Uzbekistan President Karimov’s long-term vision of a Central Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone is now much closer to realisation[Over]
Snapshot analysis by Ben McPherson, Principal Editor, European Geopolitical Forum
In May 2014 an important initiative, the Central Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone, or CANWFZ, was enshrined by the actions of five nuclear states—the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and Russia—as they signed a Protocol agreeing to respect the non-proliferation framework. The idea has been discussed since at least 1993, when the President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, proposed it at the UN General Assembly. READ MORE
- Monday, 2 March 2015, 15:25
“Towards Europe?! Straddling Fault Lines and Choosing Sides in the South Caucasus” [Over] 10th Workshop of the PfP Consortium’s “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus” Study Group (RSSC SG)
On 6-8 November, 2014, the PfPC and the Austrian National Defense Academy jointly organized the 10th Workshop of the RSSC SG at “Schloss Rothschild” in Reichenau (Austria). This workshop offered a platform for constructive dialogue among government and academic experts on the prospective roles of the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in breaking the current deadlocks in the resolution of the protracted conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh. During this workshop, a panel moderated by George Niculescu, the Head of Research of EGF, examined the background and the potential implications from the perspectives of South Caucasus (SC) states of having to make undesirable choices between the EU and the EEU. The panelists’ presentations and the ensuing discussion highlighted that, against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, maintaining freedom of choice on the ways and levels of engagement with both the EU and the EEU is a critical interest for each SC state, and a prerequisite for effective conflict resolution. In this context, Mr Niculescu thought that “the EU might work towards developing options for harmonizing the European and Eurasian integration normative systems. One of the options to be explored might involve sustaining post-conflict regional economic cooperation as a way to circumvent the dilemma of the states caught in-between competing European and Eurasian integration processes.” READ MORE. Please see the relevant post on Facebook here.
- Friday, 20 February 2015, 18:32
Despite hopes, Substantial Obstacles Remain for Near-Term Iraqi Gas Exports[Over] Ahmed Mousa Jiyad,
EGF Affiliated Expert
Following closely after the ground-breaking Turkey-Russia gas export/pipeline MoU announced last week, another agreement was publicized between the Iraqi government and the KRG that could send additional KRG gas to Turkey. Some argue that, if the KRG ramps up and exports significant volumes, it could pose problems for Putin’s new plan. EGF Affiliated Expert Ahmed Mousa Jiyad explains why this is unlikely. READ MORE
- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, 10:54
Implications of the Crimea Crisis for Energy Markets: Vulnerabilities of Markets and Weakness of States[Over]
Dr Andrei V. Belyi, EGF Guest Contributor
A crisis of international governance spreads into the political sphere and puts under peril the peace between the Russia and Ukraine, in addition to heightening tension between Russia and the West. The political rhetoric from Brussels, Moscow and Washington increasingly resembles that of the Cold War. Many ask if there are serious implications in security of energy supply, as well as in investment and trade, either among causes or consequences of current events. The current situation demonstrates a deep vulnerability of states in the face of markets, and will be analysed along three groups of energy implications: transit-supply flows, investments and effects of sanctions. READ MORE
- Tuesday, 25 November 2014, 20:53
A Russian-American-Syrian Triangle: The Syrian Chemical Weapons and American-Russian Relations[Over]
By Professor Andrei Kreutz,
EGF Adviser on Trans-Atlantic Security
During the last few weeks, the Syrian-American-Russian triangle directly or indirectly involving all Syria’s neighbors and a number of other nations, has become one of the major focuses of the political commentaries. The Russian initiative to help disarm Syria from its chemical weapons and Putin’s article which was published in the New York Times on September 11, 2013 apparently contributed decisively to prevent a new American military intervention in the Middle East, and brought Russia and its leader world-wide public attention, unknown since the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to the well-known American political analyst George Friedman, for the first time since the early 1990s, the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was able to sit with US State Secretary Kerry as an equal.
READ MORE
- Friday, 17 January 2014, 07:55
Guest contribution: Gazprom is still relevant to the EU market, but for how long? [Over]
by Professor Natasha Udensiva
The U.S. shale gas revolution is spreading: more and more countries are talking about developing their own shale gas resources. How is this relevant for Gazprom? It is relevant because, with more countries developing their natural gas resources, Gazprom’s once-powerful monopoly may soon lose its hold on the European market. So far, the company’s strategy has relied on the exclusiveness of its vast resources. But shale development is undermining this very quickly. Soon, access to technology will trump resource access. Then, Gazprom’s only chance of reasserting its presence will be to lower its prices. READ MORE
Russia’s Soft Power: Does Moscow have any chance to achieve it?[Over]
by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security
The issue of soft power and its use in international relations, the concept of attracting and coopting rather than use of direct or indirect coercion as a means of persuasion, was introduced to present use by American scholar Joseph S Nye Jr. in 2002. However, both its concept and its practical use were in fact not new. Both modern and past history provides numerous examples of its previous applications. READ MORE
- Friday, 21 June 2013, 15:49
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