By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

US President Donald J. Trump recent decision to withdraw American forces from Syria caught everyone by surprise: the Washington establishment, foreign policy pundits and everyone else who follow the Middle East Geopolitics. Given the top priority which President Trump has attached to the containment of Iran and curbing its activities in the Middle East, many believed that US presence in Syria should have been either expanded or at least stayed the same. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

President Donald Trump’s announcement at the end of 2018 that he would withdraw U.S. troops from Syria came as a surprise to all parties involved, sparking particular concerns among America’s Syrian Kurdish allies. The move followed President Trump’s declaration of victory over ISIS after a four-year military campaign fighting alongside Syrian Kurdish forces. This sudden and unexpected decision has been widely criticized not only by allies but also inside the White House, with many analysts arguing that the U.S. withdrawal will expose the Syrian Kurds to an attack by Turkey READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On November 19, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid a long-awaited official visit to Belarus, where he met with his counterpart, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On this occasion, the Belarusian and Azerbaijani state news agencies praised the level of bilateral strategic cooperation, widely citing Lukashenka’s words to Aliyev: “Belarus has been waiting for you” (Belta, November 19). The Azerbaijani president’s trip to Minsk coincided with “growing frictions” between Belarus and Armenia, two formal allies within the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The United States' decision to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran has triggered a new crisis around Iran. The Trump administration states that it does not pursue the policy of “regime change” but rather wants to get a “change of behaviour” from Tehran. However, the key American demands – withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria, the halt of Iranian missile program and significant reduction of Iranian involvement in Iraq and Yemen – are tantamount to the capitulation. It’s obvious that if any Iranian government agrees to capitulate – that would be the shortest and safest way to domestic political turmoil which may result in regime change. READ MORE

By EGF Editorial Staff

Since the end of October 2018, a new operative communication line (crisis hotline) has been established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two countries that have been at war over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), a region recognized as Azerbaijani by the International Community, but inhabited by a majority Armenian population. According to official sources from both sides, the level of military tension on the Line of Contact (LoC) between the conflicting parties has significantly decreased (from about 90 reports of ceasefire breaches/day, to about 20 reports/day). The opening of this new communication channel had been agreed several weeks before by the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime-Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, during an informal meeting held in the margins of the CIS summit in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) on 27-28 September 2018. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Turkey's strategic alliance with Azerbaijan, trilateral co-operation including Georgia and its efforts to transform itself into a regional energy hub will continue to be the main features of the Erdogan government policy in the South Caucasus.
24 June 2018 was a big day for Turkish domestic politics. Turkey elected both the President and the Parliament. Given the sweeping constitutional changes approved in the April 2017 referendum, the new President has become an almighty figure in Turkey. Despite various assessments envisaging hard times for the incumbent Turkish President, Erdogan managed to win the race without entering into a possibly dangerous run-off. READ MORE

By Nana Gegelashvili, EGF Affiliated Expert

On April 23, Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan resigned in response to mass protests. On March 2, 2018, the presidential elections took place in Armenia. According to the amendments to the Armenian Constitution adopted at the December 6, 2015 referendum, initiated by the ruling Republican Party, the president becomes a symbolic figure, while the real power goes to the prime minister. However, despite Serzh Sargsyan’s assurances that he was not going to occupy the chair of the prime minister, the majority of voters in Armenia were confident that it was the incumbent president who would become the next prime minister, which would allow him thus to retain all the power in his hands. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The G7 and Shanghai Co-operation Organisation summits last week highlighted the decline of western dominated post-cold war order, and a growing role for regional powers in their respective zones of influence.
Last week world attention was focused on two key international summits - the G7 in Canada and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in China. The first was a gathering of advanced economies, with established democratic institutions and traditions, the second a summit of the "rising others", including two giants - China and India - as well as Russia, desperately vying for a seat at the table of global powers. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The April – May 2018 “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia caught many by surprise. A few, if any, domestic or foreign experts anticipated such a quick removal from power of the long-term leader Serzh Sargsyan and the Republican Party. Many questions regarding the factors which facilitated the revolution remained unanswered. However, protest leader Nikol Pashinyan has been elected Prime Minister on May 8, and he will hold that position at least until the snap Parliamentary elections, either in November 2018 or in spring 2019. READ MORE

By Jack Sharples, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas

With European gas import demand having risen substantially since 2014, Gazprom has dramatically increased its sales on the European market. In Q1 2018, Gazprom reported record daily gas exports to Europe in late February and early March. This Comment addresses the question of how those volumes were delivered to the market, and the extent to which the infrastructure for delivery of those volumes was used, highlighting that, in times of peak European gas import demand, full utilisation of the Nord Stream and Yamal-Europe pipelines left Ukraine as the only transit route with spare capacity. READ MORE

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

On 17 April 2018, Armenia’s National Assembly overwhelmingly voted to install Serzh Sargsyan -former president of the country- as prime minister. They unequivocally ignored the “voice of the street” calling for a change of face at the helm of this rather small, but ambitious post-Soviet state. This vote was supposed to conclude a power capture scheme started back in 2015.[…] Under pressure from independent civil society, then president Sargsyan had promised not to turn up as candidate for the prime-ministerial post. READ MORE

By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert

The world’s future is currently endangered by numerous fundamental threats, yet Western democracies fear only one – Vladimir Putin. On all geopolitical fronts of the emerging multipolar world the Russian President has smartly backlashed against all collective challenges mounted by the West. Small wonder the West’s incessant fear of Russia’s military power has made Putin the world’s most powerful man. What is currently happening in West-Russia relations is not a new Cold War; it is not even a renewed East-West divide. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

