The Daily BriefPublished on EGF: 10.03.2018 Forecast2018 Second-Quarter Forecast — All eyes will be fixed on the White House this quarter as it launches a trade offensive whose collateral damage will span the globe. As economic and political pressure mounts against China, North Korea will use a temporary detente with the South to undermine the United States' containment strategy against it. Link Read our correct forecast calls for the year so far on our Stratfor Horizons blog. Link Essential ReadingLeft Turn Ahead: How a New President Could Shake Up Colombia — The path is smoother for Colombia's left to win this year's presidential elections — which could leave Washington and mining and energy companies in for a bumpy ride. Link Saudi Arabia: The Kingdom Addresses Concerns Around Its Anti-Corruption Campaign — Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's anti-corruption campaign has raised questions — and eyebrows — over his country's transparency, but a new royal decree is designed to fight those fears and encourage investment. Link Japan: What a Scandal's Resurgence Means for the Prime Minister — Despite efforts to put it to bed in 2017, resurgence of a scandal over the sale of government land could prove a rude awakening for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Link On SecurityRussia Sends a Chilling Message With Its Latest Chemical Attack — Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia is rewriting the rules for espionage and warning all traitors, past and future, that a terrifying death may await those who betray the motherland. Link
Global PerspectivesUAE and the Horn of Africa: A Tale of Two Ports — Taimur Khan from Stratfor partner the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington says the Gulf kingdom is just one of several outside powers using infrastructure projects to gain influence in the region. Link Tracing the Evolution of the Paralympic Games — Stratfor contributor Tolga Ozyurtcu explores how what started as a movement to rehabilitate wounded war veterans has grown into an international showcase for adaptive technologies and human potential. Link Stratfor GraphicThe Middle East has never been known for its stability, but Iran's fondness for meddling in its neighbors' affairs has made peace in the region all the more difficult to preserve. At least, that's the belief that will fix Washington's gaze squarely on the Islamic republic this quarter.
ForumsContribute to the conversation. Share your thoughts in our forum section to engage with our analysts, editors and fellow Stratfor Worldview subscribers. On March 11, China's National People's Congress passed a number of amendments to the country's constitution. Among other things, the amendments will abolish presidential term limits, effectively paving the way for Chinese President Xi Jinping to remain in office indefinitely. However, the move has also sparked criticism and speculation that Xi has put himself in a more precarious political position that could see him shoulder more blame for government failures or unpopular policies. Theme of the Week: Russia's Internal StruggleAfter a particularly contentious election season, Russia will hold its presidential election on Sunday. History shows that all too often the biggest threats to Russia come from within. Such is the case in the current era, a time when Moscow must manage a stand-off with the West, a weak economy, limited financial resources, social unrest, demographic shifts and political infighting in the highest echelons of power. As its leaders try to prevent Russia from collapsing altogether, the country will cease to be the nominal democracy it is now and become an outright autocracy. But that won’t happen without increasing dissent. Link |
|