The Daily Brief
2018 Third-Quarter Forecast — It promises to be an especially fractious quarter as the United States continues to spar not only with adversaries but allies as well. The simmering trade dispute with China will continue, Russia will struggle to break its stalemate with the West, Europe has a litany of problems to address, and anything could happen on the Korean Peninsula.
Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter Forecast
The White House will bump up against the laws of the United States and the central tenets of the World Trade Organization as it launches a global trade offensive in the name of national security. U.S. production costs will rise in response, and countries will target America's politically sensitive sectors in retaliation.
Stratfor 2018 Annual Forecast
Reckoning With North Korea: Though the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula can't be ruled out, the United States will probably try to avoid a costly preventive strike against the North's nuclear weapons program that would plunge the global economy back into recession. Instead, Pyongyang's demonstration of a viable nuclear deterrent next year will spawn a new and more unstable era of containment.
Jerusalem: A Decision of Regional Consequence
Washington's decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel will give jihadist groups a rallying cry to galvanize supporters and recruit new members.
Stratfor 2017: Fourth-Quarter Forecast
Homing in on North Korea: An emerging nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula will rise to the top of the United States' agenda this quarter, reducing the priority of less pressing issues as Washington works furiously to avoid — and prepare for — the worst. Thoroughly distracted, the United States will have little time and few resources to spend on other foreign policy matters, including its nuclear deal with Iran. Though Washington will try to counter Tehran's regional power grabs where it can, it will not risk triggering another diplomatic meltdown by abandoning the agreement. The White House will similarly shelve the most aggressive moves in its protectionist trade agenda until next year.
Turkey Builds a Military-Industrial Complex to Match Its Ambitions
The Turkish government is determined to further develop the country's indigenous defense industry. An increasingly capable and mature defense industry will help Ankara enhance its self-sufficiency, stimulate its economy and develop tighter relationships with foreign partners.
Stratfor: 2017 Second-Quarter Forecast
Trade will be at the forefront of many leaders' minds this quarter as a new U.S. administration settles into the White House. Though U.S. President Donald Trump continues to be bogged down by congressional battles and allegations of inappropriate ties to Russia, his team will try to draw the public's attention back to its trade agenda. To that end, Washington will work to clarify its strategy for cracking down on currency manipulation abroad, tightening the enforcement of existing trade laws and preparing to renegotiate NAFTA. But the uncertainty surrounding the White House's intentions will linger, prompting the United States' biggest trade partners to look for new economic relationships elsewhere.
A Storm Is Brewing Over Europe
Storm clouds are once again gathering above the eurozone. In coming months, its continuity will be threatened by events in Europe and the United States. Germany, the largest political and economic player in Europe, will try to keep the bloc together. But the crisis could be too big for Berlin to handle, especially since some of the actors involved see Germany as a part of the problem rather than the solution.
The Eurozone: On the Edge of Crisis
The bailout of Banca Monte Dei Paschi di Siena, Italy's third-largest bank, was the first to take place after the eurozone instituted its "bail-in" rules. But those rules' apparent failure adds another layer of risk for the currency union. (GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP/Getty Images).
The Limits of Uzbekistan's Drift Toward Russia
Russia and Uzbekistan have begun to work more closely with each other on economic and security issues, a trend that will likely accelerate in the wake of the deadly subway bombing in St. Petersburg on April 3. But despite their greater cooperation, the government in Tashkent will not abandon its broader strategy of neutrality. Instead, it will continue to maintain strategic ties with China, the United States and other foreign powers.
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