EGF Turkey File
by EGF Editorial EGF Turkey File June 2012 www gpf europe com Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during June 2012 Key Points Syria shoots down a Turkish military plane greatly heightening tensions between the countries Although Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan threatens action in response to any further threats from Syria domestic opinion polls from just prior to the incident show a Turkish public hesitant to confront the Assad regime Meanwhile the CHP and AKP party leadership meets in an attempt to revive reconciliation efforts with the country s Kurdish minority As constitution discussions continue Erdogan s statements on the necessity of a strong presidential office worries his critics who fear he will take over and extend his reign as head of the country following the end of his term as prime minister In the energy sector Azerbaijan and Turkey appear to have finalized the TANAP pipeline agreement while Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz discusses the future of nuclear power in Turkey at the World Economic Forums Page 1 of 4 EGF Turkey File June 2012 www gpf europe com Syria incident and relations with Syria more broadly CHP deputy chairman on foreign relations Faruk Logoglu To begin this edition a prediction made in the May asserted that while he blamed the majority of the 2012 EGF Turkey file saying that the al Assad regime violence in Syria on al Assad loyalists he also implied will continue to crack down on dissidents at home in that Erdogan was positioning himself as a Sunni the harshest measures as it did in Houla while standard bearer for Western efforts to roll back Shiite avoiding any potential conflict that could justify an Iran s influence in the Middle East intervention by Turkey or its Western allies has been proven wrong in short order While many Western and Arab observers now see the shooting as the straw that broke the camel s back in While accounts vary as to the exact location of the the Syria Turkey relationship the Erdogan incident all agree that on June 22 an unarmed Turkish government faces a largely apathetic public response military jet was shot down near the Turkish Syrian to the extremely complex situation unfolding on the maritime border by Syrian military forces Ankara has ground in Syria While Turkey s Alevis remain taken its case to NATO and while alliance members skeptical of the Sunni lead opposition movement have backed Turkey in its condemnation of the opposing al Assad Turkey s Kurdish minority is downing sources in Brussels are skeptical of Turkey s equally skeptical of the country s leadership as Turkish assurances that the plane was on a routine mission armed forces TSK continue combat PKK militants in when shot down Turkey has said that while the flight the country s southeast This divided domestic scene path accidently crossed Syrian airspace the shooting will make any military action by Turkey unpalatable took place over international waters unless Syrian forces strike first With the presence of TSK armored divisions increasingly visible on the Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan has responded to the Turkey Syria border however such a scenario should incident with the position that any Syrian military not be ruled out entirely As Turkish foreign policy movements within the proximity of the countries chief Ahmed Davutoglu s zero problems with the mutual border will be viewed as a threat and has neighbours ideology rolls back into the 1990s when deployed mechanized and anti aircraft units to the Turkey and Syria were on the brink of war nothing border should be taken for granted Despite the downing public opinion in Turkey is strongly opposed to an escalation with Syria A recent Kurdish issues poll in Turkey revealed that 56 percent of respondents oppose an intervention compared to 11 percent who Syria aside the main opposition CHP s leader Kemal would support one There was also a lack of support Kilicdaroglu met with Prime Minister Erdogan and for arming Syria s rebels with only around eight other leaders from the country s two main parties to percent in favor while only around 15 percent discuss the future of the country s Kurdish approved of the establishment of security zones by reconciliation process The meeting was requested by the military However it should be noted that the Kilicdarglu to discuss a recently updated CHP draft of survey by the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy a 1989 roadmap to solve the country s most divisive Studies was conducted prior to the downing of the conflict Turkish military aircraft While self congratulations were expressed after the In the meantime domestic opposition specifically meeting those hopeful for the end of the strife are from the CHP and Kurdish BDP has continued to heap likely to look back to a similar meeting between the criticism of Erdogan s AKP government in light of the two men on the issue in July 2010 that led to little Page 4 of 4 EGF Turkey File June 2012 www gpf europe com gain The AKP s own conciliatory measures towards Given the progress Turkey has made both the Kurdish minority can only be described as a short democratically and economically under Erdogan s term failure with an uptick of violence and the jailing stewardship over the last decade it is understandable of Kurdish BDP deputies for ties to the outlawed PKK why he would be loathe to give up power to another only exacerbating the tension between the be they a political ally or opposition member But government and the country s largest minority following the government s fracturing of the military s influence on the country s political scene it would be However there may be hope in the long term as a dangerous precedent for Erdogan to accede to a government mandated measures of allowing Kurdish more powerful presidency position to be spoken and taught in some education programs may alleviate alienation of Turkey s Kurds as others Increasingly positive relations between Ankara and Energy the Kurdish Regional Government due to energy and economic cooperation may also foster a climate of On June 27 the leaders of Azerbaijan and Turkey greater warmth and confidence building Genuine signed what now appears to be the final agreement reconciliation however is only likely to emerge as on the TANAP pipeline a project worth an estimated part of political cultural and economic factors that are 7 billion The signing moves TANAP one step closer not entirely in the control of political actors to reality and codifies the agreements to transfer natural gas supplies from the Shah Deniz field to European markets as part of the Southern Energy Government corridor It is also possible that Turkmen gas supplies will also transit across Turkey westbound via TANAP On June 11 representatives from the Constitutional Brussels was errily silent at the news as noted here Reconciliation Commission of the Turkish parliament before that NABUCCO in its original form is now likely met with President Abdullah Gul to inform him of a thing of the past The completion of TANAP the ongoing negotiations and rally his support for their Baku Tbilisi Cayhan crude oil pipeline and the Baku work in drafting a new constitution However as the Tbilisi Erzurum are all positive steps in Europe s deal making continues critics are concerned of the diversification away from Gazprom though direction of the new government specifically if more NABUCCO s decade long preparations are now being powers are granted to the office of the president looked at as a substantial waste of time and energy by some in Brussels The position has long been seen as symbolic in comparison to the roles of the parliament and prime In other Turkish energy related developments Energy minister But comments made by Erdogan in a June Minister Taner Yildiz announced the country s television interview have unnerved some critics when intention to build 23 new nuclear power plants by he said A further step should be taken to get more 2023 at a meeting of the World Economic Forum in successful results for our country it could be either a early June With the country facing ever increasing presidential or a semi presidential system usage as the economy booms and domestic Comparisons to Russian President Vladimir Putin consumption rises the reliance of the country s have been made and while accusations of Erdogan s energy needs on a fossil fueled electric grid is dictatorial intentions are likely overblown his remarks becoming increasingly evident as a disadvantage This follow last July s parliamentary elections which last point was driven home on June 27 when a bomb Erdogan said would be his last stopped transmission of Iranian natural gas supplies to Turkey for four to five days While Europe switches off its nuclear reactors in the wake of the Fukashima Page 4 of 4 EGF Turkey File June 2012 www gpf europe com disaster in Japan developing economies like Turkey have made the gamble to go nuclear Disclaimer The information presented in this report is believed to be correct at the time of publication Please note that the contents of the report are based on materials gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources the accuracy of which we are not always in a position to guarantee EGF does not accept any liability for subsequent actions taken by third parties based on any of the information provided in our reports if such information may subsequently be proven to be inaccurate EGF Turkey File Avenue Du Manoir D Anjou 8 Published by European Geopolitical Forum SPRL Brussels 1150 Belgium Copyright European Geopolitical Forum SPRL Tel Fax 322 770 1001 Director and Founder Dr Marat Terterov info gpf europe com Email Marat Terterov gpf europe com www gpf europe com www gpf europe ru Page 4 of 4| External Relations | The Caucasus and the Black Sea |
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