By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

US President Donald J. Trump recent decision to withdraw American forces from Syria caught everyone by surprise: the Washington establishment, foreign policy pundits and everyone else who follow the Middle East Geopolitics. Given the top priority which President Trump has attached to the containment of Iran and curbing its activities in the Middle East, many believed that US presence in Syria should have been either expanded or at least stayed the same. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a surprise official visit to Azerbaijan, on September 27. The formal reason for his arrival was to hold talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as well as to jointly attend the Ninth Interregional Russia-Azerbaijan Forum. Local mass media in both Azerbaijan and Russia described Putin’s visit as a next significant step in improving the strategic partnership between the two countries. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The current phase of the international relations can be best characterized by one word – transition. The Post-cold war order is rapidly disappearing creating strategic ambiguity for all actors. The U.S. hegemony is over or close to over despite the fact that militarily Washington will be far from the reach for several decades to come. However, growing national debt, looming crisis in social security and Medicare systems, uncontrolled migration, growing populism, and partisan fighting does not bode well for the future U.S. dominance. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

President Trump’s decision to pull out from the Iranian nuclear deal has significantly increased tensions in and around Iran. The return of “regime change” policy will have profound implications on Iran and the Middle East. The Iranian economy is in steep decline with the sharp devaluation of the Iranian Rial and large-scale protest rallies in different regions. The rising prices of consumer products, shortages of water and problems related with mismanagement are fuelling the protests. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The April – May 2018 “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia caught many by surprise. A few, if any, domestic or foreign experts anticipated such a quick removal from power of the long-term leader Serzh Sargsyan and the Republican Party. Many questions regarding the factors which facilitated the revolution remained unanswered. However, protest leader Nikol Pashinyan has been elected Prime Minister on May 8, and he will hold that position at least until the snap Parliamentary elections, either in November 2018 or in spring 2019. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenian-Georgian relations are friendly, regardless of some tensions under the surface. During his visit to Georgia, prime-minister Nikol Pashinyan should focus on pragmatic issues related to transport corridors.
Georgia plays a key role in Armenian foreign policy. Given the absence of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey Georgia is one of only two gateways for Armenia to connect with the world. Approximately 70 percent of Armenian foreign trade passes through Georgia. The country is the only channel for Armenian business to reach both Russia - a critical market for Armenian exports, and Europe - another key spot for Armenian business especially after 2017 November signature of Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU. READ MORE

By Jack Sharples, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas

With European gas import demand having risen substantially since 2014, Gazprom has dramatically increased its sales on the European market. In Q1 2018, Gazprom reported record daily gas exports to Europe in late February and early March. This Comment addresses the question of how those volumes were delivered to the market, and the extent to which the infrastructure for delivery of those volumes was used, highlighting that, in times of peak European gas import demand, full utilisation of the Nord Stream and Yamal-Europe pipelines left Ukraine as the only transit route with spare capacity. READ MORE

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

On 17 April 2018, Armenia’s National Assembly overwhelmingly voted to install Serzh Sargsyan -former president of the country- as prime minister. They unequivocally ignored the “voice of the street” calling for a change of face at the helm of this rather small, but ambitious post-Soviet state. This vote was supposed to conclude a power capture scheme started back in 2015.[…] Under pressure from independent civil society, then president Sargsyan had promised not to turn up as candidate for the prime-ministerial post. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Russia - Turkish relations are going through tremendous transformations. Just two and half years ago, Turkey was a target of harsh Russian criticism, with Moscow accusing Ankara of supporting the Islamic State, assisting various other terrorist groups deployed in Syria, and oil smuggling. However, since summer 2016, bilateral relations have improved significantly. Syria is a stark example of that thaw, seeing Russia tacitly supporting the Turkish incursion into Northern Syria in summer 2016 as well as turning a blind eye to the Turkish offensive in Afrin. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The convergence in the timing of key political processes in Armenia and Azerbaijan has heightened interest in Armenia regarding Azerbaijan's domestic developments.
The Azerbaijani President decision to move Presidential elections from October to April 2018 caught many in Armenia by surprise. The expert community put forward several clues on potential reasons for such a decision. The most discussed option was the possible deterioration of the economic situation in Azerbaijan in the second half of the year, which theoretically may complicate the re-election of Aliyev. READ MORE

by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Over the last few years, the confrontation between Russia and the West has made the headlines of plenty of academic and media analysis. Not surprisingly, the countries in-between located at the epi-center of this confrontation have been struggling to re-balance their positions against Washington, Brussels, and Moscow. What scenarios would most accurately outline the future of this confrontation in the geopolitical area between the Baltic Sea and the Wider Black Sea? READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since gaining independence in 1991 Armenia has faced tough challenges in building relations with two of its four neighbors – Azerbaijan and Turkey. Relations with Azerbaijan were mainly influenced by Karabakh conflict. Armenia was supporting Nagorno Karabakh Armenians to defend themselves against Azerbaijani aggression. The end of hostilities in 1994 and the signature of a ceasefire agreement did not bring up peace, and negotiations are still underway, for the last 23 years, to find a mutually accepted settlement. READ MORE

By Stepan Grigoryan, Head, Ana­lyt­i­cal Centre for Glob­al­i­sa­tion and Regional Coop­er­a­tion, Armenia

The statement from the President of Armenia in September 2013 sounded like a bolt from the blue. He would not sign the Asso­ci­a­tion Agreement with the European Union at the planned November Eastern Part­ner­ship Summit in Vilnius, he said. Instead, Armenia would be joining the Russian led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This signified Armenia's departure from a multi-vector foreign policy. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
As the US and Russia compete and maneuver for advantage in the arena of international politics, those nations connected to each are often affected by their shifting relations. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the dynamics of US–Russia relations and their implications for the South Caucasus. Since late 2011, US–Russia relations have deteriorated sharply and entered an acute crisis phase in spring 2014. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Expert-advisor, Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Azerbaijan Republic

