Energy needs to give Bulgaria regional advantage
Valentin Stoyanov
EGF Affiliated Expert
Bulgaria fails to bring in the ‘big energy projects’
Over the past two decades Bulgaria has had no success with the so called ‘big energy projects’. The recent failure of NABUCCO was also a failure of the country’s efforts to diversify its gas supplies. The prospects for shale gas exploration and production look similarly grim after a moratorium was imposed by the Parliament in the beginning of 2012. READ MORE
A Russian-American-Syrian Triangle: The Syrian Chemical Weapons and American-Russian Relations
By Professor Andrei Kreutz,
EGF Adviser on Trans-Atlantic Security
During the last few weeks, the Syrian-American-Russian triangle directly or indirectly involving all Syria’s neighbors and a number of other nations, has become one of the major focuses of the political commentaries. The Russian initiative to help disarm Syria from its chemical weapons and Putin’s article which was published in the New York Times on September 11, 2013 apparently contributed decisively to prevent a new American military intervention in the Middle East, and brought Russia and its leader world-wide public attention, unknown since the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to the well-known American political analyst George Friedman, for the first time since the early 1990s, the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was able to sit with US State Secretary Kerry as an equal.
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On the CSTO priorities in ensuring stability in Central Asia in terms of the withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan By Major-General, Doctor of Political Science, Hayk Kotanjian
Guest contributor to EGF
On October 10 2013, within the framework of the Kyrgyz Republic’s chairmanship in the CSTO, an academic-practical conference “Afghanistan 2014: Prospects of the situation in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, challenges and threats to security in Central Asia in the context of the withdrawal of main contingents of the International security assistance force" took place in Bishkek. Experts from 27 countries, as well as from the CSTO, NATO, the UN, the OSCE, the EU, the SCO, the ICRC and other international organizations attended the conference. READ MORE
Russian Problem: Russia's Place in the World - an Attempt at Historical and Geopolitical Analysis
by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security
A Long Western Debate and its Political Consequences
Although Russia has been part of the European system since the Westphalian Treaty of 1648, and after its victory in the Northern War with Sweden and the Nystad Treaty in 1721 started to be seen as of he major powers on the continent, both its internal nature and its role in international politics have often suffered Western doubts and uncertainties. READ MORE
- September 19, 2013 12:42PM
Russia’s Soft Power: Does Moscow have any chance to achieve it?
by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security
The issue of soft power and its use in international relations, the concept of attracting and coopting rather than use of direct or indirect coercion as a means of persuasion, was introduced to present use by American scholar Joseph S Nye Jr. in 2002. However, both its concept and its practical use were in fact not new. Both modern and past history provides numerous examples of its previous applications. READ MORE
A Pragmatic Review of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution: Could Economic Incentives Help Break The Current Stalemate? In this research, we attempt to take a more pragmatic approach towards the topic of the conflict resolution process between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. We believe this process remains in a dangerous state of stalemate at the time of writing. More specifically, we ask whether economic incentives could help break the current deadlock. In order to do this, we posed a series of questions to a notable range of international experts familiar with the conflict, asking as to whether an approach towards conflict resolution where Armenia would return some land to Azerbaijan in return for the latter providing access to regional energy and infrastructure projects could contribute towards breaking the stalemate. The “return of land”, in the context of our research, refers primarily to the seven districts of Azerbaijan which Armenian forces took during the Karabakh war of the 1990s and which remains under Armenian control to this day. We do not assume the “return of land” to mean the return of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave itself. At the outset of our research, we were optimistic that the “economic incentives” approach could offer a fresh dimension to conflict resolution in relation to the current stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh. We felt that all parties could exercise a degree of “Caucasus pragmatism” if the right arguments were appropriately presented to governments and public, bearing in mind the widespread desire to see the region “take off” economically. Click here to read more.
Kofi Annan’s Syrian mission Mikhail Roshchin
Former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan appears to have made some diplomatic strides in efforts to mediate the violent uprising in Syria. And Annan’s mission also has gained Russian support, which is a crucial key to an international consensus on how best to resolve the Syrian conflict. We are joined on the line with Mikhail Roshchin, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. READ MORE
Syria denies responsibility for deaths of 2 Western journalists Mikhail Roshchin
Syria has officially said it is not responsible for the deaths of 2 Western journalists who snuck into Syria to cover the crisis going on there. Yesterday we’ve received news that American journalists Marie Colvin and French photo journalist Remi Ochlik were killed when the home they were staying in was shelled. We are joined now to discuss this with Mikhail Roshchin, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. READ MORE
EGF Middle East Briefing - Egypt’s New Political Landscape: between Democratization and Old Legacies Claudia Nocente
EGF Researcher, Global Security
Egypt’s Islamic state on the horizon
Egypt is once again in the headlines. The results of the first, allegedly, free elections after the ousting of Hosni Mubarak as the Egyptian president are causing widespread concern, especially in the West, about the country’s process towards democratization. Many fear that the legacy of the former political establishment will haunt the country for many years to come. Egyptians have been denied any aspect of a wealthy social and political life and are now concerned about the fruits of their courageous actions and the new seeds last year’s events have implanted. What will Egypt look like a year from now? Will it end up embracing a hardline Islamist direction in the administration of political power? READ MORE
Yuliya Tymoshenko's lawyers demand immediate resumption of trial
ISSUE #32
09/26/2011
The lawyers defending former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko
have submitted a request for an immediate resumption of the trial.
