By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The South Caucasus always has quite complicated geopolitics. Russia, the US, the EU, Iran, Turkey, and China all have interests here. Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have different domestic political structures and cultures. Besides that, their national security threat perception and foreign policy goals do not coincide with each other. The protracted conflicts in Nagorno Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia make the regional geopolitics even more complicated. All actors involved in the South Caucasus seek to exploit these conflicts to pursue their national interests; meanwhile, conflicting parties themselves have an absolutely different understanding on how these conflicts may be resolved. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

”Recent waves of protests in Iran that broke out as a result of the Government decision to significantly raise gasoline prices, pose potential problems to all of its neighbors, including Armenia. One of the most critical problems can be the possible influx of refugees into the territory of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh.
Domestic instability in Iran is a source of concern for all its neighbors, including Armenia. Iran is one of the only two open borders Armenia has to reach the outside world. Any significant weakening of Iranian state institutions may complicate the export and import operations through Iran which definitely will put additional pressure on the Armenian economy. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The international security architecture is undergoing tremendous transformations. The relative decline of the US influence, rising China, more confident Russia, turmoil in the Middle East, rift in transatlantic relations and growing populism are the key patterns of current international relations. These developments are influencing virtually all regions of the world. Changes are not circumventing South Caucasus too. The region witnessed Armenian “Velvet revolution” in 2018, the protests and change of government in Georgia in June – September 2019 and, most recently, significant political transformations in Azerbaijan resulting in resignation of many key representatives of old ruling elites. READ MORE

By Armine Arzumanyan, Graduate of Renmin University, PR of China

China's main goals in Central Asia may not directly hint at the region's long-term strategic importance, but the outcomes of China's engagement in the region clearly show concrete signs of it. China's emergence as the dominant actor in the region’s energy and infrastructure sectors, along with its growing presence as the lender of choice for Central Asia, has had deep consequences as Beijing has quietly cultivated the defense component of its newfound presence in region. Though relatively little studied, China's energy-infrastructure-defense tridimensional approach is of immense importance. READ MORE.

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The US – China relations are usually described as the most powerful force to shape the global security architecture for the upcoming decades. They have gone through tremendous transformations over the recent 45 years. The opening to China launched by the Nixon Administration was part of a US strategy to deter and contain the Soviet Union. Since the late 1980s the US have accelerated its economic relations with China creating a heavy interdependence. READ MORE

Joint Study with “Yeni nesil”, coordinated by Boris Navasardian, President, Yerevan Press Club

The main purpose of this study was to consider the feasibility and prospects of revival of the Track-2 diplomacy and the development of appropriate recommendations. Although it was conceived and supported by the US government even before the political changes in Armenia, its relevance was confirmed by the intensification of the dialogue at the official level between Yerevan and Baku in the summer of 2018. Certain characteristics of the renewed interest in the informal communication were revealed during the visit to Yerevan of the Azerbaijani journalist Shahin Hajiyev, in February 2019, and by the interest of Armenian journalists to visit the neighboring country. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The relations (or the lack thereof) between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and European Union (EU) are one of the key topics of debate between international relations pundits. There are different assessments regarding the current situation and the way forward. However, almost all experts agree that the key issue here resides in the relationship between Russia and the West (US/EU/NATO). As long as this relationship is at its lowest point since the end of the Cold War, there is almost no chance of any substantial cooperation between these two organizations. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia and China are both among the ancient civilizations of human history. They share millennia of mutual contacts via the ancient Silk Road. However, history is not the only thing which unites the two nations. Both Armenians and Chinese put enormous emphasis on protecting their national identities and traditions. Of course, this does not mean that Armenia and China are not interested or involved in the current wave of globalization. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Turkey is successfully managing to implement a strategic balancing act in its relations with the US and Russia. Other regional actors may look at this policy and take good note.
Since the summer 2016 Turkish foreign policy has been facing a tough challenge: how to balance its growing partnership with Russia with its relations with the US? The rising tensions between the US and Russia, as well as the widening gap between the US and Turkish interests in Syria, the refusal by Washington to extradite cleric Fetullah Gulen, and simmering doubts among the Turkish leadership regarding the possible involvement of the US in the 2016 July military coup attempt, make this task even more daunting. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

South Caucasus is a part of EU’s Eastern Partnership program. Launched in 2009, the Eastern Partnership envisages fostering relations between the EU and six former Soviet Union republics – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The key goal of this program is the signature of Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements to bring about political association and economic integration. The top priority for the EU has been the political and economic development of the region, as Brussels did not want to have a permanent source of instability in its immediate neighborhood. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia and Georgia have a long history of relations. In more recent times both republics were parts of the Soviet Union, and after the collapse of the latter the two states have found themselves involved in the regional geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Each of them chose its own foreign policy priorities based upon relevant perceptions of vital national interests. Armenia, being under joint Azerbaijani – Turkish pressure due to the Karabakh conflict and with memories of 1915 Armenian Genocide still fresh has no alternative but to establish political-military alliance with Russia. Georgia, with historical grievances over Russia’s role in demolishing Georgian independent statehood and still fresh memories of April 1989 tragic events in downtown Tbilisi, chose the path towards Euro-Atlantic integration. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Relations with the United States are of significant importance for Armenia. Despite the relative decline in the US position as the only world super power, Washington still remains the number one global power in the world. The US is a Minsk Group Co-chair country, actively involved in the Karabakh conflict settlement process, and it exerts great influence in the neighborhood of Armenia. America is also home for the most influential part of Armenian Diaspora, which may play a key role in bringing desperately needed investments into the Armenian economy. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Iran is one of the key geopolitical actors of the Middle East. Despite the current “diplomatic isolation and maximum economic pressure” campaign launched by the US President Trump Administration, Iran retains its capabilities of making serious impact on regional geopolitics. It exerts political and economic influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen through various state and non-state actors and has a vast toolbox of asymmetric methods of political, economic and military struggle. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

