The likeliest scenarios for tomorrow’s Russia [Over] By Marat Terterov, PhD, Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF
The folly of predicting Russia’s future
When undertaking the task of seeking to forecast a ‘likely scenario’ for tomorrow’s Russia, one has to start with a caveat – predicting Russia’s future and what fate awaits the country in light of its continued military excursion in Ukraine is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. In other words, it is almost impossible to predict future political developments in Russia with any real certainty. This includes any efforts to predict whether Russia will continue to remain the arch belligerent in Ukraine, or whether it will be prepared to make concessions, or to forecast what impact either (or other) of these developments in the current conflict in Ukraine will have on the Russian regime of Vladimir Putin.
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- Thursday, 2 May 2024, 14:09
What Is at Stake in the Tavush Region?[Over] By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
Since Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s March 18 visit to Voskepar and Kiranc villages in the Tavush region, discussions and debates have been underway in Armenia on the situation along the Armenia – Azerbaijan border in that region. The visit took place after the statement of the office of Azerbaijan’s Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev, demanding the immediate return of “four non-enclave Azerbaijani villages’” located in Tavush along the Armenia – Azerbaijan border to Azerbaijan which were in principle covered in the demarcation and delimitation negotiations. During his meetings with villagers, the Armenian prime minister stated that “the process of delimitation and demarcation between Armenia and Azerbaijan was entering the practical stage.” Despite acknowledging that there were no agreements on maps and principles of the process and that Azerbaijan would not leave the Armenian territories currently under its control, the prime minister argued for withdrawing from those villages to avoid a new war. After these meetings, some representatives of the Armenian leadership, including the speaker of the National Assembly, started to state that those territories were not part of Armenia and should be returned to Azerbaijan.
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- Thursday, 2 May 2024, 14:07
What Does a Recent ISIS-K Terror Attack Mean for Turkey?[Over]
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
On January 28, 2024, masked assailants attacked a Roman Catholic church in Istanbul, killing one person. Shortly afterward, the Islamic State, through its official Amaq News Agency, claimed responsibility. Turkish police detained 47 people, most Central Asian nationals. The incident shed light on the growing presence in Turkey of a Central Asian offshoot of the Islamic State group known as ISIS-K for Khorasan, once a large portion of the Persian Empire now divided among Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asian states. The January 28 assault was the group’s first successful attack in Turkey since January 1, 2017, when jihadists invaded an Istanbul nightclub, killing 39 people and wounding nearly 80.
Since then, Turkish security forces have launched mass counter-operations against ISIS suspects in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. The operations appear to have deterred deadly terrorist attacks in large urban and border areas and to have depleted the militants’ financial resources. With the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, ISIS-K suspended overseas activities to focus more on Afghanistan and try to undermine the Taliban, which resumed control over the country after the Americans left. READ MORE
- Thursday, 2 May 2024, 14:06
The Role of Foreign Actors in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict[Over] By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
This AIES Focus discusses the four major foreign actors in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan within the time frame of the last 12 to 18 months. While Russia and Turkey are active and directly involved, China and India are implicitly but not explicitly involved in the conflict. As a result, the author tries to present and highlight the divergent and convergent perspectives of the foreign actors in the conflict. One of the major focal points of the conflict relates to what the Azerbaijani call the Zangezur corridor, and the Armenians perceive as a bone of contention. What is perhaps not least important to emphasise is that for Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, the corridor has a crucial role in the transportation link between Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Turkic States. As for Armenia and Iran, its neighbouring country, the establishment of such a corridor is perceived as an existential threat. READ MORE
- Thursday, 2 May 2024, 14:06
Eco-Tourism in Uzbekistan: A Journey Towards Sustainability[Over] In the heart of Central Asia, Uzbekistan, a country known for its dazzling architecture and rich history, is emerging as a promising eco-tourism destination.
Eco-tourism in Uzbekistan presents an opportunity to explore the country’s natural beauty while contributing to its sustainable development. As more travelers seek out eco-friendly travel options, Uzbekistan stands as a testament to the power of eco-tourism to transform not just the landscape, but also the lives of the people who call it home.
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- Thursday, 14 March 2024, 17:13
Strategic Abstention: The ‘Axis of Resistance’ Deliberate Inaction in Gaza[Over]
By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Amid the escalating Gaza war, a striking absence marks the regional conflict landscape: the non-involvement of the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ including Iran and its proxies. Nearly six weeks into the war, these forces have consistently communicated their decision to remain on the sidelines. This inaction comes into sharp focus against the backdrop of Iran’s strategy to leverage non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas in its proxy warfare. While Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, clarified their stance in a much-anticipated speech a month into the conflict, the impact of this abstention is profound. Israel, grappling with internal divisions and security vulnerabilities heightened by Hamas’s attacks, finds itself in a precarious position not seen in decades.
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- Tuesday, 5 December 2023, 13:02
The main directions of the state policy of Uzbekistan in the context of improving the country's position in international rankings and indices[Over] Tokhir Khasanov, Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, DSc. in Economics, Associate Professor
Uzbekistan, nestled in the heart of Central Asia, has historically been a melting pot of cultures and civilizations, thanks to its pivotal role in the Silk Road. Its rich tapestry of history reflects a blend of empires, nomads, and diverse cultures that have left their mark over millennia.
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- Tuesday, 28 November 2023, 07:45
Putin and the 2022 Russian Military Conflict in Post-Soviet Lands[Over] By Alan WHITEHORN, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada
Coming to power after the break-up of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, Lukashenko had ruled Belarus in a highly autocratic fashion for almost three decades, while seeking to navigate his country within Moscow’s sphere of influence. However, the aging leader’s arbitrary rule began to teeter and he faced a major challenge in the election of 2020. When skewed and rigged election results were announced, hundreds of thousands of voters of Belarus peacefully protested their strong objections.
The West echoed moral support to the mass of citizens voicing democratic demands on the streets, but provided little material assistance. Somewhat optimistically and naively, the West trusted that the unarmed people would peacefully prevail over the coercive might of the internal and external dictators in Minsk and Moscow. Putin, by contrast, sensing a vulnerable and weakened regime, provided his fellow authoritarian colleague with external assistance to forcefully crush the peaceful demonstrators. READ MORE
- Thursday, 17 March 2022, 07:54
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