By Vusal GULIYEV, Visiting Research Fellow at the Asian Studies Center of Boğaziçi University

The Russo‑Ukrainian war has affected global container traffic flows more profoundly than any other recent crisis. A series of West‑led sanctions and export restrictions imposed on Moscow has forced logistics companies to avoid shipping consignments via Russia’s Northern Corridor. At the same time, the disruption of operations through the Trans‑Siberian transit line has opened up new avenues for wide‑ranging cooperation along the emerging Trans‑Eurasian transport and trade corridors. The current geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe gives an additional impetus to what countries like Türkiye officially call the Trans‑Caspian East‑West‑Middle Corridor Initiative as well as to a set of containerized rail freight transport networks that traverse Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Anatolia whilst circumventing Russian territory. This alternative multimodal cross‑regional path—widely known as the Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route (TITR)— could help ease current logistics woes and begin a new chapter in terms of interconnectivity across the Euro‑Asian transportation networks, as global freight flows struggle to pick up speed in the wake of heavy economic sanctions on Kremlin. READ MORE

By Ayaz MUSEYIBOV, Head of Department, Center for Analysis and Communication of Economic Reforms of the Republic of Azerbaijan

After implementing a number of trans-Eurasian energy and logistics mega-projects, such as the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil pipeline, Southern Gas Corridor and Trans-Caspian International Transportation Route, Azerbaijan has also strategically committed itself to policies designed to turn the South Caucasus country into a regional digital hub. This initiative has already secured buy in from several countries and major companies in the IT space. Notably, this past April, Italy’s largest internet service provider and one of the world’s leading operators, Sparkle, and Azerbaijan’s top wholesale telecommunications operator, AzerTelecom, signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation within the framework of the Digital Silk Way project (not to be confused with China’s Digital Silk Road), aimed at creating a digital telecommunications corridor connecting Europe and Asia via Azerbaijan. READ MORE

By Ayaz MUSEYIBOV, Head of Department, Center for Analysis and Communication of Economic Reforms of the Republic of Azerbaijan

Currently, energy and trade routes security is one of the major considerations at the global level. In the wake of the recent global events, the importance of energy resources is more likely to become a dominant matter which the global economy tremendously needs.
Energy supply to Europe, particularly to South and South-Eastern Europe, depends on only one source. However, the European Commission is accelerating the economic diversification processes beginning with the gas routes in order to reduce the economic dependency. Hence, the EU has already held various talks with energy players such as Egypt, Qatar, the United States, South Korea, Nigeria, and Azerbaijan to increase natural gas supplies in the case of a gas crisis. READ MORE

By Ahmed Mousa Jiyad, Development Consultancy & Research, Norway

The collapse of the global oil market is undoubtedly unprecedented in its timing, magnitude, spread and devastating impacts across the globe. A strange and unpredicted association of a few, but major, factors had contributed to the current threat, causing much uncertainty and vulnerability on national and global levels. The revised "OPEC+" production cut agreed on 12 April prompted initial minor improvement in oil price, but there remains very many serious concerns that such reduction is much below what is needed to bring stability to and balances a saturated global oil market. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The world economy has been in troubled waters since late 2018. The US – China trade war rattled the markets and triggered the significant changes in global supply chains. Many industrial giants were actively discussing the dislocation of production facilities from China to South East Asia nations such as Vietnam and Cambodia seeking to decrease the negative impact of the trade war.[…] However, the novel Coronavirus (COVID – 19) outbreak, which started in Chinese Wuhan city, has launched its seemingly unstoppable march around the globe since late January 2020. READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

By Putin's order, flights to Georgia from Russia will be prohibited from July 8. Based on past experience, it can be mentioned, that this step from the official Kremlin may not be a catastrophe for Georgia and on the contrary, to be a chance for the better future. The opening of the Russian market during the last several years and the partial settlement of relations with Russia was considered as a means of growth of Georgia's economy, but the developments since 2013 have proved contradictory. READ MORE

