By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku

At the dawn of the unipolar international system – following the collapse of the Communist system in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus – “the end of history” was announced. It was expected that the benevolent hegemony of the United States would last for many decades to come – liberal values and democracy would be spread to each corner of the world. The events of recent years and the chaos in the international order shows that the world is transforming from a unipolar world into a multipolar one. This transformation process has its reverberations in regions such as the South Caucasus. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Two key topics concerning Georgia dominated the attention of the international media and expert community interested in the South Caucasus in past week. One was the outbreak of the novel Coronavirus and the growing number of cases identified in Georgia; the second issue was connected with domestic politics.[…] However, from regional perspective the key event of the past week was the official visit of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Georgia on March 3 - 4. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On February 9, 2020 early parliamentary elections were held in Azerbaijan. According to preliminary results the ruling "New Azerbaijan" party has won a clear majority, while, some representatives of opposition, such as Erkin Gadirli from REAL, have entered the Parliament. However, the main speculation around the elections was not the name of the winner; few if any had expectations that ruling party may lose the elections, or that the process will be in full compliance with liberal democracy requirements. The key question is on the implications of these elections for the domestic balance of power in Azerbaijan, and the future development of the country. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The recent US – Iran escalation is the hot topic for the Middle East pundits. Many policy briefs have already been published discussing the motives behind the US and Iran actions, the implications of these developments on the US Presidential campaign and Iranian Parliamentary elections. Many experts are seeking to assess the future of the US – Iran relations and the Iran’s influence in the region. Meanwhile, US – Iran tensions which fell short of a full blown war will have an impact also on Russia – Iran relations and in particular on their uneasy partnership in Syria. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The South Caucasus always has quite complicated geopolitics. Russia, the US, the EU, Iran, Turkey, and China all have interests here. Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have different domestic political structures and cultures. Besides that, their national security threat perception and foreign policy goals do not coincide with each other. The protracted conflicts in Nagorno Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia make the regional geopolitics even more complicated. All actors involved in the South Caucasus seek to exploit these conflicts to pursue their national interests; meanwhile, conflicting parties themselves have an absolutely different understanding on how these conflicts may be resolved. READ MORE

By Armine Arzumanyan, Graduate of Renmin University, PR of China

China's main goals in Central Asia may not directly hint at the region's long-term strategic importance, but the outcomes of China's engagement in the region clearly show concrete signs of it. China's emergence as the dominant actor in the region’s energy and infrastructure sectors, along with its growing presence as the lender of choice for Central Asia, has had deep consequences as Beijing has quietly cultivated the defense component of its newfound presence in region. Though relatively little studied, China's energy-infrastructure-defense tridimensional approach is of immense importance. READ MORE.

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Prospects of Russia - China relations are currently hotly debated by international security pundits. The West in general, and the US in particular, see these two states as key adversaries seeking to undermine the international world order. Simultaneously, the prevailing mood among Western expert and academic circles is confident that, at the end of the day, China is a more significant challenge to Russia than it is to the West, given the vast and scarcely populated areas of Siberia and the Russian Far East bordering China. READ MORE

Joint Study with “Yeni nesil”, coordinated by Boris Navasardian, President, Yerevan Press Club

The main purpose of this study was to consider the feasibility and prospects of revival of the Track-2 diplomacy and the development of appropriate recommendations. Although it was conceived and supported by the US government even before the political changes in Armenia, its relevance was confirmed by the intensification of the dialogue at the official level between Yerevan and Baku in the summer of 2018. Certain characteristics of the renewed interest in the informal communication were revealed during the visit to Yerevan of the Azerbaijani journalist Shahin Hajiyev, in February 2019, and by the interest of Armenian journalists to visit the neighboring country. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Relations with the United States are of significant importance for Armenia. Despite the relative decline in the US position as the only world super power, Washington still remains the number one global power in the world. The US is a Minsk Group Co-chair country, actively involved in the Karabakh conflict settlement process, and it exerts great influence in the neighborhood of Armenia. America is also home for the most influential part of Armenian Diaspora, which may play a key role in bringing desperately needed investments into the Armenian economy. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

In recent years, Russia – Turkey relations have gone through tremendous transformations. In November 2015, they entered the phase of acute crisis with no hope of quick improvements. However, in summer 2016 the process of reconciliation was launched, which resulted in bringing an unprecedented level of cooperation in economy and in the military-technical sphere. What are the main factors for such change and what does the current Russia – Turkey partnership mean for the South Caucasus. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

A pivot towards the West is simply not in Armenia’s best interest.
Immediately after the “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia during the spring of 2018, the main narrative regarding possible developments in Armenian and Russian relations focused on negative expectations. Conventional wisdom brought plenty of reasons for such a mood. Russian authorities do not like leaders who come to power through street demonstrations, and Russia mainly exerts power in its neighbourhood through a network of corrupt and oligarchic elites. READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

As good news is less scandalous, it is rarely spread. However, it is necessary to point out that the percentage of people, who live in poverty, reached a historic minimum in 2018. Unfortunately, there was no appropriate reaction of the international community regarding this development. Over the last 30 years, the number of people who live in poverty has decreased by 1 billion. READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

Environmental resources such as water and air have always been necessary for human life and human activities. For the majority of human history, the environment did, however, not represent a problem for mankind and its sustainable development. The environment and the natural resources satisfied the needs of the people, without causing damage to the next generations. In the second half of the 20th century, the topic of environmental protection has entered the political agenda, because humanity’s economic activities have raised environmental pollution to a level that threatens various species and even the ecosystem as a whole. READ MORE

