Launch of the TANAP Pipeline: Implications for the South Caucasus By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
On June 12, the official launch ceremony of the TANAP pipeline was held in Turkey. TANAP is the key component of the Southern Gas Corridor, which should bring Azerbaijani gas to Europe, circumventing Russia. At the initial stage, annually 6 billion cubic meters of gas will be supplied to Turkey and another 10 billion through South Eastern Europe mainly to Italy. In later stages, the volume may be increased due to additional gas from the Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field, or potentially involving other gas sources such as Iraq and Turkmenistan. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 27.06.2018
| Energy
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The Black Sea-Caspian Region in Post-Conflict Energy Security Cooperation Scenarios By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert
This opinion piece applies post-conflict scenario planning to the future of the regional energy security cooperation in the Black Sea-Caspian basin and describes collaborative steps that could be taken by all relevant players to think more deeply about promoting the integration of energy markets in this part of the world.
Notwithstanding the most acute unpredictability of the new societies in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia in the 1990s, the young states simultaneously faced the need for intense capital investments in their energy sectors that could drive economic growth. Since then, both the Black Sea and the Caspian basin alike have become crossroads for increased commerce and economic development as the old Silk Road is revived. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 20.09.2017
| Energy
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Armenia is pushing hard to overcome isolation By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Long term economic development may play a key role in defining the balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Last month has seen Armenia engaging in high level contacts with Iran and Turkmenistan. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan participated in Iranian President Rouhani's inauguration. During a bilateral meeting between the two presidents perspectives for developing Armenian - Iranian relations were discussed including the possibility to expand the cooperation in the energy sphere. READ MORE
Changing the Geopolitical Paradigm in the Middle East An expert on Middle Eastern geopolitics explains why Russia has taken over the initiative in Syria and what the West is left with.
Russia’s military intervention in Syria has changed the rules of the game and threatens the balance of power in the region, as the strategic importance of the Middle East appears to decline in significance for the United States. READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 01.12.2015
| Energy
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Despite hopes, Substantial Obstacles Remain for Near-Term Iraqi Gas Exports (342 Kb)
George Vlad Niculescu
Following closely after the ground-breaking Turkey-Russia gas export/pipeline MoU announced last week, another agreement was publicized between the Iraqi government and the KRG that could send additional KRG gas to Turkey. Some argue that, if the KRG ramps up and exports significant volumes, it could pose problems for Putin’s new plan. EGF Affiliated Expert Ahmed Mousa Jiyad explains why this is unlikely. READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 09.12.2014
| Energy
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Romania’s Energy Strategy Options: Current Trends in Eastern Europe’s Natural Gas Markets (156 Kb)
by Dr. Radu Dudau, director of the Energy Policy Group Bucharest (EGF Information Partner)
Romania’s most important foreign energy policy project, the Nabucco gas pipeline, collapsed in June 2013 as the rivaling TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) won the bidding for transporting Azerbaijani gas to the EU. Hence, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) will link the Caspian Basin to Southern Italy via Turkey, Greece, Albania, and the Adriatic Sea.
Shah Deniz consortium’s choice was predominantly commercial, yet it came to the detriment of Eastern Europe’s strategic necessities. But, although left with no large scale international project, Romania keeps significant options to improve its energy security on the medium term. This paper reviews Romania’s prospective new sources –internal and external – of primary energy. READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 02.05.2014
| Energy
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BP Energy Outlook 2030
Within the framework of the IMEMO’s Oil and Gas Dialog Forum BP's chief economist Christof Rühl presented BP Energy Outlook 2030 to the audience of the Russian academics It was stressed that the outlook’s ‘base case’ reflects a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ assessment of the world’s likely path from today’s vantage point, drawing on expertise both within and outside the company. The outlook highlights the growing role of developing economies in global energy consumption, and the increasing share of non-fossil fuels in global energy supply. It emphasizes the central role markets and well-designed policy can play to meet the dual challenge of solving the energy needs of billions of people who aspire to better lifestyles, and doing so in a way that is sustainable and secure. It also notes the uncertainties attached to any long term projection. The discipline of building a numerical projection sharpens our thinking, but the precise numbers are less important than the underlying story of the challenges we all face and the choices we make in producing and consuming energy. To read the report please click EGF or BP
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 27.02.2012
| Energy
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 (2 Mb)
Within the framework of the IMEMO’s Oil and Gas Dialog Forum BP's chief economist Christof Rühl presented BP Energy Outlook 2030 to the audience of the Russian academics
It was stressed that the outlook’s ‘base case’ reflects a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ assessment of the world’s likely path from today’s vantage point, drawing on expertise both within and outside the company.
