Political Outlook for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt

Key points:

• Morocco’s monarchy seems to have survived the wind of change blowing on Arab countries last year and is currently trying to hold on to its power by allowing reforms that partly reduce its absolute authority.
• The adoption of a new constitution and the victory of moderate and nationalist Islamic parties are signs that mark Morocco’s gradual progress towards the demands of protesters who have taken the streets last year.
• However, civil society is not yet a primary actor in Moroccan politics and a widespread sense of communalism is still missing.
• Tensions are still present in Morocco, due to the unresponsiveness of the central government regarding the high levels of unemployment, structural corruption and deficiencies in welfare and health systems.
• Morocco has been praised by the international community for its counter-terrorism efforts, although major security risks stem from the unresolved situation of West Sahara. High unemployment and persisting poverty, however, continue to ensure fertile grounds for terrorist recruiters.
• New economic deals with the EU are expected to have a positive impact on the Moroccan economy, which is of great interest for foreign direct investors.
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• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.05.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #14
04/16/2012
On 10 April 2012, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) announced its decision on several provisions of the law on electing MPs. In particular, the court ruled that the law provision allowing candidates to simultaneously run on party lists and in single-seat constituencies was unconstitutional. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 24.04.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #15
04/23/2012
On 19-20 April 2012, a Kharkiv court held a preliminary hearing in the case against former Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko over the activity of the corporation United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU). The Ukrainian news and analysis website Lb.ua reported that based on the results of the preliminary hearing, the judge presiding over the case, Kostyantyn Sadovskyy, had dismissed an appeal submitted by the former prime minister's defence to suspend the trial until Tymoshenko recovers. Furthermore, the court prohibited photo shooting, video filming and broadcasting of the trial, which was requested by the defence. Several other motions were also dismissed. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 24.04.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 2012

Key Points:

• Turkey closes its embassy in Syria and openly discusses establishing buffer zones inside its southern neighbour for refugees fleeing the conflict zones.
• There is discontent within Turkey’s Shia Muslim minority about the AKP government’s criticism of the Alawite Assad regime, raising concern about possible ethnic tension in areas near the Turkey-Syria border.
• Turkey releases two high profile journalists under investigation in the Ergenekon trial, but opens a second investigation into comments made by one of them to the press upon his release.
• Iraqi leaders envisage future export routes for the country’s oil through Turkey in case of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the two countries’ economic ties grow as the Kurdish north becomes a prime export market for Turkish products.
• Turkey will go forward with its lawsuit against Iran for short-supplying on a natural gas contract.
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• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.04.2012  |  Markets
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector

Key points:

• Greece – Gazprom appears set to take part in the tender for the purchase of Greek state monopoly DEPA SA, with the aim of gaining direct access to local gas consumers
• Israel – Gazprom continues to negotiate some form of participation in the Israeli ‘Leviathan’ and ‘Tamar’ gas fields. A preliminary agreement for the purchase of 2‐3 million tons of LNG has already been reached as Gazprom strengthens its position in the Southern European gas markets.
• Ukraine – European investors are losing interest in the modernisation of Ukraine’s gas transportation system (GTS), suggesting a possible Gazprom‐Naftogaz deal as Gazprom seeks direct access to Ukrainian gas consumers.
• Ukraine – The winter dispute over the short supply of Russian gas to Western Europe via Ukraine continues as Gazprom and Naftogaz trade mutual accusations.
• Nord Stream – The European Commission has ruled that 33‐50 percent of the capacity of the two pipelines (NEL and OPAL) which connect Nord Stream to the rest of Germany’s gas infrastructure must be reserved for Third Party Access, potentially forcing Nord Stream to operate at less than full capacity.
• Lithuania – Gazprom is trying to challenge the conditions of the EU Third Energy Package in court, with Lithuania the test case. Yet the most Gazprom can hope to achieve is a delay in the unbundling of Lietuvos Dujos.
• Lithuania – In a bid to reduce its dependency on expensive Russian gas supplies Lithuania is seeking alternative suppliers and has proposed a gas swap deal with Gazprom. However, a more realistic diversification option seems to be the construction of a new gas import pipeline from Poland.
• Europe – Negative operating results and the continued disparity between spot market and long‐term contract prices are prompting European energy companies to seek price concessions from Gazprom.
• Russia – An increase in revenues from higher Russian domestic gas prices looks set to be offset by an increase in the Mineral Extraction Tax rate for Gazprom. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy are discussing a new draft law that would deprive Gazprom of 80 to 100 percent of the potential extra profits from higher domestic gas prices. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 16.04.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #13
04/09/2012
On 5 April 2012, the Prosecutor-General's Office of Ukraine (PGO) resumed an investigation into the criminal case launched over the killing of politician and businessman Yevhen Shcherban in 1996. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 12.04.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #12
04/02/2012
A court will start to consider a new case launched against former Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko in the nearest future.
On 29 March 2012, Kharkiv Region's prosecutor Hennadiy Tyurin said that the prosecutor's office had submitted to the Kharkiv Kiev district court materials of the criminal case against Tymoshenko over alleged fraudulent activity of the United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU) company. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 05.04.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #11
03/26/2012
On 21 March 2012, the Ukrainian parliament adopted in the first reading a bill on the implementation of a resolution by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.
The author of the document, MP of the pro-government Party of Regions Ivan Popesku, said that “the draft resolution was stripped of political pressure and a political overtone. It envisions the implementation of the EU requirements by Ukraine in the section on the need to align the Ukrainian legislation with the EU norms and standards and, in particular, in the judicial sector.” READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 29.03.2012  |  External Relations
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Claudia Nocente
EGF Researcher, Global Security

Egypt’s Islamic state on the horizon

Egypt is once again in the headlines. The results of the first, allegedly, free elections after the ousting of Hosni Mubarak as the Egyptian president are causing widespread concern, especially in the West, about the country’s process towards democratization. Many fear that the legacy of the former political establishment will haunt the country for many years to come. Egyptians have been denied any aspect of a wealthy social and political life and are now concerned about the fruits of their courageous actions and the new seeds last year’s events have implanted. What will Egypt look like a year from now? Will it end up embracing a hardline Islamist direction in the administration of political power? READ MORE

• Claudia Nocente  |  Published on EGF: 22.03.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #10
03/19/2012
Ukraine and the European Union intend to initial the association agreement in Brussels on 30 March 2012. At the same time, MPs of the pro-government Party of Regions registered in parliament a draft resolution “On adopting the association agreement including a deep and comprehensive free trade area between Ukraine and the EU”. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 21.03.2012  |  External Relations
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