By Armine Arzumanyan, Student, Renmin University, PR of China

Aiming to create a future where all roads lead to Beijing, China now plans to obtain a global role in politics by putting itself at the centre of global economic affairs through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is the most ambitious geo-economic vision in recent history. The BRI and its goals, that have been given many different evaluations, has suggested cooperation in Central Asia, West Asia and Eastern Europe. To maintain a balanced security environment at the conjunction of Europe and Asia and to ensure a successful realization of the BRI, China will need a reliable strategic partner in the South Caucasus. This essay points out why Armenia is most likely to be the strategic ally China will need, drawing out the main perspectives and paradigms for more advanced Sino-Armenian relations. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On March 4, Romania, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkmenistan held a ministerial meeting in Bucharest—the first such quadripartite gathering for these governments. During this meeting of their foreign ministers, the parties issued a joint statement reaffirming mutual respect for each other’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of their internationally recognized borders. Additionally, a number of other important issues were raised in Bucharest, including a discussion on establishing a multimodal corridor for the transport of goods between the Black Sea and Caspian Sea basins, a project officially named the Caspian Sea–Black Sea International Transport Corridor (ITC-CSBS). READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

Since the first years of the restoration of independence, Georgia and Ukraine tried to establish close relations with the European Union. In the beginning of 1990’s, the European Union had already its own concrete position towards both states and considered the development of a regional partnership with post-Soviet republics as a main goal. The EU was promoting the integration of the new independent states to the international community and providing internal stability. EU’s CFSP was taking into consideration the same strategy toward all the post-soviet republics – Russia, Ukraine, as well as the South Caucasus or the Central Asian states. The purposes of EU on the way of transformation of those republics were practically similar. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
It is time for Armenia to deepen its relations with Iran and China, out of necessity rather than choice.

Armenia continues to face a hard geopolitical reality. The 2018 Velvet revolution has brought hope of the possibility of significant and systemic changes in domestic policy - including in the fight against corruption, furthering the rule of law, and reducing monopolies over key imports and exports from and to Armenia. However, the revolution did not change the geopolitical juncture around Armenia. Yerevan continues to face joint Azerbaijani-Turkish pressure to make concessions in the Karabakh conflict settlement process. READ MORE

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

On 11 April 2019, NATO confirmed US plans to deploy of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to Romania. According to NATO officials, the United States will fulfil its commitment to NATO’s Ballistic Missile Defence by the temporary deployment of a THAAD system to Deveselu in Romania. The scheduled work is part of the United States European Phased Adaptive Approach to ballistic missile defence, which has been implemented since September 2009. In response, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Grushko said: “Russia is “closely following” the temporary deployment of a THAAD system to the Deveselu base in Romania.” READ MORE.

By the European Geopolitical Forum Editorial Staff

In 2018, the Republic of Kazakhstan successfully completed its two-year membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Over this period, Astana acted as an honest broker, known for its effective balanced approach and neutrality against all international actors. In just two years, representatives of Kazakhstan took part in more than 1,000 open and closed UNSC meetings, 38 informal events, and contributed to 115 resolutions and 48 statements of the Council Presidency. READ MORE. See the original on-line media publication here

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

In recent years, Turkish President Erdogan has turned his country towards the East. In so doing, he is risking a break with his NATO allies in the West.
The failed coup in Turkey on 15 July 2016 has been a turning point in US-Turkey relations. The coup has left many questions from US officials unanswered by their Turkish counterparts. In addition, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's request for the extradition of US-born Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, whom Erdogan called the head behind the coup, was repeatedly rejected by the US Department of Justice because of insufficient evidence. This point was disputed by Turkish officials who claimed that they had provided sufficient evidence of Gulen's complicity in the coup. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since the launch of Chinese “One Belt, One Road (OBOR)” initiative in September 2013 later renamed as "Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)", the bulk of academic research has been devoted to the evaluation of the suggested land and maritime routes of this gigantic project. In recent years the main focus of the Western and especially American expert community was the link between BRI and Chinese foreign policy strategy with more emphasize of possible negative ramifications of the project for the states involved. The terms such as “debt diplomacy” or “debt trap” were disseminating more and more in both academic and political circles. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a surprise official visit to Azerbaijan, on September 27. The formal reason for his arrival was to hold talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as well as to jointly attend the Ninth Interregional Russia-Azerbaijan Forum. Local mass media in both Azerbaijan and Russia described Putin’s visit as a next significant step in improving the strategic partnership between the two countries. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

As experts and politicians all over the world seek to grasp the key contours of emerging world order, sometimes dubbed the Post-Post-Cold War Era, there are few things agreed upon by the vast majority of them. Only one issue is clear: US – China relations will define the course of the 21st century. Will the US be able to accommodate the rise of China, keeping its role as a top global power? Will China be ready to be a part of the Western-created world order? Or will it try to do that, simultaneously amending it to Beijing’s goal to establish China as a centered global order? READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The current phase of the international relations can be best characterized by one word – transition. The Post-cold war order is rapidly disappearing creating strategic ambiguity for all actors. The U.S. hegemony is over or close to over despite the fact that militarily Washington will be far from the reach for several decades to come. However, growing national debt, looming crisis in social security and Medicare systems, uncontrolled migration, growing populism, and partisan fighting does not bode well for the future U.S. dominance. READ MORE

By Nana Gegelashvili, EGF Affiliated Expert

On April 23, Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan resigned in response to mass protests. On March 2, 2018, the presidential elections took place in Armenia. According to the amendments to the Armenian Constitution adopted at the December 6, 2015 referendum, initiated by the ruling Republican Party, the president becomes a symbolic figure, while the real power goes to the prime minister. However, despite Serzh Sargsyan’s assurances that he was not going to occupy the chair of the prime minister, the majority of voters in Armenia were confident that it was the incumbent president who would become the next prime minister, which would allow him thus to retain all the power in his hands. READ MORE