Changing the Geopolitical Paradigm in the Middle East

Published on EGF: 01.12.2015

by EGF Editorial

An expert on Middle Eastern geopolitics explains why Russia has taken over the initiative in Syria and what the West is left with.

Russia’s military intervention in Syria has changed the rules of the game and threatens the balance of power in the region, as the strategic importance of the Middle East appears to decline in significance for the United States.

These were the comments of the Director of the European Geopolitical Forum, Dr Marat Terterov, to Ukrinform’s personal correspondent, following his participation in an international conference in Abu Dhabi (UAE) on conflict resolution in Syria and wider strategic relevance of the Middle East for the United States.

“It’s a known fact that America’s military might in the region is traditionally considered a security guarantee in the context of needing to safeguard oil production and supplies coming from the Middle East. This has been the case for the past 50 years. However, today this arrangement may be threatened to a certain extent. Among other reasons, this is linked to falling oil prices and America’s declining energy dependence on the region’s oil producing countries. Therefore, the strategic importance of the Middle East for the US has decreased. And now we have an additional blow – Russia’s intervention (in Syria) and the prospects of lifting of sanctions against Iran, which will grow stronger as a result,” stated Dr Terterov.

According to Terterov, the following aspects are worth considering: the situation in Syria itself, the balance of power within the country and the international factors at play in the region.

“Of course, Russia’s military intervention in view of Moscow’s aggressive airstrikes have resulted in a notable change in the rules of the game in the region. Thus the Arab world, namely the Sunni regimes of the Persian Gulf, which are fighting against President Assad, are quite concerned with this intervention. This leads to the strengthening not only of the regime in Syria, but also in Iran, which likewise supports Moscow’s actions,” noted Dr Terterov.

He also suggested that in such a situation, with Washington’s relative indecisiveness in the region set against the backdrop of Russia taking the initiative, Arab countries are beginning to perceive America as a not very reliable partner anymore.

At the same time, according to the expert, the Americans are trying to convince their Arab allies that the United States is not withdrawing from the region. This being said, the United States is the only player in the region out of the Western powers which can influence the situation and make an impact at the strategic level.  

“No other states taken separately, nor the EU, nor NATO, are capable of changing the rules of the game or the geopolitical balance of power in the Middle East without a helping hand from Washington. But as of today, I don’t see any effective steps taken by the US to challenge the Russians in Syria or the region as a whole. The administration of President Obama’s is taking the position that ‘our troops are not putting boots on the ground in Syria’,” said the expert.

Therefore, according to Dr Terterov, the West has no choice but to step up its diplomacy, including in its engagement with Moscow, Damascus and Teheran.

Andrey Lavrenyuk, BRUSSELS

 |  Energy