by Naim Ameur
Expert on political transition in Tunisia and the Maghreb

One year after the Jasmine Revolution of January 14, 2011, Tunisia has successfully advanced in its democratic transition and political reform process. The election of the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) held on October 23, 2011 was well organised, and for the first time in history, it was fair. Al-Nahdha (which means “renaissance” in Arabic), a moderate Islamic party, won 41 per cent of the NCA seats. READ MORE

• Naim Ameur  |  Published on EGF: 08.03.2012  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
February 2012

Key Points:

• A crisis erupted between state prosecutors and the intelligence service, when members from the latter refused to turn up for questioning regarding an investigation into ties to the PKK. The intervention of prime minister and the parliament have calmed matters for now, but some experts speculate the incident is a result of a break between the AKP and the Gulenist movement.
• Bloodshed in Syria continues while Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu travels to capitals throughout the world in an attempt to drum up support for an UN resolution to stop the violence there. Syrian refugees continue to flood into Turkey’s southern provinces, where the Free Syrian Army is said to be organizing the armed resistance to the regime in Damascus.
• France’s Constitutional Council invalidates the Armenian Genocide draft law passed in January, though both presidential candidates have vowed to push a reworded version upon entering office.
• The cold spell in Turkey shows the weakness in the country’s position as a net importer of gas, while supply issues with Azerbaijan and Iran drastically cut imports amidst increased use in the month. Energy Minister Taner Yildiz met with NABUCCO’s board of partners to discuss the link up of it and TANAP.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.03.2012  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
January 2012

Key Points:

• Russia’s Gazprom announces that the South Stream gas pipeline project will begin construction ahead of schedule in December 2012, putting NABUCCO in an increasingly precarious position.
• Turkey slips further down the rankings of the media watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, press freedom rankings, now 148 out of 178 countries. This development comes following the fifth anniversary of the killing of writer Hrant Dink and a ruling in the case of his death stating that it was not the result of organized crime.
• Former Turkish Military (TSK) Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug, was arrested on charges of supporting websites that were part of a conspiracy to overthrow the government. The military remains quiet on the matter, indicating that the ruling AKP government has triumphed in keeping the TSK under full civilian control. But the wide swath of those accused of complicity in conspiracy investigations continues to draw criticism at home and abroad.
• Both houses of the French parliament pass a law criminalizing the denial of the Armenian genocide, with Turkish politicians voicing their outrage at the decision against a backdrop where relations between Paris and Ankara are at the lowest level in recent memory.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.02.2012  |  Markets
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ISSUE #09
03/21/2011

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has warned Ukraine about the imposition of restrictions on Ukrainian imports. "If Ukraine sets up a free trade area with the European Union (EU) and is forced to yield on many positions that are sensitive for the Ukrainian economy, then it will obviously expect that these products go to the Russian market. However, we will not be able to afford to do this," he said. Putin noted that Russia would be forced to start drawing a "boarder" with Ukraine. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 23.03.2011  |  Markets
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Ukrainians fear a serious accident at country’s nuclear power plants

The Gorshenin Institute held a telephone public opinion poll regarding nuclear safety in Ukraine on 15 and 16 March 2011. A total of 1,000 respondents aged over 18 were selected randomly in all regional centres of Ukraine, in Kiev and Sevastopol. Quotas were established based on respondents’ age, sex and area of residence. Sample error does not exceed 3.2%. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 23.03.2011  |  Markets
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On 14-28 February 2011, Gorshenin Institute conducted an all-Ukrainian telephone survey on the topic «Viktor Yanukovych: the first year in office» As many as 2,000 randomly sampled adults, aged 18 years and older, living in Ukraine’s regional centers, cities, towns and villages, including Kiev and Sevastopol, were interviewed. Gender, age, and the type of a respondent’s residence were used as quotas. The maximum margin of sampling error is +/-2.2 percentage points. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 04.03.2011  |  Markets
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Tectonic changes are occurring not only in the world financial system, trading and investment, energy, geopolitics, and technology; a fundamental transformation is also underway in the way the cities have been managed and regenerated, creating profound implications for mega-cities such as Istanbul. The global population is congregating in our cities. Eighty per cent of the world’s estimated nine billion people in 2050 are expected to live in urban areas. Our cities and urban areas face many challenges from social to health to environmental. The impacts of cities and urban areas are felt in other regions which supply cities with food, water and energy and absorb pollution and waste. However, the proximity of people, businesses and services associated with the very word ‘city’ means that there are also huge opportunities. Indeed, well designed, well managed urban settings offer a key opportunity for sustainable living.

Myriad trends indicate that the current world energy system is far from being sustainable. It will be shaped by rising demand over the long term, dominance of fossil fuels, inaccessible supplies, price volatility, inadequate investment, geopolitical tensions, and climate change. The most pressing decision facing the next generation may be how best to accelerate the transition from a fossil-fuel-based energy system to a system based on climate-friendly energy alternatives. Turkey has emerged as an important actor to reckon with as a consumer, transporter, investor, regional hub, and security provider in world energy and geopolitics. Likewise, Istanbul as a global city and gateway to the world’s major producers and consumers offers so much opportunities for energy investment, conservation, efficiency, distribution and shipment. It also faces serious energy-related challenges including from climate change, congestion, power black-outs, and local pollution. READ MORE

• Mehmet Öğütçü  |  Published on EGF: 02.02.2011  |  Energy
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Gorshenin Institute has conducted an expert survey among the representatives of investment companies (IC) about the results and the most important events of the year 2010 for the russian business in Ukraine and also about the prospects for russian companies in Ukraine in 2011. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 27.01.2011  |  Markets
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Baltic Rim Economies
Issue NO.6,17 December 2010

• Baltic Rim Economies  |  Published on EGF: 29.12.2010  |  Markets
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The publication of this collection of essays coincides with the second anniversary of the armed conflict between Russia and Georgia on August 8-12, 2009.

The first essay looks into the transformation of the Georgian armed forces under President Mikhail Saakashvili and details Tbilisi’s key preparations for the war.

• The Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies  |  Published on EGF: 16.08.2010  |  Energy
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