“Today, the defense is requesting an immediate resumption of the trial so the court
can consider a petition to change the preventive measure,” Tymoshenko's lawyer
Oleksandr Plakhotnyuk stated on 21 September 2011. First and foremost, this
relates to the former prime minister's state of health, he added. READ MORE
Ukrainian Parliament passes pension reform
ISSUE #25
07/11/2011
On 8 July 2011, the Supreme Council of Ukraine adopted the law on pension
reform, which was drawn up by the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers.
The law envisions that the retirement age for women will be gradually raised from 55
to 60 years, the work history requirement for a pension will be increased by 10 years
for both men and women and the maximum pension will be limited to 10 minimum
wages. READ MORE
Ukraine fails again to receive gas discount from Russia
ISSUE #21
06/13/2011
On 7 June 2011, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov visited Moscow.
During his visit, the Ukrainian prime minister and his Russian counterpart,
Vladimir Putin, participated in a meeting of the Committee on Economic
Cooperation of the Ukrainian-Russian Interstate Commission. READ MORE
EGF Turkey File March 2011
Key points:
• In the Ergenekon case, arrests by the government on vague charges reappear, this time targeting journalists and authors. Recently two journalists were detained based on secret evidence that security officials say cannot be revealed at this time.
• Ankara continues to practice ‘Strategic Depth’ foreign policy but has largely been left behind in the Western intervention in Libya. As Syria is rocked by protests and consequent crackdowns, Turkey is largely silent, preaching stability as the top priority for the region.
• Turkey rebuffs Russian demands on a South Stream guarantee while the EU’s head of Energy, Günther Oettinger, warns Russia against intimidating Central Asian suppliers of Nabucco. READ MORE
EGF Turkey File February 2011
Key positions:
• Former Turkish Prime Minister, Necmettin Erbakan, passed away Sunday 27 February. He was 84. Erbakan, the first Islamist prime minister of the Turkish Republic, was forced to resign after only a year into his reign by the military, in what is called the first ‘post-modern coup’.
• Under the guidance of current Prime Minister Erdogan, Turkey has stayed on the sidelines throughout much of the past weeks while protests raged throughout the Middle East. Ankara is finding its new position as a dominant regional actor as having less impact than previously thought, but has been forced to act pragmatically due to the proximity of its own citizens and financial interests in the affected nations.
• Prime Minister Erdogan recently spoke in Dusseldorf, Germany, telling Turks there that while they should learn the (German) language and participate in wider culture of their new homeland; assimilation would be an affront to their human rights. The prime minister also spoke positively about Turkey’s accession to the EU, surprising some for the positive manner in which the AKP leader addressed the issue after years of European rejection.
• The Nabucco gas pipeline still appears to be up in the air as none of the participating companies have yet signed any construction agreements, while a Russian delegation has put pressure on the Brussels-EU whilst addressing its own energy security concerns. READ MORE
EGF Turkey File January 2011
Key Points:
• The Nabucco pipeline received several pieces of good news in January, but there is little sign of any movement towards commencement of construction works. Further, Italy’s ENI has rejected any possible suggestions that Nabucco could merge with Russia’s South Stream.
• Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Erdogan, has responded to criticisms that new laws advocating the restrictions of alcohol reflect an infringement on personal freedoms of Turkish citizens.
• The widely discussed “conspiracy” of the Sledgehammer coup plot is once again in the lime light, as prosecutors allege plans by the plotters to bomb two Istanbul mosques.
• Following the release of 5 members of the banned (Turkish) Hizbullah organisation in January, a fiery security- political debate has erupted as to whether there is a link between the AKP government and the outlawed group.
• While Istanbul hosts talks between the P5 +1 and Iran over the latter’s nuclear ambitions, Turkey sits out the meeting. A settlement on Cyprus appears impossible after Turkey and the EU sit out January talks in Geneva, with some critics saying this is the end for Turkey’s own EU accession negotiations.
• A day after Saudi Arabia halted its efforts in support of the formation of a new government in Lebanon, the joint Turkish/Qatari mission followed suit, claiming that the disputing Lebanese factions indicated reservations with external proposals to help broker a deal. READ MORE
Former Minister of Economy Bohdan Danylyshun has been granted a political asylum in the Czech Republic
ISSUE #01
01/24/2011
On January 13-th, 2011, the Ministry of Foreign Affaires of the Czech republic has decided to grant political asylum to Bogdan Danylyshyn. As a reminder, the former Minister of Economy is accused of embezzlement in Ukraine. On October 2010, he was detained on the territory of the Czech Republic upon Interpol request. Later, Kiev demanded his extradition and the accused has asked for a political asylum in the Czech Republic.
