By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The devastating earthquake in Turkey, and Armenia's decision to provide humanitarian assistance and send rescue teams, have however opened a new window of opportunity for revitalizing the stalled [normalization] process". "Turkey assessed the Armenian government's gesture positively, and the Armenian foreign minister's visit to Turkey made it possible to advance the implementation of agreements reached in 2022. And yet, "earthquake diplomacy" will not lead to short-term breakthroughs in bilateral relations.
Devastating earthquakes of 7.8 and 7.5 magnitudes struck southern Turkey on 6 February 2023. By 10 April, the death toll had passed 50,000, while the number of wounded passed 100,000. More than 12,000 buildings were destroyed, and large-scale rescue operations were underway. Besides the immense human tragedy, the earthquake had domestic and foreign policy implications for Turkey. The country faces crucial presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 14 May. READ MORE

• April 15, 2023

By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran have grown rather raw recently in the wake of Baku’s inauguration of its first-ever embassy in Israel. Of course, diplomatic relations between the neighbours have steadily become more and more inflamed and embittered for several years now, with Iran concerned at the declining influence in the South Caucasus it has suffered since the second Karabakh war between Azerbaijan, urged on by Turkey, and Armenia in late 2020. And with a normalisation of diplomatic ties between Tehran and Baku unlikely in the near future, the big question remains unanswered: Is it possible that the tensions could escalate into a large-scale regional conflict?
The war of words between the two countries was aggravated in October 2022 when Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted large-scale military drills on its border with Azerbaijan. Baku opted to refrain from responding to the exercises with comments that might antagonise Tehran. However, the situation became even more explosive when, in late January, an Iranian citizen armed with a rifle burst into the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran and killed the building’s security chief and injured two of his colleagues. READ MORE

• April 15, 2023

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

2023 marks the centennial of the establishment of the Republic of Turkey, when the Turkish Grand National Assembly led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk proclaimed the establishment of the republic and the abolishment of the Caliphate that ruled Ottoman Turks for six centuries. For decades, the Kemalists and military-backed governments ruled Türkiye with a secular iron hand. It wasn’t until 2002, when the conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power that Kemalists’ monopoly on power was challenged, ending decades of unstable coalition governments. AKP’s early years were relatively peaceful, as the country experienced fast economic growth and continued openness to the West. However, as the authorities began facing domestic and regional challenges, illiberal democracy started to consolidate itself in Türkiye. In 2013, protests erupted in opposition to building a shopping mall in Istanbul’s Gezi Park. The government violently cracked down on the movement and began limiting civil liberties and curtailing press freedoms. Moreover, a failed coup attempt in 2016 consolidated authoritarianism in the country. READ MORE

• April 15, 2023

By Vusal GULIYEV, Visiting Research Fellow at the Asian Studies Center of Boğaziçi University

Located at a key geopolitical and geo-economic point in the Silk Road region, Azerbaijan has been a main initiator in the development of technologically advanced and economically viable trans-border logistics and transit services. This is largely due to Baku’s embrace of a wide spectrum of digitalization and innovation initiatives within the broad-based connectivity framework of the Middle Corridor Initiative (MCI) and other similar such projects. This IDD analytical policy brief will examine various aspects of this important topic as it relates to MCI.
Seizing new opportunities in the digital era whilst developing better measures to boost the digital economy and trade with embedded innovation and emerging technologies has become one of Azerbaijan’s top priorities in the past few years. In the wake of significant government-backed digital transformation efforts, special attention is now being placed on enhancing the variety of logistics services on offer, building cutting-edge infrastructure, and upgrading domestic communication systems. READ MORE

• April 15, 2023

Prof. dr. Faridun Sattarov, Department of Political Science, University of World Economy and Diplomacy

Today, the Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan is in the process of being transformed into a truly people’s document based on the principle of “human – society – state.” This is evidenced by the involvement of ordinary citizens, non-governmental organizations, representatives of business and professional circles, the scientific and expert community in the development of the new Constitution. More than 220,000 proposals were made during the nationwide discussion, which shows the exceptional importance of this political process.
A useful rule of thumb of constitutional law is the inadmissibility of a gap between the constitutional principles of the development of legal consciousness and social practice. The changing situation in the world demonstrates, first of all, that many tendencies of the past years are subject to serious revision and transformation today. Therefore, national constitutional development should address the effects global processes may have on the legal structure of the state. READ MORE

• April 12, 2023

By Alan WHITEHORN, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada

As we contemplate our current era of ongoing pandemics and wars, it is useful to utilize a comparative framework. In a geopolitical strategic analysis of the 2020 Karabakh war and that of the ongoing 2022-2023 war in Ukraine, we have witnessed the continuing importance of the technological revolution in warfare. Newspaper headlines around the world have proclaimed the pivotal use of drones and satellite-based intelligence for targeting in both cases. In the 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding territories, the extensive and critical use of Turkish and Israeli-made drones by Azerbaijan led to a swift and dramatic change in the military and geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus. The widespread impact of drones was somewhat of a surprise to the Armenian armed forces. READ MORE

• April 6, 2023

By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Georgia borders Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Turkey. It remains a transit hub for oil and gas pipelines originating in Azerbaijan and a road hub for goods coming from Iran via Armenia to the European Union (EU), from Armenia and travelling to Russia, and from Turkey and travelling to Russia and Azerbaijan. As a result, changes that are taking place in the Caucasus due to the Russian war against Ukraine are directly affecting Georgia. Russia as a gatekeeper in the South Caucasus is less able to defend its interests in the region and that results in the ongoing skirmishes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iranian military exercises on the border with Azerbaijan, and reciprocal Azerbaijani-Turkish exercises. Thus far, Georgia has kept itself out of the conflict and has even tried to play the role of mediator in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but to no avail, since Georgia is not considered a powerful enough conflict mediator. READ MORE

• April 6, 2023

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The 2007-2008 world financial crisis triggered discussions about the inevitable decline of the post-Cold War unipolar order, marked by absolute US hegemony. The Arab Spring, the 2014 Ukraine crisis, the Syrian civil war, and the botched US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 contributed to the ongoing debate about the relative decline of the US and the rise of other powers. The growing influence of non-Western institutions, such as the association of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), attempts to abandon the US dollar in bilateral trade, and the establishment of alternative international financial institutions, such as the New Development Bank of BRICS and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, seemed to shatter the undisputed leadership of Western political and financial institutions and the role of the US dollar as the only global reserve currency. The growing economic and military strength of China, the more assertive foreign policy of Russia, and India’s balanced foreign policy seeking to pursue cooperative relations with the West and Russia were signs of the changing nature of international relations. READ MORE

• April 6, 2023