A pivot towards the West is simply not in Armenia’s best interest.
Immediately after the “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia during the spring of 2018, the main narrative regarding possible developments in Armenian and Russian relations focused on negative expectations. Conventional wisdom brought plenty of reasons for such a mood. Russian authorities do not like leaders who come to power through street demonstrations, and Russia mainly exerts power in its neighbourhood through a network of corrupt and oligarchic elites. READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

As good news is less scandalous, it is rarely spread. However, it is necessary to point out that the percentage of people, who live in poverty, reached a historic minimum in 2018. Unfortunately, there was no appropriate reaction of the international community regarding this development. Over the last 30 years, the number of people who live in poverty has decreased by 1 billion. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The expert community dealing with international relations and security studies is involved in active debates regarding the current phase and future developments of the international security architecture. The prevailing topic is the end of United States (US) unipolar hegemony and establishment of more multi-polar, but an unstable and more complicated world with less respect towards the international laws and growing emphasis on coercive policy including threats and use of military force, economic sanctions and hybrid tactics. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The United States President Donald J. Trump’s decision to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights brought upon criticism and admiration from both anti- and pro-Israeli groups worldwide. However, most parts of the discussion were focused on the damages or gains of that step for the US interests in the Middle East or for competing Arab and Israeli narratives regarding the history of the Golan Heights. Meanwhile, one of the lasting implications of this decision will be the future degradation of the world order based on international norms, rules, and principles. READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

As good news is less scandalous, it is rarely spread. However, it is necessary to point out that the percentage of people, who live in poverty, reached a historic minimum in 2018. Unfortunately, there was no appropriate reaction of the international community regarding this development. Over the last 30 years, the number of people who live in poverty has decreased by 1 billion. READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

Environmental resources such as water and air have always been necessary for human life and human activities. For the majority of human history, the environment did, however, not represent a problem for mankind and its sustainable development. The environment and the natural resources satisfied the needs of the people, without causing damage to the next generations. In the second half of the 20th century, the topic of environmental protection has entered the political agenda, because humanity’s economic activities have raised environmental pollution to a level that threatens various species and even the ecosystem as a whole. READ MORE

By Armine Arzumanyan, Student, Renmin University, PR of China

Aiming to create a future where all roads lead to Beijing, China now plans to obtain a global role in politics by putting itself at the centre of global economic affairs through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is the most ambitious geo-economic vision in recent history. The BRI and its goals, that have been given many different evaluations, has suggested cooperation in Central Asia, West Asia and Eastern Europe. To maintain a balanced security environment at the conjunction of Europe and Asia and to ensure a successful realization of the BRI, China will need a reliable strategic partner in the South Caucasus. This essay points out why Armenia is most likely to be the strategic ally China will need, drawing out the main perspectives and paradigms for more advanced Sino-Armenian relations. READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

Since the first years of the restoration of independence, Georgia and Ukraine tried to establish close relations with the European Union. In the beginning of 1990’s, the European Union had already its own concrete position towards both states and considered the development of a regional partnership with post-Soviet republics as a main goal. The EU was promoting the integration of the new independent states to the international community and providing internal stability. EU’s CFSP was taking into consideration the same strategy toward all the post-soviet republics – Russia, Ukraine, as well as the South Caucasus or the Central Asian states. The purposes of EU on the way of transformation of those republics were practically similar. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
It is time for Armenia to deepen its relations with Iran and China, out of necessity rather than choice.

Armenia continues to face a hard geopolitical reality. The 2018 Velvet revolution has brought hope of the possibility of significant and systemic changes in domestic policy - including in the fight against corruption, furthering the rule of law, and reducing monopolies over key imports and exports from and to Armenia. However, the revolution did not change the geopolitical juncture around Armenia. Yerevan continues to face joint Azerbaijani-Turkish pressure to make concessions in the Karabakh conflict settlement process. READ MORE

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

On 11 April 2019, NATO confirmed US plans to deploy of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to Romania. According to NATO officials, the United States will fulfil its commitment to NATO’s Ballistic Missile Defence by the temporary deployment of a THAAD system to Deveselu in Romania. The scheduled work is part of the United States European Phased Adaptive Approach to ballistic missile defence, which has been implemented since September 2009. In response, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Grushko said: “Russia is “closely following” the temporary deployment of a THAAD system to the Deveselu base in Romania.” READ MORE.

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

In recent years, Turkish President Erdogan has turned his country towards the East. In so doing, he is risking a break with his NATO allies in the West.
The failed coup in Turkey on 15 July 2016 has been a turning point in US-Turkey relations. The coup has left many questions from US officials unanswered by their Turkish counterparts. In addition, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's request for the extradition of US-born Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, whom Erdogan called the head behind the coup, was repeatedly rejected by the US Department of Justice because of insufficient evidence. This point was disputed by Turkish officials who claimed that they had provided sufficient evidence of Gulen's complicity in the coup. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since the victory of the "Velvet Revolution" in Armenia, the key foreign policy issue facing the new Armenian authorities is the Karabakh conflict. The negotiation process has been stalled since the failed Kazan summit in June 2011, and the April 2016 four day war made any possible movement forward even less likely. The negotiations after April 2016 were focused on the launch of confidence building measures including the establishment of the ceasefire violations investigation mechanisms and the increase of the OSCE monitoring mission personnel. However, even these modest goals were difficult to achieve as Azerbaijan was urging for a start of "substantial" negotiations on issues of territories and status, otherwise perceiving the confidence building measures as a way to cement the current status quo. READ MORE