Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 1-15th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• Hostilities erupt between Kurdish fighters and the FSA in Syria, with some Kurdish groups siding with the opposition forces.
• Prime Minister Erdogan condemns Israel in the latest round of fighting between the Jewish state and Hamas controlled Gaza.
• A month long hunger strike by Kurdish prisoners in Turkey is close to being called off as the PKK and the government hold talks.
• The AKP pushes through a draft law designating new municipalities, although the opposition claims they have gerrymandered for an advantage in upcoming elections.
• The government gives the go-ahead to sell electricity to Syria despite the current impasse with Damascus.
• Turkey threatens ENI over its Cyprus exploration bid, while Tehran and Ankara renegotiate ahead of the cessation of the “take or pay” natural gas contracts.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 28.11.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #45
11/19/2012
On 13 November 2012, the pro-presidential Party of Regions registered a bill enabling repeat elections to be held in single-seat constituencies. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 22.11.2012  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Lithuania files a €1.5bn ($2bn) lawsuit against Gazprom, claiming the Russian company has abused its position as monopoly gas exporter to Lithuania since 2004
• RWE Transgas wins a landmark case against Gazprom, as it refuses to pay fines for breaking the ‘take-or-pay’ clauses in its gas supply contract
• Naftogaz reaches an agreement with Germany’s RWE Trading for trial gas supplies via Poland
• Gazprom officially launches the second line of Nord Stream, and announces plans for two additional lines
• South Stream gets the green light to be realised on the territories of Serbia and Hungary, with similar developments expected in relation to Bulgaria and Slovenia in November
• Gazprom confirms the development of the Chayandinskoe gas field and related pipeline infrastructure as part of its plan to increase LNG exports to the Asia-Pacific region
• Gazprom signs a contract for LNG supplies to India and announces an increase in its LNG supplies to South Korea
• Gazprom officially launches gas production at the Bovanenkovo gas field, as part of its Yamal Megaproject
• Rosneft cements its role in Russia’s gas sector, but supports Gazprom’s continued export monopoly

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 15.11.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #44
11/12/2012
On 8 November 2012, the Ukrainian Central Electoral Commission (CEC) concluded the processing of 100 percent of official vote count reports in the national multipleseat constituency in the 28 October parliamentary election. According to the obtained results, the pro-presidential Party of Regions garnered 30 percent of the popular vote, United Opposition Fatherland - 25.54 percent, boxing champion Vitaliy Klitschko's party UDAR – 13.96 percent , the Communist Party of Ukraine – 13.18 percent and the far-right all-Ukrainian Freedom association – 10.44 percent. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 14.11.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 16-31th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• The Syrian civil war continues with Turkish public opinion largely opposed to an intervention. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) has seized on the mood in an attempt to win back political ground from the AKP.
• A high-ranking U.S. military official tells Turkish academics that Washington will likely maintain its passive stance on Syria unless authorized by the UN Security Council or NATO.
• Turkey views Kurdish fighters in Syria as a threat amidst ongoing PKK-TSK violence. But a high-profile court case and international focus on Kurdish hunger strikers may provide an opportunity for new discourse between the government and the country’s largest minority.
• Another oil export dispute between the Kurdish Regional Government and Baghdad threatens to further undermine the Turkey-Iraq relationship.
• South Stream continues to motor forward but the European Commission is not yet ready to offer special exemptions to the Moscow-led project. This may lead to further delays in its realization.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.11.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #43
11/05/2012
The OSCE has issued a generally positive assessment of the voting process at the parliamentary election in Ukraine, however it has criticized the establishing of results as not transparent enough. This opinion is presented in a joint statement issued by the head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly delegation, Walburga Habsburg Douglas, and the head of the OSCE/ODIHR long-term observation mission, Audrey Glover, on 29 October 2012, the news and analysis website Lb.ua has reported. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 06.11.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #42
10/29/2012
On 28 October, after the parliamentary election took place and polling stations were closed at 2000 local time, leading Ukrainian sociological companies publicized the results of their exit polls. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 30.10.2012  |  External Relations
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In this research, we attempt to take a more pragmatic approach towards the topic of the conflict resolution process between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. We believe this process remains in a dangerous state of stalemate at the time of writing. More specifically, we ask whether economic incentives could help break the current deadlock. In order to do this, we posed a series of questions to a notable range of international experts familiar with the conflict, asking as to whether an approach towards conflict resolution where Armenia would return some land to Azerbaijan in return for the latter providing access to regional energy and infrastructure projects could contribute towards breaking the stalemate. The “return of land”, in the context of our research, refers primarily to the seven districts of Azerbaijan which Armenian forces took during the Karabakh war of the 1990s and which remains under Armenian control to this day. We do not assume the “return of land” to mean the return of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave itself. At the outset of our research, we were optimistic that the “economic incentives” approach could offer a fresh dimension to conflict resolution in relation to the current stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh. We felt that all parties could exercise a degree of “Caucasus pragmatism” if the right arguments were appropriately presented to governments and public, bearing in mind the widespread desire to see the region “take off” economically. Click here to read more.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.10.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 1-15th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:

• Syria and Turkey exchange artillery fire throughout October, and a Syrian airliner thought to be carrying Russian military equipment is forced to land in Turkey.
• The plane incident could have implications for Turkey’s vital Russian gas supplies, if the relationship between the two countries deteriorates.
• PKK violence continues unabated as the underlying issues facing Turkey’s Kurdish population are ignored for short-term solutions.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 25.10.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #40
10/15/2012
There are political prisoners in Ukraine, the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine, Jan Tombinski, has said.
“Ukraine has political prisoners and one can hear this statement even from individuals who are closely connected to the current. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 23.10.2012  |  External Relations
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