A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Lietuvos Dujos confirms its decision to spin off its gas transport business by the 31st of July 2013, with Gazprom and E.On expected to sell their stakes in the Lithuanian gas utility by October 2014; Gazprom agrees a deal with the Czech-based MND Group to construct a new underground gas storage facility in the Czech Republic by 2016; Gazprom signs a long-term gas supply contract with Serbia; Gazprom denies reports that it has offered to fund the restructuring of Cypriot banks in exchange for gas exploration rights in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone
• Gazprom is unlikely to offer significant gas price cuts to Ukraine, as the company dismisses Ukrainian plans to import more gas from other European sources; The European Commission supports the idea of a trilateral consortium including Naftogaz, Gazprom, and European energy companies to manage Ukraine’s gas transport system
• Nord Stream has operated at just 27 percent of its capacity since the launch of the second string in October 2012
• Gazprom is reportedly considering constructing a spur of South Stream to Greece, but stands by its decision to remove the Greece-Italy connection from the project. The fate of South Stream’s spur to Greece may well be decided by the outcome of the privatisation of Greece’s national gas utility, DEPA, in which Gazprom is considering bidding for a stake
• Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) sign a Memorandum of Understanding on gas supplies via the Eastern route, and hope to sign a gas supply contract by the end of 2013
• Russia’s Energy Ministry supports proposals for the export of LNG by Novatek and Rosneft to the Asia-Pacific region, but insists that Gazprom retains its monopoly on gas exports to Europe; Gazprom to complete its purchase of Kyrgyzstan’s national gas system by the end of March.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.04.2013  |  External Relations
•  

ISSUE # 11
04/01/2013
On 25 March 2013, the government approved a plan to adapt Ukrainian laws to EU legislation. According to the plan, Ukraine is expected to pass a number of legal acts to liberalize visa regulations with the EU and sign the association agreement in 2013. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 03.04.2013  |  External Relations
•  

In a recently hosted international panel by Voice of Russia America to discuss the second anniversary of the conflict in Syria, Mikhail Roschin, EGF Affiiated Expert on radical Islam in the North Caucasus and Central Asia speaks about the national uprisings that put Syria on the path to civil war and so far more than 70,000 people have been killed in the violence between rebel opposition groups and the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. To listen to this discussion, please click here.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 03.04.2013  |  Security
•  

ISSUE # 10
03/25/2013
On 21 March 2013, the head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine, Jan Tombinski, said that the signing of the association agreement between Ukraine and the EU would largely depend on the conclusions to be made by European Parliament ex-President Pat Cox and Polish ex-President Aleksander Kwasniewski upon completion of their mission. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 28.03.2013  |  External Relations
•  

By George Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

In November 2012, the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Center for a New American Security published a series of papers built upon the "global swing states" concept launched by Daniel Kliman and Richard Fontaine in a report on: "Global Swing States: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and the Future of International Order". READ MORE

• George Niculescu  |  Published on EGF: 25.03.2013  |  Security
•  

Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Talks continue between Ocalan and the government, with a ceasefire being mentioned ahead of the March 21 Nevruz holiday.
• The autonomy of Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq leave Ankara anxious of the PKK exploiting increasingly fluid borders should peace talks fail.
• Turkey continues to avoid direct military intervention in Syria’s civil war, although fear of the conflict spreading has the country on edge.
• Ratings agencies think Turkey’s ability to cut its current-account deficit will fade over 2013. The central bank’s use of foreign cash in its monetary policies leaves the economy open to global shocks.
• Reliance on energy imports is fueling the growing account deficit, and Turkey’s lack of storage infrastructure prevents the country from sitting on supplies for later use.
• Turkey’s eastern provinces may hold shale gas deposits, while NABUCCO and TANAP’s intelligence sharing agreement will help diversify the country’s import markets

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.03.2013  |  External Relations
•  

ISSUE # 09
03/18/2013
On 13 March 2013, European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Stefan Fuele said in a speech to the European Parliament that the matter of selective justice in Ukraine is critical to the relations between Brussels and Kiev. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 20.03.2013  |  External Relations
•  

ISSUE # 08
03/11/2013
On 6 March 2013, the Supreme Administrative Court of Ukraine decided to strip ex- Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko's lawyer and opposition Fatherland faction MP, Serhiy Vlasenko, of his seat in parliament. In particular, the court ruled that Vlasenko had been illegally combining his jobs as a lawyer and an MP. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 13.03.2013  |  External Relations
•  

Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 16-28 February 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Negotiations over constitutional reform continue, with an agreement over the Chief of the General staff having been reached.
• AKP negotiators continue to push for a more powerful presidency, but opposition parties fear a lack of legislative and judicial checks on the office.
• Talks continue between the government and PKK leader Ocalan, though decades of conflict make a political solution remote in the short-term.
• A tense standoff in northern Syria between Kurdish and Arab fighters resembles similar conflicts for Kurdish minorities in other countries around the region. Ankara hopes that an agreement can be reached to keep northern Syria from becoming a PKK safe haven.
• An Israel-Turkey pipeline is impossible without Erdogan’s permission. Turkish energy firms specify their commitments in Iraq while trying to navigate the impasse between Erbil and Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.03.2013  |  External Relations
•  

ISSUE # 07
03/04/2013
The EU-Ukraine summit was held in Brussels on 25 February 2013. In the course of the meeting the sides discussed the prospects for signing the association agreement at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius in November. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 06.03.2013  |  External Relations
•