By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The 25 September referendum in the Kurdish region may not lead to Kurdish independence any time soon, but neighbouring countries are apprehensive.
On September 25, 2017 the long-anticipated independence referendum took place in the region administered by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and other mainly Kurdish populated disputed areas of Iraq. Those areas are outside of KRG administered boundaries defined by the Iraqi constitution, but currently are under control of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters. According to preliminary official results voting turnout was 72 percent and approximately 93 percent of participants voted for independence. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

China's growing involvement in the South Caucasus may provide Armenia a much needed flexibility in its foreign policy.
On August 9, 2017 work started on the construction of China's new Embassy building in Yerevan. Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, Yerevan's Mayor Taron Markarian, and visiting Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Li Huilai participated in the ground-breaking ceremony of the 40,000-square-meter embassy compound that should be completed by the end of 2019. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Russia effectively uses the complicated geopolitical situation of Armenia to strengthen its grip on Yerevan, and uses its alliance with Armenia as an efficient tool to further its position in the South Caucasus.
Alliance with Russia is the cornerstone of Armenian foreign and security policy. Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Russia-led military block comprising six former Soviet republics. A Russian military base is deployed in Armenia, and will be there at least until 2044. Armenia has a joint air defense system with Russia, and in 2016 the two countries formed a joint military force. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Chances that Armenia will change its mind again about its relations with the EU are low, but this can still happen if Russia's relations with the west deteriorate further.
On March 21, 2017, Armenia and the EU initialed a new Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. This achievement was perceived as a critical step forward in fostering bilateral relations following a period of bitter disappointment in both Brussels and among the pro-European Armenians after the abrupt decision by Armenia, in September 2013, to withdraw from its negotiated Association Agreement with the EU, while choosing to join instead the Russia led Eurasian Economic Union - EAEU. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Trump's hard line approach towards Iran may derail ambitious plans to develop North-South trade and transport corridors in the South Caucasus.
On May 20, 2017, US President Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on his first stop of his week-long international trip. The new US President chose the Saudi visit as a focal point for presenting key pillars of his Middle East policy. Delivering a speech to the Arab - Islamic - American Summit, President Trump stressed the significance of the fight against terrorism and the important role regional states have to play in that struggle. Another key point of his speech was tough criticism directed against Iran. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

On 14-15 May 2017, 29 world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan, gathered in Beijing for the international forum of the "Belt and Road" initiative. The Forum was the biggest event since the launch of the 'One belt one Road' initiative put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. China invited countries and regions to jointly build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road with at least five routes of economic cooperation. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Russia and Iran for the moment have shared interest in containing western and Turkish influence in the South Caucasus. In the longer term, however, their relationship in the region is likely to become more competitive than cooperative. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

On March 21, 2017 Armenia and the EU initialed a new bilateral Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. This is an important milestone in bilateral relations, especially taking into account Armenia's last minute withdrawal in 2013 from initialing its Association Agreement negotiated within the framework of the EU Eastern Partnership program. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The perspectives of the US – Russia relations under the Trump Administration is one of the key foreign policy issues hotly debated in political and expert circles both in the US, Russia and elsewhere. The steep deterioration of bilateral relations since the start of the third Presidential term of Vladimir Putin brought back into the scene almost forgotten terminology of “Cold War”, “containment”, “great power rivalry”. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

EGF is excited to announce the launch of a new monthly information product, the Geopolitical Trends. Written by our long-time Head of Research, George Vlad Niculescu, it aims to fill a gap I would hope to see the year 2017 becoming a watershed in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict resolution. To that end, one essential requirement is for the conflicting parties to identify a political compromise that would underpin the conclusion of a peace agreement on NK. READ MORE

Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor

The outcome of Turkey’s recent parliamentary elections may partly reduce tensions in relations with Armenia, stopping the mounting hostile rhetoric of recent months. A normalization of bilateral relations should not be expected at this stage, but the trend of increasing cooperation in the humanitarian area, and in culture, tourism, and the media in recent years will likely continue. At the same time, some policies may need READ MORE

This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.”

Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor

After the recent clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, Russia’s leadership attempts to act more decisively in order to compromise the OSCE Minsk Group mediation efforts and to compel Armenia and Azerbaijan to accept Russia’s special role in the region. Russia’s proximity and strong influence over political elites and societies gives it an advantage over other Minsk Group co-chairs – the U.S. and France. However, the lack of security guarantees and economic perspectives may induce Armenia to start reviewing its attitudes concerning relations with different international actors and regional integration frameworks. READ MORE

This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.”