An "Eurasianist" ideology is helping to consolidate a Russia - Turkey strategic alliance, as a viable tool to achieve long term strategic interests in the Middle East and beyond.
The security architecture of the Middle East is in the midst of a tremendous transformation. Since the end of the First World War the region has been under Western domination of some form or another. In 1920s and 1930s it was wrapped within the mandate system imposed by the League of Nations, and since the end of the Second World War the US has been the regional kingmaker. The Soviet Union had some footholds such as Egypt during Nasser's rule, as well as Syria and parts of Yemen. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since gaining independence in 1991 Armenia – Georgia relations have been characterized as friendly and mutually beneficial. Georgia is one of only two routes connecting Armenia to the world and Armenia serves as a land bridge for Georgia to Iran. The mainly positive historical memories also play a role in fomenting friendly images within both societies. […] Yet, there is a lack of clear articulation of the strategic rationale behind those bilateral relations. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The convergence in the timing of key political processes in Armenia and Azerbaijan has heightened interest in Armenia regarding Azerbaijan's domestic developments.
The Azerbaijani President decision to move Presidential elections from October to April 2018 caught many in Armenia by surprise. The expert community put forward several clues on potential reasons for such a decision. The most discussed option was the possible deterioration of the economic situation in Azerbaijan in the second half of the year, which theoretically may complicate the re-election of Aliyev. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since 2014, the containment of Russia has been one of the most popular topics within the expert community dealing with Geopolitics and Geostrategy. This term has been actively used by the Western political circles, including high level state officials and senior leaders of NATO. The Russian officials also use this term to describe Western, and, in particular, US policy towards Moscow. However, despite emphasizing the necessity to contain Russia in the post-Soviet space, including in the South Caucasus, little if anything is being done to change the geopolitical status quo. READ MORE

By Mehmood-Ul-Hassan Khan, EGF Associated Expert on South Asian geopolitics,
The view from Lahore, Pakistan

Turkmenistan and Pakistan traditionally enjoy close, cordial relations marked by trust and understanding. Bilateral collaboration is growing steadily in a number of sectors. Indeed, on January 15-16, 2018 one of Turkmenistan's most prominent political figures, Rashid Meredov, conducted an official visit to Pakistan. READ MORE

by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Over the last few years, the confrontation between Russia and the West has made the headlines of plenty of academic and media analysis. Not surprisingly, the countries in-between located at the epi-center of this confrontation have been struggling to re-balance their positions against Washington, Brussels, and Moscow. What scenarios would most accurately outline the future of this confrontation in the geopolitical area between the Baltic Sea and the Wider Black Sea? READ MORE

By Stepan Grigoryan, Head, Ana­lyt­i­cal Centre for Glob­al­i­sa­tion and Regional Coop­er­a­tion, Armenia

The statement from the President of Armenia in September 2013 sounded like a bolt from the blue. He would not sign the Asso­ci­a­tion Agreement with the European Union at the planned November Eastern Part­ner­ship Summit in Vilnius, he said. Instead, Armenia would be joining the Russian led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This signified Armenia's departure from a multi-vector foreign policy. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia, the European Union and Russia had more to gain than lose from the signing of the new Armenia - EU enhanced co-operation agreement. Paradoxically Armenia's membership of the EAEU was transformed from a liability into an asset during Yerevan's second attempt at negotiations with the EU.
On November 24, 2017 Armenia and EU signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) during the Eastern Partnership Brussels summit. The negotiations were launched in December 2015, and the agreement was initialled in March 2017. This was the second attempt to sign a new agreement between Armenia and EU. In 2010 – 2013, negotiations were held to elaborate an Association Agreement (AA), including the establishment of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Georgia and Armenia need to develop a strategic relationship in order to see off a number of geo-political challenges.
Armenia and Georgia are both facing tough foreign policy challenges. Armenia has to deal with constant, joint, Azerbaijani-Turkish pressure over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Another hard task is the effort to develop relations with the Euro-Atlantic institutions, whilst simultaneously not jeopardizing strategic relations with Russia. The alliance with Moscow is itself a challenge given Armenia's overdependence on Russia, and Russia's growing cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

All three internationally recognized republics of the South Caucasus – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - are facing hard challenges in pursuing their foreign policies. They have to take into account contradicting/coinciding interests of regional and global actors involved in the region. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the main challenges and opportunities of Armenian, Georgian and Azerbaijani foreign policies with a focus on their interactions with Russia and the West. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
A raft of issues are complicating relations between long-time allies Turkey and the United States. But both sides continue using diplomatic back-channels to get as many concessions as possible from each other without fatally harming bilateral relations.
US - Turkey relations are probably at their lowest point since the start of the Cold War in late 1940s. Turkey, as a NATO member, played a key role in fortifying the alliance's southern flank against the Soviet threat. The collapse of the Soviet Union created new geo-strategic conditions, and both the US and Turkey were in quest of new rationales for fostering their relationship. In the 1990s, Turkey was perceived in the US as a potential model on how to develop democratic institutions in newly independent republics with Muslim majority populations from the Caucasus and Central Asia. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
As the US and Russia compete and maneuver for advantage in the arena of international politics, those nations connected to each are often affected by their shifting relations. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the dynamics of US–Russia relations and their implications for the South Caucasus. Since late 2011, US–Russia relations have deteriorated sharply and entered an acute crisis phase in spring 2014. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The 25 September referendum in the Kurdish region may not lead to Kurdish independence any time soon, but neighbouring countries are apprehensive.
On September 25, 2017 the long-anticipated independence referendum took place in the region administered by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and other mainly Kurdish populated disputed areas of Iraq. Those areas are outside of KRG administered boundaries defined by the Iraqi constitution, but currently are under control of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters. According to preliminary official results voting turnout was 72 percent and approximately 93 percent of participants voted for independence. READ MORE