Publications
Türkiye’s Policy in the South Caucasus: Navigating Normalization Efforts Amid Ankara’s “Azerbaijan First” Policy 
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and ensuing geopolitical developments revealed the paradoxes behind Türkiye’s motivations in the South Caucasus. This report examines the main directions of Türkiye’s foreign policy in the region, building on insights from desktop research, 18 interviews, and other convening opportunities.
Key findings:
- The importance of the South Caucasus for Türkiye is underestimated. The region has strong significance for Ankara from both a geopolitical and geoeconomic perspective.
- Türkiye’s policy in the South Caucasus is, and will likely remain, based on its strategic alliance with Azerbaijan and can be articulated as an “Azerbaijan first” policy.
- Azerbaijan–Türkiye ties consist of heavy interdependencies in many fields, from political to social and economic, rather than a “big brother/small brother” dynamic. If land access from Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan—and then directly to Türkiye—via Armenia’s Syunik region is established, Türkiye may lose any incentive to continue normalization and open borders with Armenia.
- Türkiye sees Russia as “an unavoidable evil” that will remain a constant factor in South Caucasus geopolitics, and Ankara aims to manage its relationship with Moscow, establish a Russia–Türkiye condominium, and substantially limit the presence and influence of the US, the EU, and NATO in the region. READ MORE
Publications
India at COP30: A Mismatch Between Grandstanding and Climate Action 
By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
India’s climate policy must demonstrate real achievements vis-à-vis fossil fuels while highlighting modest gains in the realm of green energy.
After attending COP30, the United Nations climate summit at the Brazilian city of Belem, India’s Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav declared on November 30 that the summit was “a significant milestone in advancing equity and climate justice.” He added that India had “achieved all its major goals at the global negotiations and its positions are reflected in all major decisions.” Despite this self-congratulatory message and India’s attempt to anoint itself as the leader of the developing world, New Delhi’s track record remains contradictory. Some impressive achievements sit alongside major loopholes in India’s climate policy and practice. As the Global South struggles to convince the developed world to play its part in climate financing, India has to do more to chart out a clear roadmap for reducing carbon footprints. READ MORE
Publications
High Stakes in India’s Refusal to Send Former Bangladesh PM to Trial By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
A carefully worded extradition treaty means New Delhi can hedge its bets, but it should be prepared for blowback.
"This is quite a game, politics. There are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests.” On the face of it, this adage is being turned on its head by New Delhi, which has ignored Dhaka’s December 2024 request to extradite former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina and former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal. However, it’s not just friendship with the former prime minister that could be shaping India’s current policy towards Dhaka. As bilateral relations have dived in recent months, New Delhi could be relying on Hasina to reverse-engineer Bangladeshi politics that have slipped out of India’s sphere of influence. That strategy, however, is fraught with risks. Not only might the outcome be counterproductive, but it also raises questions about policy towards its neighbourhood, where New Delhi has constantly struggled to find a friendly foothold despite its neighbourhood first policy. READ MORE
Publications
How China Shapes the Drone Divide in the Russia-Ukraine War
By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
The war in Ukraine has evolved into a complex geopolitical conflict while demonstrating the transformative role that drone technology has played in shaping the course of the war. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to actively embrace modern warfare technology, especially the use of First-Person Drones (FPVs) which were critical in inflicting grave damage on Russian forces using ‘meat grinder’ tactics to storm Ukrainian front-line positions. In the past two years, Ukrainian forces have used FPV drones for real-time intelligence and reconnaissance of Russian positions and troop movements while also deploying cost-effective “kamikaze” drones to target Russian recruits, tanks, howitzers, and other armoured vehicles. Although drone technology is now a core part of Ukraine’s struggle against Russian intervention, Kyiv initially faced an acute shortage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the early stages of the war, while the requirements of its frontline forces were partially met by civilian drones, mostly produced by the Chinese company DJI. READ MORE