10^th Workshop of the PfP Consortium’s “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus” Study Group (RSSC SG)

On 6-8 November, 2014, the PfPC and the Austrian National Defense Academy jointly organized the 10^th Workshop of the RSSC SG at “Schloss Rothschild” in Reichenau (Austria). This workshop offered a platform for constructive dialogue among government and academic experts on the prospective roles of the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in breaking the current deadlocks in the resolution of the protracted conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh. During this workshop, a panel moderated by George Niculescu, the Head of Research of EGF, examined the background and the potential implications from the perspectives of South Caucasus (SC) states of having to make undesirable choices between the EU and the EEU. The panelists’ presentations and the ensuing discussion highlighted that, against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, maintaining freedom of choice on the ways and levels of engagement with both the EU and the EEU is a critical interest for each SC state, and a prerequisite for effective conflict resolution. In this context, Mr Niculescu thought that “the EU might work towards developing options for harmonizing the European and Eurasian integration normative systems. One of the options to be explored might involve sustaining post-conflict regional economic cooperation as a way to circumvent the dilemma of the states caught in-between competing European and Eurasian integration processes.” READ MORE. Please see the relevant post on Facebook here. 

By Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor

Armenia’s Russia-imposed self-isolation from the democratic international community continues and threatens to have economic and social consequences for the country. Russia is increasing its pressure in the South Caucasus, raising the specter of regional destabilization. While Russia already controls the most important sectors of Armenia’s economy, it seems set to reinforce its interests in the country so as to ensure that a fully dependent, loyal Armenia can constitute a tool for the projection of Russia’s political and military influence in the region. Russia’s overt attempt to fulfill its expansionist ambitions endangers the sovereignty of its neighbors, as well as regional stability and energy security. READ MORE

* This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.”

A highly successful roundtable discussion on Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context took place on the 27th of March, 2014, at the European Parliament.  The event was organized by the European Geopolitical Forum and international NGO partners, and was attended by more than 40 experts from the South Caucasus region and Brussels-based think tanks and international organizations who engaged in discussion in a constructive, informal ‘atmosphere of exchange’. The roundtable focused constructive energies on discussing a common future in an economically integrated South Caucasus, as a way to build mutual trust aimed at helping to overcome the current stalemate within the political and security negotiations.

As part of its work, EGF recently published a study entitled “A Pragmatic Review of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution: Could Economic Incentives Help Break the Deadlock?”.  While this research was well received by stakeholders monitoring developments on Nagorno-Karabakh, the study concluded that economic incentives, on their own, could not substitute for a political settlement to the conflict itself.   We were subsequently invited by Armenian, Azerbaijani and international stakeholders to expand on the above-mentioned research. Consequently, in 2014, EGF has deepened its existing research on ‘economic incentives as peace building tools in the unresolved conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh’, and has planned to publish a new study towards the end of the year.  This research will include extensive outreach activity consisting of consultation rounds with stakeholders and presentation of the research findings.

The roundtable discussion on the 27th of March was the first outreach event, and it comprised three main interactive discussion sessions. Each session was initiated by a few ‘discussion openers’, and followed by fully interactive dialogue under the Chatham House Rule.  Participants agreed that this roundtable should not be a one-of event, but it should lead to further dialogue on economic issues among experts and businesses, while opening a new section of Track 2 efforts for conflict resolution.  For the programme, pictures of the event, and biographies of speakers and participants from the region, please click here.  A more detailed follow-up report is forthcoming.

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

The announcement at the beginning of September 2013, in Moscow, by President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia's decision to join the Russia-led Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) apparently took many by surprise. Firstly, because in July 2013 Armenia concluded a lengthy four years negotiation on essential agreements, meant to upgrade its ties with the European Union (EU), which would be incompatible with joining the ECU. Secondly, because until recently (i.e. the run-up to the Vilnius Eastern Partnership summit to be held this fall) enlargement didn't seem a top priority for the ECU, the focus being more on making the customs union mechanisms effectively work for the existing membership. READ MORE

by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security

A Long Western Debate and its Political Consequences
Although Russia has been part of the European system since the Westphalian Treaty of 1648, and after its victory in the Northern War with Sweden and the Nystad Treaty in 1721 started to be seen as of he major powers on the continent, both its internal nature and its role in international politics have often suffered Western doubts and uncertainties. READ MORE

By Claudia Nocente,
Research Associate Global Security
February 2013

Key points:

• Egypt’s new administration between international praise and domestic unrest
• Morsi assumes pharaonic powers in an attempt to rid Egypt of Mubarak judges
• The felool take another shot in Egyptian politics
• The generals remain silent
• The Egyptian economy sinks. READ MORE

