By Alan Whitehorn, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada

There are number of potential stress points in the ceasefire agreement signed by Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also agreed to by the president of Nagorno Karabakh on November 9th, 2020. It is a document that was signed under the duress of rapidly deteriorating war conditions for Armenians. Few within Armenia were consulted apart from some senior military leaders. It has not been ratified by the Armenian Parliament. Public disapproval has been extensive READ MORE.

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 09.12.2020  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The new war against the unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic launched by Azerbaijan on September 27, 2020, has intensified discussions among the experts on the role of the external actors in the region. Significant attention was focused on the newly gained influence of Turkey as a supporter of Azerbaijan. However, as for now, the key player in the Karabakh conflict remains Russia, and most probably, this balance will not be changed at least in the short term perspective. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 05.11.2020  |  Security
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in fierce fighting in Karabakh since September 27. Unlike in most previous clashes over this Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territory, the present conflict has involved heavy and sophisticated weaponry wielded by both sides, but especially Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces. And while the ongoing violence is essentially a conventional war fought by two professional armies, the presence of new generation, hi-tech weaponry has sharply increased its destructive potential. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 05.11.2020  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale attack along the whole line of contact with the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. This was the third flare-up in Karabakh conflict in recent four years. In April 2016, Azerbaijan again launched an attack on Karabakh, however, hostilities were stopped after four days as a result of active Russian mediation efforts without any significant changes on the ground. In July 2020, clashes broke out along the northern part of Armenia – Azerbaijan international border. However, the September 2020 attack has few in common with both April 2016 four day war and July 2020 border skirmishes. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 24.10.2020  |  Security
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By Elkhan Nuriyev, PhD, Eastern Europe-Global Area (EEGA) fellow at Leipzig University

The ongoing escalation of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is a most serious and significant one - just not surprising at all. This is mainly due to the lack of tangible progress in the OSCE Minsk Group-led peace talks between the two sides, which have been held since 1994. The absence of substantive negotiations over de-occupation of Azerbaijani territories, return of internally-displaced persons to the regions of their origin, the unblocking of transport, economic and other communications with Armenia has fueled strong skepticism about peaceful conflict resolution. Back in the summer it was evident that the smell of a new war had already hung heavily over the conflict-torn area. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 07.10.2020  |  Security
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By Khayal Iskandarov Ibrahim, Rashad Tahirov Kamal, PhD in philology, associate professor Sadi Sadiyev Saleh

Another escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh in early morning on September 27, 2020 brought Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict once again to the focus of world community. Approximately 30 years have elapsed since this conflict was initiated. However, there has not been any substantial progress in the efforts to solve the problem. The prominent political figures in Armenia, who more or less understood the consequences of their actions and endeavored to solve the problem, were either ousted or assassinated. READ MORE.

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 01.10.2020  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The July 2020 escalation along Armenia – Azerbaijan international border and following events have again put Armenia – Russia – Azerbaijan – Turkey relations in the spotlight of media and expert community. In recent years there was a wide spread perception that Azerbaijan has been making efforts to improve its relations with Russia, while Armenia – Russia relations entered an unchartered waters after the 2018 “Velvet revolution”. The large scale purchases of Russian modern weaponry by Azerbaijan were the main driver of improving bilateral relations. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 30.09.2020  |  Security
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2020 Research Digest, edited by George Vlad NICULESCU, EGF Head of Research

The 2020 European Geopolitical Forum Research Digest aimed to explore the resilience of the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) peace process driven by the implementation of the Madrid/Basic Principles, and the increased relevance of the peace context, created by various initiatives aiming to incentivize peaceful conflict resolution. It consists of three research papers drafted by distinguished Armenian, Azerbaijani, and Russian experts, who have been invited to respond generic questions such as: Are the Madrid Principles really dead? Why haven’t they been implemented so far? What are the Armenian perceived downsides of the Madrid Principles as the most plausible option for the Karabakh conflict resolution? Why does Azerbaijan support the Madrid Principles, and why does Baku believe they could still lead the way to a breakthrough in the peace process? What structural, institutional, conceptual, or operational changes could unblock the NK peace process, while taking advantage from a much needed boost of the peace context? READ MORE

By Alan Whitehorn, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada

When there is so much shelling and yelling in the South Caucasus conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, it is helpful to read a collection of thoughtful essays by knowledgeable authors from several differing countries and perspectives that appeared in The European Geopolitical Forum. Each piece is a welcome contribution, but nevertheless has key gaps and issues. I will comment on each in the order in which they appear. READ THE REVIEW

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 30.09.2020  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Tensions in the Aegean between Turkey and Greece have found an echo in the South Caucasus, with the risk of somewhat unpredictable consequences.
Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, between Turkey on the one hand, and Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, UAE and France, on the other, simmered over the summer period. There is a long history of Turkey - Greece disputes and conflicts, since the end of the WWII, such as events in 1974-1976, 1987, and 1995-1996; but the current situation can be described as unprecedented. The region now faces several intertwined conflicts: the proxy war in Libya; divergent views on the issues of demarcation in the eastern Mediterranean; and the fight for the control of large resources of natural gas and their transit routes. In the background is also the intra-Muslim struggle between the Muslim Brotherhood movement supported by Turkey and Qatar, but staunchly opposed by the Gulf monarchies and Egypt. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 23.09.2020  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

A managed process of co-operation and competition continues to characterise Turkish-Russian relations, and in the future this may also extend to the South Caucasus.
Russia-Turkey relations have experienced significant ups and downs in recent years: The warming of relations at the beginning of the 2010s; the crisis after the November 2015 shooting of a Russian military jet; the new phase of partnership from late 2016 to 2019; the new crisis as a result of direct military clashes in Syrian Idlib in January-February 2020 and Turkish support of the Government of National Accord in Libya; and another phase of normalisation after the March 5 agreement on Idlib was reached by the two presidents. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 31.08.2020  |  Security
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