By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher

This article explores Azerbaijan’s evolving and increasingly more assertive foreign policy doctrine, which began to take shape following its victory over Armenia in the 2020 Second Karabakh War and was further solidified after its 2023 blitzkrieg operation, which dismantled institutionalized separatism within its territory. Conceptualized through the framework of strategic autonomy, this new doctrine is firmly anchored in realist and neorealist schools of thought, emphasizing pragmatic, interest-driven relationships with major regional and global powers while avoiding geopolitical entanglements. The paper argues that Azerbaijan’s quest for strategic autonomy is both a response to external pressures and a means to assert agency within the broader Eurasian security landscape. It also describes Azerbaijan as a “geopolitical interconnector”, capable of punching above its weight in contributing to international security, owing to its strategic location and diplomatic outreach across opposing blocs. The paper enriches scholarly discussions on strategic autonomy with a practical case study, offering a novel analytical framework to understand Azerbaijan’s foreign policy and its potential impact on regional and global geopolitics. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies


Currently, the situation is intriguing. Both sides claim substantial progress in peace talks. At the December 5 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Ministerial Council, Armenia’s foreign minister announced that the preamble to the peace agreement text and 15 out of its 17 articles had been finalized. The Armenian prime minister later stated that 90% of the text was agreed. However, according to the Azerbaijani state-affiliated think tank AIR Center, at least three contentious issues remain unresolved: the presence of the European Union (EU) mission in Armenia, constitutional and legal changes in Armenia, and the withdrawal of Armenia’s legal cases against Azerbaijan in international courts. Baku has also proposed two other preconditions to any peace agreement. These include dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group and establishing a “Zangezur corridor” free of Armenian control. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

With the world’s focus on Russia and its war in Ukraine, China has been advancing its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, amid Iran’s political and military withdrawal from the Levant. Turkey, through the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), has been expanding its footprint in Central Asia. Ankara aims to increase its political and economic influence over the region by promoting regional stability and building stronger ties. Its objectives can be categorized as follows:

• Pan-Turkism: Turkey sees itself as the head of the Turkic-speaking peoples in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Using various tools and strategies, Turkey aims to enhance its cultural, historical and linguistic ties. For instance, in September 2024, the Turkic Academy agreed on a common 34-letter alphabet that would help the 170 million Turkic people worldwide understand and cooperate with each other more effectively.
• The OTS is also another way for Turkey to position itself in a vital role amid regional political dynamics. Central Asia looks to balance relationships with Russia and China, while the U.S. is working to undermine their influence, making Turkey an appealing partner for Central Asian states that seek to diversify their foreign relations and avoid dependence on a single external power. These states engage in multilateral forums such as the OTS and strengthen bilateral ties, such as when Turkey and Kazakhstan signed a deal to become strategic partners.

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On December 30, Germany’s Der Spiegel, a publication often perceived as critical and biased against Azerbaijan – similar to many other German media outlets – reported on Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s reaction to Russia’s handling of a recent aeroplane crash crisis between the two countries. The publication noted, “Aliyev’s reaction is a testament to the increased weight of his country.” It continued, “Aliyev called the previous statements from the Russian side ‘nonsensical,’ ‘absurd,’ and ‘stupid.’ He spoke of attempts to cover up the situation and made it clear that with his apology, Putin had fulfilled only one of several conditions that Baku had demanded of Moscow.” For Der Spiegel, it appeared surprising that a relatively small country in Russia’s neighbourhood – often dismissed in the West as part of Moscow’s “backyard” – could stand up assertively against perceived injustices and demand its rights. READ MORE

By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Georgian parliamentary elections on 26 October 2024 have been highly contested with the opposition claiming that their win was stolen from them by the incumbent Georgian Dream party. As a result, the opposition initiated a legal procedure, demanded new elections and started peaceful protests against the election result, apparently to no avail. On 16 November, Georgia’s Central Election Commission validated the results of October’s highly contested elections, despite weeks of protests by the opposition and accusations of widespread fraud and Russian interference that were refuted by the Kremlin. This AIES Comment provides a perspective based on a combination of issues that highlight not just a divided but also a traumatised Georgian society that remembers the August 2008 war and is not ready to fight Russia again nor to deal with potential Russian interference. READ MORE

