The Daily BriefPublished on EGF: 17.01.2018 Forecast2018 Annual Forecast — North Korea's likely achievement of a viable nuclear deterrent next year will give rise to a new and more unstable era of containment. As the specter of war looms in the Asia-Pacific, China and Russia will band together while the United States cracks down even harder on Iran — as well as its own trade partners.
A PDF of the 2018 Annual Forecast can also be found here. Essential ReadingGoing Viral: The Geopolitics of the Flu — One hundred years after the Spanish influenza decimated populations around the world, emerging technologies are key to fighting the stubborn disease. Venezuela: Police Raid Suspected Militant Hideout — President Nicolas Maduro's government isn't taking any chances with the dissident movements cropping up in the country. Kosovo: Prominent Moderate Serb Politician Oliver Ivanovic Is Assassinated — This report from Stratfor Threat Lens highlights the importance of varying routines and maintaining situation awareness. Romania: Yet Another Prime Minister Steps Down — Romania has had three different prime ministers resign under its current government, making it difficult for the country to push forward with the reforms its western partners want. Myanmar: A Tentative Timeline for Rohingya Repatriation — The initial plan for the steady return of refugees is in place, but the crisis is far from over. Iraq: Officials Discuss Oil Export Deal With Kurdistan Regional Government — A recent meeting suggests that the Iraqi and Kurdish governments are inching closer to common ground, but several sticking points remain between them. Global PerspectivesMap: All of the World's Borders by Age — Nick Routley for Stratfor partner Visual Capitalist examines how over the centuries, the map of the world has undergone countless transformations as territorial jurisdictions changed hands through arrangements such as war and marriage. Stratfor GraphicThe need for Pyongyang and Seoul to frame even their bilateral dialogue in regional terms reflects Korea's long-standing reality as a nation trapped between larger powers. ForumsContribute to the conversation. Share your thoughts in our forum section to engage with our analysts, editors and fellow Stratfor Worldview subscribers. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is drafting plans to potentially ban domestic and foreign centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. PBOC Vice Governor Pan has spearheaded regulations on cryptocurrencies and is the head of the leading group on internet financial risks mediation. In the past, his efforts have led to the banning of initial coin offerings and local cryptocurrency exchanges in China, so this proposal could have legs. It’s worth noting that centralized exchanges (for example, Coinbase) do have a natural decentralized counterpart and that some within the cryptocurrency community are calling for a move toward decentralized exchanges. But the move would make regulating exchanges more difficult. While much of the developed world is working to regulate centralized exchanges, China is working to ban them. What will it mean for both the exchanges and for Chinese individuals and businesses? News You May Have MissedFor even more news, visit Stratfor's Situation Reports page.
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