by Professor Natasha Udensiva
The U.S. shale gas revolution is spreading: more and more countries are talking about developing their own shale gas resources. How is this relevant for Gazprom? It is relevant because, with more countries developing their natural gas resources, Gazprom’s once-powerful monopoly may soon lose its hold on the European market. So far, the company’s strategy has relied on the exclusiveness of its vast resources. But shale development is undermining this very quickly. Soon, access to technology will trump resource access. Then, Gazprom’s only chance of reasserting its presence will be to lower its prices. READ MORE

Interactive discussion hosted by the European Geopolitical Forum

On 18 June 2013, the European Geopolitical Forum (EGF) hosted an interactive discussion on “Conflict Management, Regionalism and Economic Integration in the South Caucasus: Does a light at the End of the Tunnel Exist?” in the hospitable premises of TUSIAD, Brussels. The debate was introduced and moderated by Dr. Marat Terterov, Executive Director, European Geopolitical Forum. It was attended by around 25 policy makers and experts from relevant Brussels-based international organizations (including NATO, the European Union, and the Energy Charter), NGOs, think tanks and embassies. READ MORE

by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security

The issue of soft power and its use in international relations, the concept of attracting and coopting rather than use of direct or indirect coercion as a means of persuasion, was introduced to present use by American scholar Joseph S Nye Jr. in 2002. However, both its concept and its practical use were in fact not new. Both modern and past history provides numerous examples of its previous applications. READ MORE

By Igor Alexeev
Russian journalist and blogger for Strategic Culture Foundation and Route Magazine. He writes on the oil and gas sector, Eurasian energy security and shipping industries in the Arctic.

European countries, including the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom expressed their interest in the expansion of Nord Stream. The third and fourth strings of the pipeline enjoy the highest level of political support in Europe. As a result Nord Stream will be the cornerstone of European energy security in the decades to come.
Nord Stream Fact Sheet

• Nord Stream is a twin pipeline system through the Baltic Sea transporting natural gas from Russia to Europe;
• It runs across the Baltic Sea waters from the Portovaya Bay (near Vyborg) to the German coast (near Greifswald) stretching over 1224 kilometers;
• The third and fourth lines are planned for annual capacities of 27.5 billion cubic meters each;
• The stakes in Nord Stream AG are distributed as follows: Gazprom holds 51%, Wintershall Holding and E.ON Ruhrgas – 15.5% each, Gasunie and GDF Suez – 9% each;
• Nord Stream will export gas from the Yuzhno-Russkoye oil and gas field, the Yamal Peninsula, Ob and Taz Bays and in perspective Shtokman field;
• The cost of construction of the first two sections was $7.4 billion.

By Igor Alexeev
Russian journalist and blogger for Strategic Culture Foundation and Route Magazine. He writes on the oil and gas sector, Eurasian energy security and shipping industries in the Arctic.

South Stream is an ambitious endeavor of Russia’s energy giant Gazprom to get direct access to the EU energy market. It is portrayed and criticized by some politicians in Europe as a “dangerous” gateway to a broader economic relationship with Moscow. Remarkably enough, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary have one-by-one opted for the project.
The South Stream Fact Sheet

• Gas pipeline will be 1455 km long in Southern and Central Europe;
• 8500 people will be employed in its construction, with 770 at the operational level;
• Eight compression stations are to be set up in the main transit countries;
• The South Stream planned transport capacity may reach 63 billion cubic meters;
• The overall cost of the project is approximately $39 billion.

7th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”

On 14-16 March 2013, George Niculescu, our Head of Research, attended the 7th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”, held in Tbilisi (Georgia). Mr Niculescu briefed a distinguished audience consisting of government officials, representatives of the EU and NATO, as well as of experts from regional and international think tanks and civil society on the EGF research paper on "A Pragmatic Review of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution: Could Economic Incentives Help Break the Current Stalemate?", published last October jointly with Dr. Marat Terterov. Mr Niculescu thus concluded that “the exit from the current stalemate in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would require starting up discussion around economic issues, and that the next step to this end might aim at setting up a comprehensive dialogue among interested businesses and experts from the conflicting parties together with international actors on post-conflict scenarios involving joint regional energy and infrastructure projects.” To see the Policy Recommendations issued in the aftermath of this workshop please click here. To look at the full text of the briefing please click here, and click here for the Powerpoint presentation.”

By Claudia Nocente,
Research Associate Global Security
February 2013

Key points:

• Egypt’s new administration between international praise and domestic unrest
• Morsi assumes pharaonic powers in an attempt to rid Egypt of Mubarak judges
• The felool take another shot in Egyptian politics
• The generals remain silent
• The Egyptian economy sinks. READ MORE

By Anna Ohanyan,
EGF Affiliated Expert on South Caucasus region building

There is much enthusiasm among researchers and policymakers alike concerning the pacifying effects of trade and broader interdependence among states. The European Union is an often cited example of greater regional integration as a way to enhance peace and security among neighboring states. This comparative regional study draws from the cases of the Balkans and South Caucasus in order (1) to offer a descriptive account of patterns and processes of regionalism in politically divided conflict areas, and (2) to examine the extent to which such regional engagement can positively affect ongoing conflict management efforts in a given conflict region. The study advocates promoting regional structures as a new and potentially effective approach to peace-building and security enhancement, toward managing the many 'frozen conflicts' both in the Balkans as well as in the South Caucasus. READ MORE