The Daily Brief

Published on EGF: 02.12.2019

Essential Reading

In 2020, Russia's Biggest Enemy Will Be Its Own Economic Stagnation — Russia's economy has plateaued, and the Kremlin must find ways to spur growth or else face increasing internal instability and limited international influence. Link

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 28, 2019 — The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. Link

The Practical Limits of Labeling Mexican Cartels as Terrorist Organizations — The harsh reality is that economics dictate that the flow of contraband across the U.S.-Mexico border will never end as long as there is a huge market in the United States. Link

On Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Immigration — The U.S.-Mexican border is in some fundamental ways arbitrary. The line of demarcation defines political and military relationships, but does not define economic or cultural relationships. The borderlands — and they run hundreds of miles deep into the United States at some points — have extremely close cultural and economic links with Mexico. Where there are economic links, there always are movements of population. It is inherent. Link

The persistence of cross-border relations is inevitable in borderlands that have been politically and militarily subjugated, but in which the prior population has been neither annihilated nor expelled.

Global Perspectives

Venezuela's Bad Neighborhood — Dino Mora for Stratfor partner The Affiliate Network writes that the Maduro regime's efforts to meddle in the political affairs of its Latin American neighbors fits neatly into Moscow's objectives. Link

Tariffs, Sanctions and the Problem of Trade-Based Money Laundering — Stratfor contributor Clay R. Fuller notes that states, businesses and individuals, eager to avoid duties and political frictions and penalties, are increasingly using commercial transactions to disguise illicit money transfers. Link

Podcasts

Shatter the Nations: ISIS and the War for the Caliphate — In this episode, Stratfor's Fred Burton sits down with journalist Mike Giglio, who tells the story of the rise of ISIS' caliphate and the coalition that worked to disassemble it in his new book Shatter the Nations: ISIS and the War for the Caliphate. Link

Stratfor Graphic

Without a formal end to the trade dispute, boycotts will continue to hurt sales of Japanese products in South Korea, though the overall economic impact to Japan will remain relatively small.

Forums

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News You May Have Missed

For even more news, visit Stratfor's Situation Reports page.

  • Iraq: Prime Minister Will Submit Resignation Link
  • Iraq: Anti-Government Protesters Set Iranian Consulate in Najaf Ablaze Link
  • Vietnam: Hanoi Releases New Defense White Paper Link
  • Israel, Palestinian Territories: IDF Strikes Hamas Targets After Rocket Fire From Gaza Strip Link
  • Iraq: Kurdistan Regional Government, Baghdad Reach Tentative Oil Deal Link
  • Russia, Ukraine: Swedish Court Rejects Gazprom Appeal, Possibly Complicating Energy Talks Link
  • South Korea: Bill Would Create Fund to Help Resolve Wartime Disputes With Japan Link
  • China, Russia: Countries Deploy Naval Assets for Joint Exercise off South African Coast Link
  • Turkey: Former Deputy Prime Minister Announces Formation of AKP Splinter Party by Late December Link
  • South Africa: IMF Urges Economic Reforms to Prevent Further Slowdown Link

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