January 2011

Key Points:
• The Nabucco pipeline received several pieces of good news in January, but there is little sign of any movement towards commencement of construction works. Further, Italy’s ENI has rejected any possible suggestions that Nabucco could merge with Russia’s South Stream.

• Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Erdogan, has responded to criticisms that new laws advocating the restrictions of alcohol reflect an infringement on personal freedoms of Turkish citizens.

• The widely discussed “conspiracy” of the Sledgehammer coup plot is once again in the lime light, as prosecutors allege plans by the plotters to bomb two Istanbul mosques.

• Following the release of 5 members of the banned (Turkish) Hizbullah organisation in January, a fiery securitypolitical debate has erupted as to whether there is a link between the AKP government and the outlawed group.

• While Istanbul hosts talks between the P5 +1 and Iran over the latter’s nuclear ambitions, Turkey sits out the meeting. A settlement on Cyprus appears impossible after Turkey and the EU sit out January talks in Geneva, with some critics saying this is the end for Turkey’s own EU accession negotiations.

• A day after Saudi Arabia halted its efforts in support of the formation of a new government in Lebanon, the joint Turkish/Qatari mission followed suit, claiming that the disputing Lebanese factions indicated reservations with external proposals to help broker a deal. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.01.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #01
01/24/2011

On January 13-th, 2011, the Ministry of Foreign Affaires of the Czech republic has decided to grant political asylum to Bogdan Danylyshyn. As a reminder, the former Minister of Economy is accused of embezzlement in Ukraine. On October 2010, he was detained on the territory of the Czech Republic upon Interpol request. Later, Kiev demanded his extradition and the accused has asked for a political asylum in the Czech Republic. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 25.01.2011  |  External Relations
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Baltic Rim Economies
Issue NO.6,17 December 2010

• Baltic Rim Economies  |  Published on EGF: 29.12.2010  |  Markets
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Reviewed by Professor Andrej Kreutz

Markedly different from Helen Belopolski’s monograph ‘Russia and the Challengers: Russian Alignment with China, Iran, and Iraq in the Unipolar Era,’ which I have already reviewed, Jeffery Mankoff’s work, which was published as a Council on Foreign Relations Book, cannot claim to be a non-partisan and purely analytical study.

• Andrej Kreutz  |  Published on EGF: 22.12.2010  |  External Relations
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December 2010

Key positions:
• In recent months Turkey has witnessed harsh prison sentences and threats of litigation by Turkish authorities in response to Kurdish protests and unfavourable press respectively in the past months. This is a worrying sign in that after nearly a decade in power, AKP authorities have become just as reactionary as the military backed governments of previous decades, only this time with an Islamic tinge.

• At the NATO Lisbon Summit on November 19-20, Ankara claimed victory for swaying its allies away from designating Iran as the main threat facing the alliance with regards to a proposed missile defence system which NATO is currently considering. While Turkish government officials indicated prior to the conference that they would demand command and control of the system if based on their territory, in Lisbon, that decision was put off for future discussion.

• Wikileaks’ release of American diplomatic cables have detailed the gossip and personalities of leading AKP politicians, but offered little else that could be described as damaging.

• In regional energy developments, Russia and its energy subsidiary, Gazprom, have been opting for pragmatism over threats in recent months by signing deals throughout the region with Bulgaria, Serbia, and Ukraine in order to strengthen prospects of realising the South Stream gas pipeline. Brussels and Sofia, for their part, have reached an agreement on bank guarantees for Nabucco (the EU’s rival to South Stream). READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.12.2010  |  External Relations
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Issue 1: November/December 2010

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

Half a year after the gas dispute with Belarus, Gazprom has created a new ‘daughter’ company in Minsk, Gazprom Transgas West, as a potential operator of the Belarusian stretch of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. The current operator of the section in question is Beltransgaz, in which Gazprom holds a 50% stake. However, the new ‘daughter’ company, which will exercise complete control over the Belarusian section of the pipeline, will be completely controlled by Gazprom. Although few experts predicted that another gas dispute in 2010 was likely, since the current contract between Gazprom and Beltransgaz does not expire until the end of 2011, establishment of Transgas West implies that Moscow has been taking steps to prepare for the likelihood of future dispute scenarios. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.12.2010  |  Energy
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The Gorshenin Institute has asked experts about the key positive and negative aspects of the resolution on Ukraine adopted by the European Parliament. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 15.12.2010  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #21
12/03/2010

On November 26th, 2010 in Moscow after the Ukrainian-Russian Intergovernmental Commission President of Ukraine announced that he did not rule out Ukraine entering the Customs Union (CU) with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. He added that, in order to achieve that goal certain amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine should be made, which according to him could be done either in the Parliament or by a National referendum. Earlier, in April, Viktor Yanukovych has expressed an opposite opinion regarding this matter. 'Ukraine has made a choice in favor of joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). Ukraine is already integrated in the WTO and today Ukraine entering the Customs Union would be impossible', -he said. th As a reminder, on November 25 European Parliament adopted a resolution on Ukraine. In this document European legislators are calling on Ukraine to make all effort to finish negotiation on an agreement as to the Association Treaty between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine in the first half of 2011. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 14.12.2010  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #20
11/26/2010

November 22nd, in Brussels 14-th Summit European Union (EU) -Ukraine got underway.
The President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso, the President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy and the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych took part in the summit. During the meeting delegates discussed the process of reforms in Ukraine, relations between Ukraine and the EU, as well as the issues of regional cooperation. Also the parties signed the protocol to the Cooperation and Partnership agreement, that outlines main principles of Ukraine's participation in EU's programs.
The key moment of the Summit was EU's proposition of the Action Plan to grant Ukraine visa-free travel for short stays in EU countries. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 13.12.2010  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #19
11/19/2010

Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission in Ukraine Thanos Arvanitis said that Ukraine had fulfilled all main obligations within the framework of the cooperation program with the IMF. Prime-Minister of Ukraine Nikolay Azarov predicts that by the end of 2010 the Board of Directors of the IMF would decide on granting Ukraine the second tranche of the loan in the amount of 1.6 billion dollars. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 12.12.2010  |  External Relations
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