Elkhan Nuriyev,
EGF Affiliated Expert

The mounting tension over Ukraine has introduced numerous dangers to the security situation in the South Caucasus. These negative ramifications are further exacerbated by the fact that Russia holds the key to resolving conflicts in the post-Soviet realm, especially in the absence of greater Western assertiveness. But Moscow and Brussels are caught up in geopolitical competition over the region. READ MORE

Ahmed Mousa Jiyad,
EGF Affiliated Expert

Following closely after the ground-breaking Turkey-Russia gas export/pipeline MoU announced last week, another agreement was publicized between the Iraqi government and the KRG that could send additional KRG gas to Turkey. Some argue that, if the KRG ramps up and exports significant volumes, it could pose problems for Putin’s new plan. EGF Affiliated Expert Ahmed Mousa Jiyad explains why this is unlikely. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Just like other parts of Eurasia, the South Caucasus is facing the challenge of a renewed East-West geopolitical competition underpinned by three evolving challenges: 1) a growing ideological gap between Russia and the West; 2) the chronic persistence of protracted conflicts; 3) the dilemma of post-Soviet states: European vs. Eurasian integration. More specifically, the South Caucasus geopolitical landscape is shaped by: READ MORE

The second stakeholder consultation round in EGF's ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh research took place on 06-08 July 2014 in Berlin (Germany), including introduction of a post-conflict scenario building workshop. More than 30 experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and international partner NGOs and institutions attended this highly successful event, held in a constructive atmosphere of exchange. It has been the first step towards exploring the idea of a roadmap leading towards an economically integrated South Caucasus, and created a platform for exchange of information between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts. During the post-conflict scenario building workshop, regional participants simulated the negotiation of a roadmap for the implementation of economic components of a peace agreement built upon the Madrid principles, encompassing joint economic measures in areas such as energy, transport, trade, rehabilitation of the territories affected by the conflict, and the return of IDPs to their homeland.

Please click here for the summary of conclusions.
Please click here to see the agenda of the seminar, and participants’ biographies.
Please click here to see the EGF presentation on this research.

Vasilije Boskovic,
EGF Guest Contributor

Montenegro is the only former Yugoslav republic where there was no change of government since 1989. The same political party, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), has ruled for 25 years consecutively. The party is led by Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, who was also president of the Republic of Montenegro from 1998 to 2002. What are the reasons the same political elite can hold onto power for more than two decades? READ MORE
Click here to read also "Protest virus appears contagious in Bosnia".

Dr Radu Dudau,
director of the Energy Policy Group Bucharest (EGF Information Partner)

Romania’s most important foreign energy policy project, the Nabucco gas pipeline, collapsed in June 2013 as the rivaling TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) won the bidding for transporting Azerbaijani gas to the EU. Hence, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) will link the Caspian Basin to Southern Italy via Turkey, Greece, Albania, and the Adriatic Sea. Shah Deniz consortium’s choice was predominantly commercial, yet it came to the detriment of Eastern Europe’s strategic necessities. But, although left with no large scale international project, Romania keeps significant options to improve its energy security on the medium term. This paper reviews Romania’s prospective new sources –internal and external – of primary energy. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

The Eastern Partnership Summit, held on 28-29 November 2013 in Vilnius, was supposed to highlight the progress achieved over the last four years by the EU on political association and economic integration with its eastern neighbours (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine). Although it resulted in initialling the Association Agreements of Georgia and Moldova, and in signing a few minor agreements with other eastern partners, the summit was hijacked by the growing geopolitical competition between the EU and Russia. The primary victims of this competition have been Armenia and Ukraine, who, under strong pressure from Russia, put off their plans to sign Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements with the EU. Other eastern partners have also felt the cold wind blowing across Europe within their economic, energy or security relations with Russia. READ MORE

Valentin Stoyanov
EGF Affiliated Expert

Bulgaria fails to bring in the ‘big energy projects’
Over the past two decades Bulgaria has had no success with the so called ‘big energy projects’. The recent failure of NABUCCO was also a failure of the country’s efforts to diversify its gas supplies. The prospects for shale gas exploration and production look similarly grim after a moratorium was imposed by the Parliament in the beginning of 2012. READ MORE