EGF Forum View: Considering Greece as an Alternative Energy Corridor (99 Kb)
August 2010
Marco Pantelakis
EGF Eurasia Energy Analyst
Greece Vs Turkey
Over the last decade, two energy rings have been forming in the Balkan/Caspian oil and gas pipeline/energy supply route context, first in Turkey and then in Greece. As a result, both countries have been elevated to the role of strategic energy corridor territories, linking the energy-rich Caspian region with Europe. Both Turkey and Greece exhibit vast potential in connecting Caspian supply sources with Western markets, both independently of one another as well as in unison. Taking this into account, the EU and the US in particular have endorsed policies which have privileged Turkey as the main interconnector between Europe and the Caspian in the scramble for European energy security. However, Ankara’s current geopolitical reorientation towards Russia (with whom it has developed a pragmatic, yet strong energy partnership) and the Middle East, along with the several security-political shortcomings that undermine the stability of the Turkish energy grid, might lead toward a rethinking of Western energy policy toward the alternative, emergent Greek (energy) ring. READ MORE
- Marco Pantelakis |
Published on EGF: 29.08.2010
| External Relations
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EGF Turkey File (148 Kb)
August 2010
John Van Pool
EGF Turkey Geopolitics Analyst
Key Positions:
• Terrorism-related acts of sabotage, linked to the outlawed Kurdish-separatist group, the PKK, took place on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline on 10 August, disrupting production
• The Moscow-backed South Stream gas pipeline has been losing support amongst influential stakeholders in the region (the Italian Energy company, ENI, has raised concerns that the project will not be commercially viable)
• Turkey appears to be slowly correcting its energy policy shortcomings of the past with Russia, and Ankara now seeks a more balanced energy partnership with Moscow
• Conciliatory gestures towards Turkey’s Kurds by the present Ankara government appear to have done little to ease tensions in the country’s south east, which is heavily populated by Kurdish minorities. READ MORE
- John Van Pool |
Published on EGF: 29.08.2010
| External Relations
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The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: The Tashkent Summit Generates More Questions than Answers (275 Kb)
EGF Editorial
On June 11-12 2010 the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held their annual Summit in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, under the auspices of the (rotational) Uzbek presidency. The previous SCO Summit was held in 2009 in Yekaterinburg, Russia, where the agenda of the member states was dominated by the search for the right exit strategies out of the global economic-financial crisis, particularly those that would serve to minimise its nefarious consequences upon SCO members. In Tashkent, the agenda of SCO member country leaders was dominated by the following issues:
• Enhancement of regional stability and security
• Coordination of the intergovernmental struggle with international terrorism, extremism and separatism
• Contemporary problems relating to the above, including ongoing crisis in Afghanistan (a regional thorn for all of the SCO members) and the fallout of the political-security crisis in Kyrgyzstan
• Coordination of national and intergovernmental efforts to counter organised crime and narco-trafficking. READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 29.08.2010
| External Relations
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The Tanks of August
The publication of this collection of essays coincides with the second anniversary of the armed conflict between Russia and Georgia on August 8-12, 2009.
The first essay looks into the transformation of the Georgian armed forces under President Mikhail Saakashvili and details Tbilisi’s key preparations for the war.
- The Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies |
Published on EGF: 16.08.2010
| Energy
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The Russian–Iranian Relations after the UNSC (144 Kb)
- Russia is deceiving the West in its support for the latest round of UNSC sanctions against Iran.
- Russia continues to expand cooperation with Iran on its nuclear programme and agreements over sophisticated arms deliveries despite its moves to support sanctions.
- Russia may have an interest in expanding its political and economic cooperation with the West, but the likelihood of strategic cooperation with Iran remains stronger in the medium term.
- Russian President Medvedev’s announcement in mid-July that “Iran is close to developing nuclear weapons” occurring in parallel to Russia continuing to provide for Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities is a reflection of the pragmatic realism with which the current “diplomatic charades” involving Russia, Iran and the West should be understood.
