Professor Andrej Kreutz, EGF expert on trans-Atlantic security, reviews the recent webcast of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Denisov, Andrei Ivanovich

Published on EGF: 17.10.2011

by Andrej Kreutz

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Andrei Ivanovich Denisov, likes to see the world in a dialectical way, perceiving the linkage of its social and political developments. According to him, the present historical period, which began after the outbreak of the recent global crisis in 2009, is a time of upheavals and subsequent instability. Consequently, the role of diplomacy now is to minimize the possible negative impact of political instability taking place at the global level and to look for less conflict-ridden international relations.

At the same time, Denisov does not want to be pessimistic. In his view, the global economic situation is mostly under control and there are premises to suggest economic recovery. He also believes that despite all recent tensions in Russian-American relations, it would be too early to consider the “reset” in the relationship instigated at the start of the Obama US presidency as a failure. In his view, even while facing the most critical problems and severe conflicts of interest, both sides should always try to find a possible solution.

Although not a pessimist, Denisov is not an optimist either. Well aware of the threats to his country, he basically agrees with the famous statement of Emperor Alexander the 3^rd , that Russia has in fact only two allies to rely on: its army and its navy.  Its enormous territory, which is difficult to defend, and its extended boundaries make the preservation of the powerful armed forces an absolute imperative for the nation’s survival. While Russia does not have any aggressive aspirations, and may not face the threat of a direct foreign attack, it has to deal with a number of new security challenges even as the old ones continue to persist.

Denisov admits that Russian relations with the other UN Security Council members “have never been gracious and are neither gracious now, for that matter.” He expresses concern about the prospect of US anti-ballistic missile deployment in Europe and says that “security of one country should not be achieved at the cost of security of the others.” It may be recalled that many years ago, former US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, argued that the absolute security of one country would mean absolute insecurity of all the others. Russia is in an apparently difficult situation and its leadership needs to search for an accommodation with the Western powers, which is by no means easy to find. The manipulation by the US media and politicians of Russian attorney Sergei Magnitzky’s death in prison might be seen as an example of the widespread American hostility towards Russia. Denisov sees that case as an American relapse into an old bad habit of overwhelming national pride and contempt for his country, but he hopes that with time such attitudes will change.

On the brighter side, Denisov stresses the importance of the BRICS group fo countries as a new and promising form of international cooperation with states with similar, although by no means the same, levels of power and world views. Although some Western analysts, are skeptical  or even critical about Russia’s participation in the BRICS group of states, which places it together with Brazil, India, China and South Africa, Denisov strongly supports the motion.

Some believe, however, that there is a strong logic supporting Denisov positioning Russia in the BRICS group, in spite of all the demographic and historical differences between the Russian Federation and its BRICS partners. In terms of general level of development and global interests, Russia is much closer to this group than to the US, or even to the internally divided EU.  Russia has no chance of being admitted to the EU, with a similar outlook likely for Ukraine and some other post-Soviet republics. Russia needs to evolve into a separate and independent power centre and the other BRICS nations are also in a similar situation. This does not mean, however, that the Russian Federation might be alienated from Europe.

Denisov indicates that the EU countries are now becoming more open to Russian citizens than before, and he looks forward to visa-free movement between his country and the rest of Europe. He ends the interview by quoting Gorbachev’s frequent remark that “processes are going on”.

As once stated by the American analyst, George Friedman, in marked difference to the US and Canada, Russia is an old country whose “history is a chronicle of the agony of surviving invasion after invasion”. The challenges which the present Russian leadership faces are nothing new in the country’s history, despite the fact that  many experts feel that the problems facing Russia  now are more critical than they have ever been in the past. Denisov, however, is apparently willing to keep his faith in the future of his nation. Time will tell if he is right. 

Click here for the Webcast interview of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Andrei Denisov.

 |  External Relations  |  Russia, Ukraine, Belarus