Gayrat Khonnazarov, Editor-in-Chief, UzA news agency

The Republic of Uzbekistan has demonstrated significant success in the international arena, strengthening its active participation in the United Nations (UN) and its specialized agencies. In 2024, the country achieved a number of key milestones that underline its commitment to universal principles and standards in the areas of human rights, socio-economic development, labor, and global cooperation. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On October 15, Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways Rovshan Rustamov arrived in Tehran to meet his Iranian counterpart Jabbar Ali Zakeri Sardroudi to discuss the construction of a railway line linking Azerbaijan’s East Zangezur region and its Nakhchivan exclave through Iran. The meeting came amid intensive diplomatic negotiations between Azerbaijan and Iran regarding the Aras Corridor transit route linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and further to Türkiye via Iran after a period of silence and diplomatic rifts between the two neighbors. The Aras Corridor project, strategically significant for both Baku and Tehran, emerged following Azerbaijan’s persistent efforts after the 2020 Karabakh War to establish regional communication lines, particularly a land route, through Armenia’s Syunik province to Nakhchivan and Türkiye, known as the Zangezur Corridor. The ongoing confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the land route through Syunik province has been a major point of contention, delaying the signing of a final peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan. READ MORE

By Nvard CHALIKYAN, Research Fellow, APRI Armenia
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow, APRI Armenia
Verej ISANIANS, Senior Editor, APRI Armenia

The South Caucasus is an important Eurasian political and economic hub, as its transport networks have the potential to facilitate travel across the continent. Control over the South Caucasus grants access to the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea basin, serving as a gateway to Central Asia and the Greater Middle East. Given its strategic importance, regional powers such as Russia, Türkiye, and Iran have vied for influence in the South Caucasus for centuries. In recent years, the demand for alternative transport corridors has surged amid the ongoing Ukraine war, sanctions on Russia, conflicts in the West Asia (Middle East) region, and the resulting difficulties with traditional supply routes such as the Suez Canal. Consequently, the South Caucasus has become increasingly important as a link between Asia, Europe, and Russia. READ MORE

Bakhram Sotiboldiev,
Head of the Department of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

In today's rapidly changing world, Uzbekistan confidently positions itself as one of the key players on the international stage. The country’s foreign policy, reinvigorated with the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as President in 2016, demonstrates impressive results, transforming the republic into a significant center for regional and global diplomacy. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On October 3, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan hosted a high-level event in collaboration with the European Union, the Central Asian countries located along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (also known as the Middle Corridor), the South Caucasus states, and Türkiye, as well as the major international financial institutions. The event resulted in the establishment of a Coordination Platform for the Middle Corridor. According to the European Union, the Coordination Platform will focus on promoting the transit corridor and implementing priority infrastructure projects while coordinating investments in the South Caucasus and Türkiye. The European Union announced plans to launch a regional transport program in 2025 to support infrastructure development and provide technical assistance for improving standards, digitalization, and interoperability across the region. The Middle Corridor is an essential route that will allow Central Asia to better access Europe without having to go through sanctioned Russia, but it still faces numerous economic, logistical, and political roadblocks in its development. READ MORE

Export is a key driver of the economy, enabling the development of production, the creation of new jobs, and the growth of GDP. For this reason, every state seeks to support enterprises aiming to expand their exports to international markets. This article explores the comprehensive measures of direct support for exporters in Uzbekistan.
Export support in Uzbekistan is carried out systematically, strictly adhering to the goal set in the Uzbekistan 2030 Strategy — increasing the share of the private sector in exports to 60%.
Here are some indicative figures: from 2017 to 2023, Uzbekistan’s total exports reached $120 billion. In 2023 alone, export volumes amounted to $24 billion, marking a 64% increase compared to 2017.
READ MORE

