Ben McPherson,
EGF Eurasian politics researcher

In a recent letter to the European Geopolitical Forum, HE Vladimir Norov, the ambassador of the Republic of Uzbekistan in Belgium, highlighted the robust economic development his country has enjoyed since the turn of the millennium. In addition, he described government priorities for 2014 aimed at continuing the boom. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

The Eastern Partnership Summit, held on 28-29 November 2013 in Vilnius, was supposed to highlight the progress achieved over the last four years by the EU on political association and economic integration with its eastern neighbours (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine). Although it resulted in initialling the Association Agreements of Georgia and Moldova, and in signing a few minor agreements with other eastern partners, the summit was hijacked by the growing geopolitical competition between the EU and Russia. The primary victims of this competition have been Armenia and Ukraine, who, under strong pressure from Russia, put off their plans to sign Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements with the EU. Other eastern partners have also felt the cold wind blowing across Europe within their economic, energy or security relations with Russia. READ MORE

Fatemeh Shayan, University of Eshfahan, Iran
University of Tampere, Finland
Guest contributor to EGF

Do such organisations exist beyond the ‘self fulfilling prophecy’ level?
Much research has examined energy relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia,[1] but not the larger picture of energy relations between the EU and the Gas-Troika, made up of members Russia, Iran and Qatar. Although the Gas-Troika is in an early stage of development, increasing demand for gas, especially from the EU, has noticed members to attempt to present it as a future gas superpower. READ MORE

8th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”

On 07-09 November 2013, Mr. George Niculescu, the Head of Research of the European Geopolitical Forum, attended the 8th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau (Austria). Mr. Niculescu moderated the panel on “Alternative Models of Sovereignty in Practice” aiming to propose practical solutions for “joint political and administrative” governance in the South Caucasus. Distinguished panelists from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Germany and the United Kingdom put forward their thoughts on the subject, while the audience consisting of officials and experts from regional and international think tanks, education institutions, and civil society actively debated panelists’ proposals. Mr. Niculescu concluded that: “Rather than trying to impose unilateral solutions involving the final status of the unrecognized political entities in the South Caucasus, regional states and relevant international actors should rather focus creative energies on setting up transitional processes aimed at achieving multilateral governance over the regional commons. Moreover, as suggested by lessons learned in the Western Balkans, region building strategies should effectively complement international efforts for conflict transformation. However, a champion for regional integration is still missing in the South Caucasus. Potentially, the EU could revitalize its involvement in strengthening regionalism in the South Caucasus in strategic coordination with Russia and Turkey“. Click here to see an outline of the workshop and here to see the ensuing policy recommendations.

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

The announcement at the beginning of September 2013, in Moscow, by President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia's decision to join the Russia-led Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) apparently took many by surprise. Firstly, because in July 2013 Armenia concluded a lengthy four years negotiation on essential agreements, meant to upgrade its ties with the European Union (EU), which would be incompatible with joining the ECU. Secondly, because until recently (i.e. the run-up to the Vilnius Eastern Partnership summit to be held this fall) enlargement didn't seem a top priority for the ECU, the focus being more on making the customs union mechanisms effectively work for the existing membership. READ MORE

By Valentin Stoyanov
EGF Affiliated Expert
Gazprom’s South Stream gas pipeline project has been highly visible in the European media in recent months and appears to be going from strength to strength. The project seems to have high level political support and there is much speculation that actual construction is imminent, particularly in Serbia and Bulgaria. There are also rumors that the Russian company, Stroytransgaz, has signed “construction contracts” and is ready to commence operations. Further, in December 2012 there was even a symbolic first welding of pipes in the Russian coastal town of Anapa. For better or for worse, and taking into account the wider energy security debate between the EU and Russia, all of these developments appear to reflect “evidence” that the South Stream project is just about upon us. READ MORE

Interactive discussion hosted by the European Geopolitical Forum

On 18 June 2013, the European Geopolitical Forum (EGF) hosted an interactive discussion on “Conflict Management, Regionalism and Economic Integration in the South Caucasus: Does a light at the End of the Tunnel Exist?” in the hospitable premises of TUSIAD, Brussels. The debate was introduced and moderated by Dr. Marat Terterov, Executive Director, European Geopolitical Forum. It was attended by around 25 policy makers and experts from relevant Brussels-based international organizations (including NATO, the European Union, and the Energy Charter), NGOs, think tanks and embassies. READ MORE

7th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”

On 14-16 March 2013, George Niculescu, our Head of Research, attended the 7th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”, held in Tbilisi (Georgia). Mr Niculescu briefed a distinguished audience consisting of government officials, representatives of the EU and NATO, as well as of experts from regional and international think tanks and civil society on the EGF research paper on "A Pragmatic Review of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution: Could Economic Incentives Help Break the Current Stalemate?", published last October jointly with Dr. Marat Terterov. Mr Niculescu thus concluded that “the exit from the current stalemate in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would require starting up discussion around economic issues, and that the next step to this end might aim at setting up a comprehensive dialogue among interested businesses and experts from the conflicting parties together with international actors on post-conflict scenarios involving joint regional energy and infrastructure projects.” To see the Policy Recommendations issued in the aftermath of this workshop please click here. To look at the full text of the briefing please click here, and click here for the Powerpoint presentation.”