Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 16-31th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• The Syrian civil war continues with Turkish public opinion largely opposed to an intervention. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) has seized on the mood in an attempt to win back political ground from the AKP.
• A high-ranking U.S. military official tells Turkish academics that Washington will likely maintain its passive stance on Syria unless authorized by the UN Security Council or NATO.
• Turkey views Kurdish fighters in Syria as a threat amidst ongoing PKK-TSK violence. But a high-profile court case and international focus on Kurdish hunger strikers may provide an opportunity for new discourse between the government and the country’s largest minority.
• Another oil export dispute between the Kurdish Regional Government and Baghdad threatens to further undermine the Turkey-Iraq relationship.
• South Stream continues to motor forward but the European Commission is not yet ready to offer special exemptions to the Moscow-led project. This may lead to further delays in its realization.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.11.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #43
11/05/2012
The OSCE has issued a generally positive assessment of the voting process at the parliamentary election in Ukraine, however it has criticized the establishing of results as not transparent enough. This opinion is presented in a joint statement issued by the head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly delegation, Walburga Habsburg Douglas, and the head of the OSCE/ODIHR long-term observation mission, Audrey Glover, on 29 October 2012, the news and analysis website Lb.ua has reported. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 06.11.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #42
10/29/2012
On 28 October, after the parliamentary election took place and polling stations were closed at 2000 local time, leading Ukrainian sociological companies publicized the results of their exit polls. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 30.10.2012  |  External Relations
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In this research, we attempt to take a more pragmatic approach towards the topic of the conflict resolution process between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. We believe this process remains in a dangerous state of stalemate at the time of writing. More specifically, we ask whether economic incentives could help break the current deadlock. In order to do this, we posed a series of questions to a notable range of international experts familiar with the conflict, asking as to whether an approach towards conflict resolution where Armenia would return some land to Azerbaijan in return for the latter providing access to regional energy and infrastructure projects could contribute towards breaking the stalemate. The “return of land”, in the context of our research, refers primarily to the seven districts of Azerbaijan which Armenian forces took during the Karabakh war of the 1990s and which remains under Armenian control to this day. We do not assume the “return of land” to mean the return of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave itself. At the outset of our research, we were optimistic that the “economic incentives” approach could offer a fresh dimension to conflict resolution in relation to the current stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh. We felt that all parties could exercise a degree of “Caucasus pragmatism” if the right arguments were appropriately presented to governments and public, bearing in mind the widespread desire to see the region “take off” economically. Click here to read more.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.10.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 1-15th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:

• Syria and Turkey exchange artillery fire throughout October, and a Syrian airliner thought to be carrying Russian military equipment is forced to land in Turkey.
• The plane incident could have implications for Turkey’s vital Russian gas supplies, if the relationship between the two countries deteriorates.
• PKK violence continues unabated as the underlying issues facing Turkey’s Kurdish population are ignored for short-term solutions.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 25.10.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #40
10/15/2012
There are political prisoners in Ukraine, the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine, Jan Tombinski, has said.
“Ukraine has political prisoners and one can hear this statement even from individuals who are closely connected to the current. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 23.10.2012  |  External Relations
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Paul Pryce
EGF Affiliated Expert on Conflict Management and the OSCE Institutions

Since the outbreak of initial hostilities in November 1990, the Transnistrian conflict persists. While numerous initiatives have been proposed over the past two decades both by external actors and by the parties to the conflict, the de jure Moldovan government and the de facto Transnistrian authorities, little progress has been made to secure a more lasting peace. Click here to read more.

• Paul Pryce  |  Published on EGF: 17.10.2012  |  Security
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ISSUE #39
10/08/2012
On 3 October 2012, President Viktor Yanukovych met in Kiev the heads of Ukraine's diplomatic offices abroad. The meeting was also attended by OSCE Secretary-General Lamberto Zannier and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, according to a report by the news and analysis portal Lb.ua. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 13.10.2012  |  External Relations
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To check the insights into Turkish domestic and international politics during September 16-30th 2012 please see our Turkey File, updated by John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Prime Minister Erdogan leads the AKP party Congress, appearing to position himself for a presidential run in 2014.
• Syria’s civil war is causing violence to flare between the PKK and Turkish security forces (TSK). The porous nature of the Syrian-Turkish border is causing further domestic tensions, as the country’s population remains ambivalent about intervention.
• The Sledgehammer coup case concludes with a conviction and the TSK in its barracks.
• Turkey’s domestic energy needs hit citizens’ wallets as the government cuts subsidies and attempts to increase imports from Iraqi Kurdistan.
• Turkey’s economic success is built on risky factors according to some investors, despite its 8 percent growth.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.10.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #38
10/01/2012
President Viktor Yanukovych has refused to comment on the US Senate recent resolution on Ukraine. "I would say any assessment should be treated in earnest: whether it is biased or not, adopted according to procedures or not. It is not up to us to judge the US Senate," he said in the USA on 26 September 2012. However, Yanukovych noted that the Senate stance was slightly different from that of the Department of State and the White House. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 08.10.2012  |  External Relations
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