By Tabib Huseynov, independent policy analyst and researcher

In a move that has left many in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and beyond scratching their heads, the Armenian Constitutional Court adopted on September 26 a landmark ruling No. 1749, greenlighting the border delimitation process with Azerbaijan. The text of the ruling (henceforth referred to as Ruling 1749 or simply, the ruling) was published three days later over the weekend, which invites questions about whether this delay was intended to minimize scrutiny as the initial news cycle on the decision faded and public attention shifted elsewhere. Some Armenian commentators hailed the ruling, claiming it invalidates Baku's criticism that Armenia's Constitution harbours territorial claims against Azerbaijan. On October 4, Armenian foreign ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan echoed this argument, claiming the ruling proves Armenia’s Constitution contains no territorial claims. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

In his book “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics” one of the world’s leading realist scholars John J. Mearsheimer argues that in an unbalanced multipolarity, the balance of power is so asymmetrically distributed in favour of one side, that other great powers have no choice but to come together to balance the hegemonic power. This is the only rational choice among other great powers. As such, this kind of international order is fragile and always prone to wars. Within this logic, many would assume that Eurasian powers such as Russia and China should have fully backed Iran or its non-state allies in the Middle East to defeat Israel, or at least contain US interests in the region. Interestingly, this is not the case. Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi (another rising Eurasian power) are engaging in strategic balance and realpolitik to assess the situation, waiting for the outcome of the US presidential elections, and aiming to contain any spillover effect to their zone of influence. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Türkiye’s Statistics Department reported in July that exports to Russia had shrunk by 28 percent from the previous year due to continuous pressure from US sanctions against Russia. The value of these exports reached only $4.16 billion in the first quarter of 2024, representing a decline from a peak of $5.80 billion the previous year. Imports surged in 2021 to a peak of $27.7 billion just before the outbreak of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and have since fallen, though they still remain far above 2020 levels. Since Russia’s invasion, the West has imposed harsh economic sanctions on the country to exert pressure on the country. Since then, however, Moscow has gone to enormous effort to circumvent those sanctions and maintain international trade. In this regard, Türkiye, a long-time Russian energy importer, has become an outlet for the Russian global economy. Turkish-Russian relations have fluctuated over the course of the war, as Türkiye tries to maintain a balanced position between the West and Russia, as well as with other regional players in the Middle East. READ MORE

On November 11-13, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev is taking part in the World Summit on Combating Climate Change at the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which will be held in Baku.

Delegations from almost 200 countries at the level of heads of state, government and ministers, representatives of international organizations, NGOs, expert, scientific and social circles are expected to participate in the conference. READ MORE

Dilafruz Khusanova,
Head of the Press Service of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Uzbekistan

Agriculture is one of the leading sectors of Uzbekistan’s economy.
The annual open Dialogue of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev with entrepreneurs, which has already become a tradition, once again gave impetus to new ideas and projects for representatives of all business categories. This year, discussions at the main platform in the world of Uzbek business took place on August 20 in Nukus. At the event, the Head of State announced new initiatives in five areas. READ MORE

Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia. READ MORE

Tashkent hosted a press conference of international observer missions representing the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) structures at the October 27 elections.

Azay Guliyev, Special Coordinator and Head of the OSCE short-term observers, Sargis Khandanyan, Head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly delegation, and Douglas Wake, Head of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) election observation mission shared their impressions of the monitoring. READ MORE

Lola Rakhmanbaeva, Advisor to the Minister of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change on Information Policy- Press Secretary