By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert

The international community has so far paid little attention to the South Caucasus where the conflict resolution process is stuck in political limbo for years. This apparent neglect and the lack of understanding of the deep-rooted issues have created an informational landscape where fake news stories harm the ordinary people and violate their fundamental right to make informed choices on the basis of accurate information that is free of deception and manipulation. In effect, the current climate of disinformation aggravates regional tensions and makes incumbent authorities vulnerable to instability. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The South Caucasus is facing an infrastructure development boom. However, Armenia is in stark isolation, with no major project passing through the country.
The launch of new transit routes and transport infrastructure are key topics widely discussed within the context of the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Since the late 1990s several new pipelines, highways and railroads have been constructed traversing the region. Given the re-emergence of Russia as a key player in the post-Soviet space, since President Putin's ascendance to power in 2000, new transport corridors and large infrastructure projects have become factors in the wider competition between Russia and western countries. READ MORE

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

There is a preconceived and very inaccurate perception in the West at large that the Russian Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) has and will continue to have difficulties in the coming years because Russia faces domestic economic challenges caused by the low price of oil, continuing economic sanctions imposed by the EU and the US and the breakdown of defence industrial relations with Ukraine.
There is very little understanding in the West that for President Vladimir Putin the issue of rearmament and well-functioning of the MIC are of crucial importance, and that the Russian president is not ready to give up an inch in tenaciously pursuing this ambitious items on his domestic agenda. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia should take additional steps to overcome its regional isolation and boost its economic cooperation with the outside world, otherwise in the long-term it would be more and more difficult for it to counter Azerbaijani and Turkish pressure.
On October 30, 2017 an opening ceremony for the newly constructed Baku - Tbilisi - Kars railway link was held in Baku. The Presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as the Prime Ministers of Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and representatives of Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, participated in the ceremony. The BTK was hailed as one of the shortest routes connecting Asia with Europe, with clear eye for it to be included in China's "One Belt - One Road" project. READ MORE

Mehmet Ogutcu
EGF Affiliated Expert

LONDON - As the world is preparing to leave 2016 behind as a year fraught with political surprises, financial crises and market volatility, governments and businesses including those in Turkey have started to set their eyes on what the next 12 months have in store for them politically and economically. 

Clearly, global risks are more elevated and more interconnected than we have ever seen before and demand a proactive and integrated response to address potential impacts. To refresh your memory, since the end of the Bretton Woods order in the 1970s, there have been serious financial crises every seven years over the past 40 years: 1987, 1997, 2007.  If you ask me whether the global crisis which has been brewing in the last few years could erupt in 2017, my answer would be yes. READ MORE

The second stakeholder consultation round in EGF's ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh research took place on 06-08 July 2014 in Berlin (Germany), including introduction of a post-conflict scenario building workshop. More than 30 experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and international partner NGOs and institutions attended this highly successful event, held in a constructive atmosphere of exchange. It has been the first step towards exploring the idea of a roadmap leading towards an economically integrated South Caucasus, and created a platform for exchange of information between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts. During the post-conflict scenario building workshop, regional participants simulated the negotiation of a roadmap for the implementation of economic components of a peace agreement built upon the Madrid principles, encompassing joint economic measures in areas such as energy, transport, trade, rehabilitation of the territories affected by the conflict, and the return of IDPs to their homeland.

Please click here for the summary of conclusions.
Please click here to see the agenda of the seminar, and participants’ biographies.
Please click here to see the EGF presentation on this research.

Ben McPherson,
EGF Eurasian politics researcher

In a recent letter to the European Geopolitical Forum, HE Vladimir Norov, the ambassador of the Republic of Uzbekistan in Belgium, highlighted the robust economic development his country has enjoyed since the turn of the millennium. In addition, he described government priorities for 2014 aimed at continuing the boom. READ MORE

By George Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

Why use the OSCE to take a “jibe” at you know who ?

When on 6 December 2012, in the margins of the OSCE ministerial meeting in Dublin, the US state secretary Ms. Hillary Clinton warned about "a new effort by oppressive governments to "re-Sovietize" much of Eastern Europe and Central Asia" , many observers of Eurasian affairs might have wondered why she lashed out at Russia just before meeting foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss the Syrian crisis. READ MORE

by Naim Ameur
Expert on political transition in Tunisia and the Maghreb

One year after the Jasmine Revolution of January 14, 2011, Tunisia has successfully advanced in its democratic transition and political reform process. The election of the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) held on October 23, 2011 was well organised, and for the first time in history, it was fair. Al-Nahdha (which means “renaissance” in Arabic), a moderate Islamic party, won 41 per cent of the NCA seats. READ MORE

The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.

Leading Russian and international energy professionals have shared their views on these energy policy challenges in an online session. Click here to go into the discussions or here to view forum summary