The outlook highlights the growing role of developing economies in global energy consumption, and the increasing share of non-fossil fuels in global energy supply. It emphasizes the central role markets and well-designed policy can play to meet the dual challenge of solving the energy needs of billions of people who aspire to better lifestyles, and doing so in a way that is sustainable and secure. It also notes the uncertainties attached to any long term projection. The discipline of building a numerical projection sharpens our thinking, but the precise numbers are less important than the underlying story of the challenges we all face and the choices we make in producing and consuming energy.
To read the report please click EGF or BP
- BP |
Published on EGF: 08.02.2012
| Energy
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EGF Gazprom Monitor (125 Kb)
Issue 10: November-December 2011
A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
Key points:
- Gazprom hasn’t given up on its attempts to break into South-East Asian gas markets. Its proposal for a
potential trans-Korean pipeline has found support in both North and South Korea. However, North Korea’s
change in leadership casts a shadow of doubt over the situation
- Gazprom’s purchase of the remaining 50 percent share in Beltransgaz brought a sigh of relief to European
consumers, with transit disputes and Belarusian debts for Russian gas seemingly laid to rest. The purchase is
one of several measures designed to bring Russia and Belarus closer together, and demonstrate to Ukraine
the potential benefits of selling its gas transportation system to Gazprom
- Nord Stream was launched with great fanfare. The launch has a substantial impact on the current transit
situation, with Ukraine looking like the loser of the piece as its transit volumes are increasingly likely to fall
- Gazprom intensified negotiations with Kiev over the possible sale of Ukraine’s gas transit system. Given the
sale of Beltransgaz to Gazprom and the announcement that South Stream will go ahead as planned, there is
a fair chance that Kiev will give up shares in its gas transport system
- The Turkish national gas pipelines operator, Botaş has refused to renew its 26-year contract to purchase 6
billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian gas annually, which expired on the 31st of December 2011. Gazprom’s
subsequent attempts to circumvent the national supplier have failed: The Turkish Ministry of Energy has
refused applications by 26 companies for licences to import Russian gas
- PGNiG has filed an arbitration case against Gazprom for lower gas prices and greater spot-price element in
contracts. Even if the Polish company ultimately succeeds in its aim, the process could drag on for months
- Gazprom plans to pay record dividends, estimated to be 200bn Roubles. However, shareholders should not
expect such generosity from Gazprom next year: The size of Gazprom’s declared investment programme
precludes similar profits next year.
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 19.01.2012
| Energy
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EGF Gazprom Monitor (118 Kb)
Issue 9: October 2011
A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
Key points:
- In a somewhat surprising development for Gazprom, Turkish state-owned gas pipeline operator, Botaş, has
declined to extend its contract for 6 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year. The move is seen by some as
an attempt by Ankara to obtain gas price discounts.
- The Polish state-owned energy company, PGNiG, has joined its European counterparts in pressing for lower
gas prices from Gazprom. Warsaw wants to change the gas price formula and tie it to spot gas market prices.
- Another recent, unpleasant surprise for Gazprom was the launch of an investigation into its European
partners carried out by the European Commission (EC). Officially, the EC investigation concerns the potential
violation of antimonopoly legislation, although some commentators see the investigation as an attempt to
strengthen the position of European consumers in their negotiations with the Russian gas giant.
- Belarus has agreed terms with Gazprom for the sale of the remaining 50 percent stake in Beltransgaz. In
return, Belarus President, Alexander Lukashenko, is demanding guarantees of transit through the Belarusian
pipeline network and a reduction in gas import prices to the level of internal Russian prices.
- Ukraine President, Viktor Yanukovich’s attempt to destroy his political rival, Yulia Timoshenko, is playing into
Gazprom’s hands. As Brussels toughens its stance towards Kiev, Ukraine is forced to be more amenable in its
negotiations with Russia, especially those over the future of Ukraine’s Gas Transit System (GTS)
- Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s visit to China failed to produce a breakthrough in negotiations over the Altai
gas pipeline and potential Russian gas deliveries to China. The price of gas exports via the Altai pipeline
remains the main stumbling block, as Gazprom is currently seeking other ways of exporting gas to China,
namely via the Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline.
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 13.11.2011
| Energy
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