Agriculture is one of the leading sectors of Uzbekistan’s economy.
As a country with unique natural resources and rich cultural heritage, Uzbekistan is increasingly aware of the need for active action in the fight against climate change. The country is taking a number of measures and initiatives aimed at achieving sustainable and green development, which plays a key role in global efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Israeli President Isaac Herzog concluded his historic first visit to Albania in September, shortly after his first-ever trip to Serbia, where both sides agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation amid Israel's extending military campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Although the recent intensive diplomatic dialogue between Israel and Balkan states is gaining more impetus, it is not a new phenomenon. In the last five years, much has been done to ensure Israel’s expanding diplomatic, security, and economic ties with the Balkans, particularly with Albania and Serbia. In light of the worsening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s large-scale military campaign in Gaza and Southern Lebanon, Tel Aviv sought to build new alliances and partnerships at a critical time. READ MORE

By Anahide PILIBOSSIAN, Vice President of Strategy and Development, APRI Armenia
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The events of the year 2022 led the European Union to build up its foreign and security policy efforts. Its unprecedented actions in the South Caucasus since then include: The EU and Azerbaijan signed a Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic Partnership in the Field of Energy in July 2022; in late 2022, a short-term EU civilian observer mission was established in Armenia (despite Armenia being a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO]), followed by a two-year mission, the EU Mission to Armenia, in February 2023; a new Partnership Agenda was announced in February 2024; Georgia received EU candidate status in December 2023; European Council President Charles Michel initiated the Brussels format to facilitate peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
While the EU’s intention of being a constructive neighbour and a foreign policy powerhouse in the region is commendable, regional events have stress-tested its strength, signalling the limits of its engagement. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On August 18–19, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a two-day visit to Azerbaijan. This marked the first state visit by a Russian president to the South Caucasian republic and only the second visit in the bilateral relationship since former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev’s trip to Moscow in 2002. Contrary to expectations from local observers, the visit did not yield any significant agreements or binding political and economic arrangements. A few announcements were made regarding future joint initiatives, including cooperation on food security, labour inspections, the establishment of a Russian-Azerbaijani university, and the joint production of oil tankers. An agreement was also reached to expand the partnership between Russia’s public joint-stock company (PJSC) Gazprom and the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) . Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller revealed that the two sides agreed to broaden their “multifaceted strategic partnership,” particularly concerning the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) project. He also mentioned the planned signing of a comprehensive scientific and technical cooperation program in September. While few details were disclosed, this marked their first public reference to the INSTC project, about which little is currently known. Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan demonstrates how Russia seeks to maintain its influence in the region, which could lead to neighbouring states, such as Iran and Armenia, feeling threatened. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Israeli President Isaac Herzog concluded his historic first visit to Albania in September, shortly after his first-ever trip to Serbia, where both sides agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation amid Israel's extending military campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Although the recent intensive diplomatic dialogue between Israel and Balkan states is gaining more impetus, it is not a new phenomenon. In the last five years, much has been done to ensure Israel’s expanding diplomatic, security, and economic ties with the Balkans, particularly with Albania and Serbia. In light of the worsening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s large-scale military campaign in Gaza and Southern Lebanon, Tel Aviv sought to build new alliances and partnerships at a critical time. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On June 11, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended a session of the BRICS group (a loose political-economic grouping originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in Moscow. While there, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu. During the face-to-face meeting with Putin, Fidan discussed bilateral economic and political relations, focusing on the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East caused by the war in Gaza. Putin vowed to “fully support” Turkish membership in BRICS and build stronger ties to facilitate further economic cooperation. Fidan’s visit to Russia came shortly after he visited China, where he reiterated Ankara’s willingness to join BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). These pronouncements have raised eyebrows in the West. US Ambassador to Türkiye Jeff Flake declared that Türkiye’s place is “in the West” and voiced his hope that Ankara would decide against joining the bloc. READ MORE

Karine Javakova,
Head of the Department of State and Legal Disciplines and Ensuring Human Rights of the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Doctor of Philosophy, Professor

Uzbekistan has created a solid legal framework to ensure freedom of speech and information, as well as the development of the media, improvement of the legal basis for the activities and protection of the professional rights of journalists. Considering that the liberalization of the information sphere and its development are priority tasks in the construction of the New Uzbekistan, after the constitutional reform, the articles devoted to these rights were significantly expanded. READ MORE