READ MORE
The IMF is satisfied with Ukraine yet is bringing forward more demands to continue the cooperation 
ISSUE #19
11/19/2010
Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission in Ukraine Thanos Arvanitis said that Ukraine had fulfilled all main obligations within the framework of the cooperation program with the IMF. Prime-Minister of Ukraine Nikolay Azarov predicts that by the end of 2010 the Board of Directors of the IMF would decide on granting Ukraine the second tranche of the loan in the amount of 1.6 billion dollars. READ MORE
- December 15, 2010 09:09AM
EGF Turkey File
November 2010
Key positions:
• David Cameron’s forceful remarks over the summer on Turkey’s stagnant accession talks have hit a nerve in some circles in Brussels. Criticism of fellow German and French members of the EU by the prime minister on bias and playing to xenophobic political moods has addressed the elephant in the room over Turkey’s much debated membership application. Brussels is predicted to endorse the recent referendum results from Turkey as a positive step in its long standing bid to join the EU.
• A Turkish court struck down the headscarf ban in public universities recently, but no major social disturbances have been reported. The lack of social unrest over such a divisive issue seems to further demonstrate that Turkey is enshrining the values of a law based democratic society where sensitive political issues are settled in the courts and at the ballot box rather than in the streets. Meanwhile the Ergenekon trial (Turkey’s new national coup plot) has faded from national attention as the Istanbul prosecutor’s office has declined to pursue the case citing lack of verifiable evidence.
• The Turkish National Petroleum Corporation has recently won two major contracts in developing the two largest Iraqi gas fields, further increasing Turkey’s interests in its neighbour. This has not alleviated some concern in the business sector that warns a ballooning trade deficit over the past year has dire consequences for the long-term future of business growth.
READ MORE
- November 30, 2010 05:57AM
EGF Turkey File September 2010
John Van Pool
EGF Turkey Geopolitics Analyst
Key positions:
- British Prime Minster David Cameron’s recent speech to the Turkish Parliament, which gave strong support for Ankara’s EU membership bid, is likely to have caused more reaction from European national leaders had it been delivered in Brussels
- Last month’s agreement between Chevron and Turkish Petroleum to explore two deep-water wells in the Black Sea is a reflection of the Turkish government’s efforts to make the country self sufficient in oil and gas production by 2023
- Italian energy company ENI has attempted to reach a compromise for its role in the competing Nabucco and South Stream pipelines by reaching an agreement with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan in which compressed natural gas reserves will be transported by ship across the Caspian Sea, which will provide supplies to both pipelines without alienating either project’s backers.
- Turkey’s National Security Policy Document (also known as the ‘Secret Constitution’), which is due to be reviewed shortly, will identify energy security as the country’s most pressing strategic issue, and will remove Russia, amongst other neighbours, from the countries it would consider as potential enemies. READ MORE
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: The Tashkent Summit Generates More Questions than Answers
EGF Editorial
On June 11-12 2010 the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held their annual Summit in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, under the auspices of the (rotational) Uzbek presidency. The previous SCO Summit was held in 2009 in Yekaterinburg, Russia, where the agenda of the member states was dominated by the search for the right exit strategies out of the global economic-financial crisis, particularly those that would serve to minimise its nefarious consequences upon SCO members. In Tashkent, the agenda of SCO member country leaders was dominated by the following issues:
• Enhancement of regional stability and security
• Coordination of the intergovernmental struggle with international terrorism, extremism and separatism
• Contemporary problems relating to the above, including ongoing crisis in Afghanistan (a regional thorn for all of the SCO members) and the fallout of the political-security crisis in Kyrgyzstan
• Coordination of national and intergovernmental efforts to counter organised crime and narco-trafficking. READ MORE
EGF Turkey File
August 2010
John Van Pool
EGF Turkey Geopolitics Analyst
Key Positions:
• Terrorism-related acts of sabotage, linked to the outlawed Kurdish-separatist group, the PKK, took place on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline on 10 August, disrupting production
• The Moscow-backed South Stream gas pipeline has been losing support amongst influential stakeholders in the region (the Italian Energy company, ENI, has raised concerns that the project will not be commercially viable)
• Turkey appears to be slowly correcting its energy policy shortcomings of the past with Russia, and Ankara now seeks a more balanced energy partnership with Moscow
• Conciliatory gestures towards Turkey’s Kurds by the present Ankara government appear to have done little to ease tensions in the country’s south east, which is heavily populated by Kurdish minorities. READ MORE
Geopolitical Challenges 2010
At the end of December 1999, as the world prepared to usher in a new Millennium, in Europe and other parts of the planet, there was widespread concern that the so called “Millennium Bug” would strike, causing unforeseen disruption and havoc. Ten years on, in December of last year, for many in Europe, the Millennium Bug was just a shade in the memory as a far more ominous concern was pressing home – the prospect of another gas crisis. Although the fact that the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute of January 2009 – and its knock-on effect of leaving much of Europe without natural gas in the peak of winter – did not repeat itself during the record cold European temperatures of January this year, the very fact that European attention has become so focused on this theme demonstrates how geopolitical developments in the European hinterlands have come to impact the day-to-day livelihood of all Europeans.
Leading experts have shared their views on how such geopolitical challenges are likely to pan out during 2010 and beyond in an online session. Click here to go into the discussions or here to view forum summary
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