The Daily BriefPublished on EGF: 09.02.2018 Special ProjectSuperforecasting the Future of Europe — The past year hasn't been kind to the European Union as independence referendums and Euroskepticism have threatened to break the bloc apart. But a joint project pairing Stratfor's qualitative analysis with Good Judgment's quantitative methodology offers a more optimistic take on Continental unity. Link Live Forums ChatA robust dialogue and fresh perspectives are critical sources of inspiration in forecasting. Stratfor and its partner, Good Judgment Inc., would like to extend an open invitation to readers to join us in discussing the future of Europe. Ask questions and talk about the ins and outs of superforecasting with a panel of analysts in our first-ever Live Forums Chat. The event begins at 11a.m. CT on Feb. 13. We hope to see you online! Link Essential ReadingThe Political Games at the 2018 Winter Olympics — The powers enmeshed in the Korean crisis may signal their intentions for the future with what they say or do as the competition unfolds. Link India Looks at the Maldives and Sees China — The island nation's political crisis reinforces New Delhi's fears about Beijing's growing Indian Ocean presence. Link Would Venezuela Invade Guyana? — An unconfirmed report suggests Caracas is considering the move. And though it could worsen Venezuela’s already dire situation, it could also offer opportunities for leverage. Link North Korea: Pyongyang Showcases Its Nuclear Resolve — The Winter Olympics will feature a warming between the two Koreas, but the North is still proudly displaying the products of its ballistic missile program. Link Global PerspectivesSecurity Tokens: Where Digital Assets Meet the Real World — Stratfor contributor Ashwini Anburajan says the emerging asset class offers all the convenience of cryptocurrency with the reassurance of tangible value — a combination that could change investment as we know it. Link When Money Doesn't Grow on Trees: The End of Easy Cash — Adam Bell from Stratfor partner the Australian Institute of International Affairs writes that the surging global economic growth underway signals an end to the era of quantitative easing. For financial markets around the world, that's an unsettling prospect. Link Stratfor GraphicA rapidly unfolding political crisis in the Maldives has created challenges and opportunities for India. ForumsContribute to the conversation. Share your thoughts in our forum section to engage with our analysts, editors and fellow Stratfor Worldview subscribers. Despite an announced agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union, European Commission lawyers have found it a difficult task to draft the legal text to govern the Irish border. The agreement between the two sides stipulated that there be no hard border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland, a member of the European Union. It was agreed that Northern Ireland would remain in regulatory alignment with Ireland and the European Union, but the British government has also confirmed that it plans to leave the EU customs union and made an earlier commitment to allow Northern Ireland to adhere to the same regulations as the rest of the United Kingdom. A legally binding document that includes all of these stipulations is, quite simply, impossible. However, it's unclear how a compromise could be reached. Theme of the Week: Coping With a Nuclear North KoreaNorth Korea is convinced that the only way to avoid foreign military action against it is to develop a viable nuclear deterrent — and it is now in the final stages of developing one. Sanctions and negotiations have failed to persuade Pyongyang to abandon this strategy, so world powers have only two options for coping with North Korea: militarily intervene before it acquires a deterrent or begin to shape defense strategies based on the assumption that it will inevitably acquire one. The fraught dance around the nuclear issue will be interrupted this week with the start of Olympic Games in South Korea. The United States has paused military drills for the games, so North Korea will likely extend its pause in testing as well, but it will continue working toward its goal in other ways — meaning the detente will be short-lived. Link News You May Have MissedFor even more news, visit Stratfor's Situation Reports page.
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