Peace on Paper, Pressure in Practice: Why Baku Isn’t Rushing the Deal
Interview with Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
In a wide-ranging conversation with Radio Free Europe Georgian service, Kogan offers a stark assessment of the much-hyped Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal. Though labelled “historic”, the agreement remains stalled. Baku, holding the stronger hand, is in no rush to finalize it—using the drawn-out process to pressure Armenia into further concessions, including the Zangezur corridor and constitutional changes on Nagorno-Karabakh. Meanwhile, Armenia, increasingly isolated and eager to sign, lacks meaningful alternatives or strong international backing. Without a neutral mediator and amid shifting regional alliances—especially Georgia’s pivot toward Moscow—the deal looks more like a tool of leverage than a step toward lasting peace.
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| External Relations | The Caucasus and the Black Sea