By Anna Ohanyan,
EGF Affiliated Expert on South Caucasus region building

There is much enthusiasm among researchers and policymakers alike concerning the pacifying effects of trade and broader interdependence among states. The European Union is an often cited example of greater regional integration as a way to enhance peace and security among neighboring states. This comparative regional study draws from the cases of the Balkans and South Caucasus in order (1) to offer a descriptive account of patterns and processes of regionalism in politically divided conflict areas, and (2) to examine the extent to which such regional engagement can positively affect ongoing conflict management efforts in a given conflict region. The study advocates promoting regional structures as a new and potentially effective approach to peace-building and security enhancement, toward managing the many 'frozen conflicts' both in the Balkans as well as in the South Caucasus. READ MORE

In this research, we attempt to take a more pragmatic approach towards the topic of the conflict resolution process between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. We believe this process remains in a dangerous state of stalemate at the time of writing. More specifically, we ask whether economic incentives could help break the current deadlock. In order to do this, we posed a series of questions to a notable range of international experts familiar with the conflict, asking as to whether an approach towards conflict resolution where Armenia would return some land to Azerbaijan in return for the latter providing access to regional energy and infrastructure projects could contribute towards breaking the stalemate. The “return of land”, in the context of our research, refers primarily to the seven districts of Azerbaijan which Armenian forces took during the Karabakh war of the 1990s and which remains under Armenian control to this day. We do not assume the “return of land” to mean the return of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave itself. At the outset of our research, we were optimistic that the “economic incentives” approach could offer a fresh dimension to conflict resolution in relation to the current stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh. We felt that all parties could exercise a degree of “Caucasus pragmatism” if the right arguments were appropriately presented to governments and public, bearing in mind the widespread desire to see the region “take off” economically. Click here to read more.

Dr. Andrej Kreutz
EGF adviser on trans-Atlantic security

When discussing the place in the international system and the foreign policy of any major country, one needs to take into account its historical background and transformations of its image in the eyes of the world. Because of the special and rather unusual features of both Russia’s geopolitics and history, the need to do that seems even more necessary. Click here to read more.

Debates about the geopolitical, geo-economic and strategic significance of the wider-Black Sea (WBS) region have become fashionable amongst Western policy makers and the international scholarly community since the end of the Cold War. While the Black Sea represented a “front line” in the stand-off between rival superpower blocks during an age which now seems to have slipped into the bygone days of our youth, the major geopolitical realignments which have taken place in Eurasia during the last two decades have evidently led to our “re-discovery” of one of the world’s most historically significant geostrategic playing fields. To read more click here.

Djallil Lounnas,
EGF Affiliated Expert with focus on Insurgency and Trans-national radicalism in North Africa and Sahel-Sahara

This article analyses, the complex relationship between Tehran, Beijing and Washington on the Iranian nuclear issue. Indeed, China’ policy towards Iran has often been described an ambiguous, in supporting Washington, on the one hand, while protecting Tehran, on the other hand. In this article, we argue that, in fact, Beijing policy vis-a-vis Tehran depends on the state of its relationships with Washington. Indeed, a closer analysis shows that China is using Iran as a bargaining chip with the United States on, among others, two key security issues, i.e., Taiwan and the oil supply. e guarantee of a secured oil supply from the Middle-East in addition to a comprehensive policy of the US with regard to Chinese security interests in Taiwan as well as the use of smart sanctions against Tehran, which would thus take into account, to a certain extent, Beijing economic interests in Iran, are, indeed, the guarantee of Beijing’ support to the US policy towards Iran. Click here to read more.

Mehmet Öğütçü,
EGF Expert The discovery of large gas reserves off the coasts of Israel and Cyprus posed a number of dilemmas for Turkey. Its response reflected both resource rivalry and underlying political conflicts. Turkey and its neighbors need to avoid harsh rhetoric and brinkmanship. Instead, pending solutions of bilateral differences, they should consider interim agreements to reduce risk and allow exploration and production to go ahead in a more predictable environment. To read more click here.

Mehmet Öğütçü,
EGF Expert The discovery of large gas reserves off the coasts of Israel and Cyprus posed a number of dilemmas for Turkey. Its response reflected both resource rivalry and underlying political conflicts. Turkey and its neighbors need to avoid harsh rhetoric and brinkmanship. Instead, pending solutions of bilateral differences, they should consider interim agreements to reduce risk and allow exploration and production to go ahead in a more predictable environment. To read more click here.