Baku hosted the first joint gathering of the heads of the railway administrations of Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine and Poland, on June 19. The meeting was dedicated to the newly-launched “South-West Transport Corridor,” which links into the broader Trans-Caspian International Route project launched in 2016. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Chances that Armenia will change its mind again about its relations with the EU are low, but this can still happen if Russia's relations with the west deteriorate further.
On March 21, 2017, Armenia and the EU initialed a new Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. This achievement was perceived as a critical step forward in fostering bilateral relations following a period of bitter disappointment in both Brussels and among the pro-European Armenians after the abrupt decision by Armenia, in September 2013, to withdraw from its negotiated Association Agreement with the EU, while choosing to join instead the Russia led Eurasian Economic Union - EAEU. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Russia and Iran for the moment have shared interest in containing western and Turkish influence in the South Caucasus. In the longer term, however, their relationship in the region is likely to become more competitive than cooperative. READ MORE

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said that Turkey is heading to restore relations with Damascus. "We will expand our circle of friends. We have already begun to do so. We normalized our relations with Israel and Russia, and now, I am sure, we will do the same with Syria. We need it to be done", - said Yildirim, speaking on Turkish television. READ MORE

Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor

The outcome of Turkey’s recent parliamentary elections may partly reduce tensions in relations with Armenia, stopping the mounting hostile rhetoric of recent months. A normalization of bilateral relations should not be expected at this stage, but the trend of increasing cooperation in the humanitarian area, and in culture, tourism, and the media in recent years will likely continue. At the same time, some policies may need READ MORE

This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

EGF is excited to announce the launch of a new monthly information product, the Geopolitical Trends. Written by our long-time Head of Research, George Vlad Niculescu, it aims to fill a gap I would hope to see the year 2017 becoming a watershed in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict resolution. To that end, one essential requirement is for the conflicting parties to identify a political compromise that would underpin the conclusion of a peace agreement on NK. READ MORE

Elkhan Nuriyev,
EGF Affiliated Expert

The mounting tension over Ukraine has introduced numerous dangers to the security situation in the South Caucasus. These negative ramifications are further exacerbated by the fact that Russia holds the key to resolving conflicts in the post-Soviet realm, especially in the absence of greater Western assertiveness. But Moscow and Brussels are caught up in geopolitical competition over the region. READ MORE

Vasilije Boskovic,
EGF Guest Contributor

Montenegro is the only former Yugoslav republic where there was no change of government since 1989. The same political party, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), has ruled for 25 years consecutively. The party is led by Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, who was also president of the Republic of Montenegro from 1998 to 2002. What are the reasons the same political elite can hold onto power for more than two decades? READ MORE
Click here to read also "Protest virus appears contagious in Bosnia".

A highly successful roundtable discussion on Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context took place on the 27th of March, 2014, at the European Parliament.  The event was organized by the European Geopolitical Forum and international NGO partners, and was attended by more than 40 experts from the South Caucasus region and Brussels-based think tanks and international organizations who engaged in discussion in a constructive, informal ‘atmosphere of exchange’. The roundtable focused constructive energies on discussing a common future in an economically integrated South Caucasus, as a way to build mutual trust aimed at helping to overcome the current stalemate within the political and security negotiations.

As part of its work, EGF recently published a study entitled “A Pragmatic Review of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution: Could Economic Incentives Help Break the Deadlock?”.  While this research was well received by stakeholders monitoring developments on Nagorno-Karabakh, the study concluded that economic incentives, on their own, could not substitute for a political settlement to the conflict itself.   We were subsequently invited by Armenian, Azerbaijani and international stakeholders to expand on the above-mentioned research. Consequently, in 2014, EGF has deepened its existing research on ‘economic incentives as peace building tools in the unresolved conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh’, and has planned to publish a new study towards the end of the year.  This research will include extensive outreach activity consisting of consultation rounds with stakeholders and presentation of the research findings.

The roundtable discussion on the 27th of March was the first outreach event, and it comprised three main interactive discussion sessions. Each session was initiated by a few ‘discussion openers’, and followed by fully interactive dialogue under the Chatham House Rule.  Participants agreed that this roundtable should not be a one-of event, but it should lead to further dialogue on economic issues among experts and businesses, while opening a new section of Track 2 efforts for conflict resolution.  For the programme, pictures of the event, and biographies of speakers and participants from the region, please click here.  A more detailed follow-up report is forthcoming.

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

The Eastern Partnership Summit, held on 28-29 November 2013 in Vilnius, was supposed to highlight the progress achieved over the last four years by the EU on political association and economic integration with its eastern neighbours (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine). Although it resulted in initialling the Association Agreements of Georgia and Moldova, and in signing a few minor agreements with other eastern partners, the summit was hijacked by the growing geopolitical competition between the EU and Russia. The primary victims of this competition have been Armenia and Ukraine, who, under strong pressure from Russia, put off their plans to sign Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements with the EU. Other eastern partners have also felt the cold wind blowing across Europe within their economic, energy or security relations with Russia. READ MORE

Valentin Stoyanov
EGF Affiliated Expert

Bulgaria fails to bring in the ‘big energy projects’
Over the past two decades Bulgaria has had no success with the so called ‘big energy projects’. The recent failure of NABUCCO was also a failure of the country’s efforts to diversify its gas supplies. The prospects for shale gas exploration and production look similarly grim after a moratorium was imposed by the Parliament in the beginning of 2012. READ MORE