Martin Vladimirov,
Expert on Balkan-Black Sea External Relations and Energy Security

It has been two decades now since the southern energy corridor, linking the energy producing Caspian and Middle East regions with European consumers, was incepted. The 1990s proved to be very successful after the U.S. was able to fill in the geopolitical vacuum in the Wider Black Sea region and divert significant amounts of Caspian oil and gas away from Russia and in direction Europe. Yet the strong push for diversification of the European energy supply came to a sudden halt after 9/11. The U.S. changed its geopolitical priorities focusing on the destabilized Middle East and South Asia. Since then the EU has been painfully searching for alternatives in accessing the vast Caspian reserves. The Nabucco gas pipeline, which has been seen as the strategic continuation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) corridor, has remained only a distant dream as gas quantities available are simply not enough to fill the 31 billion cubic meters (bcm) pipeline capacity. READ MORE

Political Outlook for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt

Key points:

• Morocco’s monarchy seems to have survived the wind of change blowing on Arab countries last year and is currently trying to hold on to its power by allowing reforms that partly reduce its absolute authority.
• The adoption of a new constitution and the victory of moderate and nationalist Islamic parties are signs that mark Morocco’s gradual progress towards the demands of protesters who have taken the streets last year.
• However, civil society is not yet a primary actor in Moroccan politics and a widespread sense of communalism is still missing.
• Tensions are still present in Morocco, due to the unresponsiveness of the central government regarding the high levels of unemployment, structural corruption and deficiencies in welfare and health systems.
• Morocco has been praised by the international community for its counter-terrorism efforts, although major security risks stem from the unresolved situation of West Sahara. High unemployment and persisting poverty, however, continue to ensure fertile grounds for terrorist recruiters.
• New economic deals with the EU are expected to have a positive impact on the Moroccan economy, which is of great interest for foreign direct investors.
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Mikhail Roshchin

Former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan appears to have made some diplomatic strides in efforts to mediate the violent uprising in Syria. And Annan’s mission also has gained Russian support, which is a crucial key to an international consensus on how best to resolve the Syrian conflict. We are joined on the line with Mikhail Roshchin, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. READ MORE

Claudia Nocente
EGF Researcher, Global Security

Egypt’s Islamic state on the horizon

Egypt is once again in the headlines. The results of the first, allegedly, free elections after the ousting of Hosni Mubarak as the Egyptian president are causing widespread concern, especially in the West, about the country’s process towards democratization. Many fear that the legacy of the former political establishment will haunt the country for many years to come. Egyptians have been denied any aspect of a wealthy social and political life and are now concerned about the fruits of their courageous actions and the new seeds last year’s events have implanted. What will Egypt look like a year from now? Will it end up embracing a hardline Islamist direction in the administration of political power? READ MORE

By George Niculescu,
Director of Programs, Centre for East European and Asian Studies Bucharest,
Affiliated Expert, European Geopolitical Forum Brussels

Historically, the roots of the phrase "Euro-Atlantic security" stem from the revolutionary shift towards cooperative relations between NATO and its former adversaries from the Warsaw Treaty Organization promoted through the North Atlantic Cooperation Council and the Partnership for Peace (PfP). From an institutional point of view, since 1997, the Euro- Atlantic security is tightly linked with the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC) which has been created jointly by the NATO members and PfP countries (including Russia, Ukraine, and the other independent republics emerging from the dissolution of the former Soviet Union) as a forum enabling an "expanded political dimension of partnership and practical cooperation under the PfP" [Basic Document of the EAPC]. The EAPC was meant to complement the respective activities of the OSCE, the European Union, and the Council of Europe. READ MORE

In a recent interview for "The Voice of Russia", EGF Expert on Radical Islamic Movements, Mikhail Roshchin, explained the political dynamics emerging between Islamist and secular political parties in Egypt following recent parliamentary elections. His key message for all stakeholders engaged in the formation of new governance institutions in Egypt was that the Muslim Brotherhood, which now forms the largest political bloc in Egypt's new parliament, is more likely to broker political deals with secular parties rather than develop any sense of "ideological alliances" with other, more radical, Islamist factions. This will most likely remove the concerns over "new shades of green" emerging in the ensuing Egyptian political landscape and lead to further fragmentation of the political environment in advance of the country's looming presidential elections, which are currently scheduled for June 2012. Click HERE for the entire interview.
 

Dr Beniamin Poghosyan
Deputy Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies, MOD, Armenia
Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The Karabakh conflict negotiation process is in an obvious stalemate after the apparent failure of the Kazan summit which took place last June. Three-years of mediation efforts by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev accompanied by efforts of the Minsk Group’s two other Co-chair-state-leaders have delivered no results. The much anticipated breakthrough which should have taken place at the Kazan trilateral summit was transformed into a half page statement with no concrete steps and decisions. President Medvedev’s further efforts to move the process through bilateral meetings with Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents did not bring any meaningful results. Meanwhile, the situation in the front line is deteriorating mainly due to Azerbaijani snipers deadly attacks and retaliatory actions of Karabakh Armed Forces. READ MORE

Prof. Alla A.Yazkova,
Institute of Europe RAS, Moscow

Over the two decades that passed after the USSR disintegration the previously rather calm and in a way peripheral South Caucasus region has become a crossroad of internal contradictions and geopolitical competition. In the subsequent years this relatively small area was gradually turned into a hotbed of numerous conflicts involving not only Southern Caucasus countries but also European and global actors. Interference from the late 1990-s of world powers, first of all the United States and European Union, substantially aggravated situation. The US interest not only in creation of an energy transportation route, but also in barring Russian monopoly domination entailed growth of contradictions that in one or another way involved regional powers – Turkey and in the recent times Iran. READ MORE