- Marat Terterov and Marco C. Pantelakis |
Published on EGF: 04.08.2010
| External Relations
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Russian Geopolitical Power in the Black and Caspian Seas Region: Implications for Turkey and the World (164 Kb)
Exerting influence in the wider Black and Caspian Seas region is becoming a crucial element in Russia’s current geopolitical strategy. Energy and security are two of Moscow’s primary concerns relating to the region. Turkey, the EU, and the United States, as well as international energy companies will have to be aware of the operational instruments which Moscow has been deploying as part of its geopolitical strategy in the region, which include:
1) inserting itself into the domestic political affairs of its post-Soviet neighbors;
2) simultaneously acting as a crisis mediator/peacekeeper and fostering regional tension to provoke further crisis;
3) behaving as the regional “strong man” in the name of protecting Russian minorities;
4) strengthening energy ties with other former-Soviet Republics in the region; and
5) striking bilateral commercial deals with select Western corporate partners and governments. The deployment of such instruments will ensure that Moscow’s approach to regional geopolitics will remain purposefully unpredictable and full of intrigue, and will invariably continue to take other regional actors by surprise. READ MORE
- Marat Terterov, John Van Pool, Sergiy Nagornyy |
Published on EGF: 04.08.2010
| External Relations
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External Relations Briefing: Russian-Jordanian Relations (59 Kb)
Jordan has always been a moderate monarchy and, taking into account the role of the British Empire in the foundation of the Hashemite Kingdom, one of the most pro-Western regimes in the Arab East. Jordan’s well-established relations with Russia, which have become even closer and warmer during the last decade, might therefore seem surprising. However, in the Middle East, perhaps even more than in any geopolitical regions, neither generalizations nor stereotypes are able to reflect complex realities. Moscow and Amman have a number of reasons to preserve and cultivate their cooperation
- Andrej Kreutz |
Published on EGF: 13.07.2010
| External Relations
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Securing Energy and Building Regional Security: EU-Turkey Cooperation in the Black and Caspian Seas Basin (142 Kb)
Turkey’s importance to the EU should not be underestimated
Turkey’s unique geopolitical position, straddling both Europe and Asia (encompassing its proximity in the Middle East, Caucuses, Balkans, and Black & Caspian Sea regions specifically), has placed the country into a very advantageous position amongst all actors that are involved in any of these areas. Its longstanding membership in NATO and the Council of Europe, in addition to its historical military partnership with Israel, further underscores the fact that Turkey has long been, and continues to be, a partner of strategic importance to the West. Furthermore, with no end in sight to Europe’s reliance on imported Eurasian and Russian gas supplies, Turkey’s territory is the crossroads for the planned NABUCCO gas pipeline, which intends to decrease European reliance on Russian gas.
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 02.06.2010
| Energy
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The Reemergence of Russian Geopolitical Power in the Black and Caspian Seas Region: Implications for Turkey and the Wider Power Balances (254 Kb)
Energy and security: Russia’s new obsession with the wider Black Sea region Revived by the economic recovery it has witnessed in recent years, and not necessarily weakened by the global financial crisis, Russia is demonstrating itself to be an increasingly assertive (political and economic) force in the wider-Black and Caspian Seas (BCS) basin. Exerting influence in the BCS region is a crucial element in the Russian geopolitical strategy, given the region’s importance both as an energy producer as well as its vitality as a primary corridor for the transit of oil and gas to international markets.
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 26.05.2010
| Energy
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European Parliament Urges EU Engagement in Karabakh
Today, the European Parliament renewed its commitment to greater engagement by the European Union in the South Caucasus as it adopted a new resolution on EU policy in the region [1]. This is the first resolution dedicated to the South Caucasus countries since the launch, in 2009, of the EU’s landmark Eastern Partnership policy [2].
- AGBU Europe |
Published on EGF: 24.05.2010
| Energy
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