Publications
Implications of the US Presidential Elections for the South Caucasus By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
As the US presidential elections approached, pundits and politicians worldwide sought to predict the outcome and explore scenarios for US foreign policy under Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. This was unsurprising: Despite the end of the unipolar world order and significant shifts in the global balance of power, the United States remains the superpower capable of global influence. The South Caucasus was no exception, as pundits debated the potential implications of the election results for the region. The uncertainty ended on November 5, as Donald Trump secured his return to the White House in January 2025. What might the South Caucasus expect from Trump’s second presidency?
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Publications
New Azerbaijan-Iran Railway Agreement Grapples With Regional Tensions
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
On October 15, Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways Rovshan Rustamov arrived in Tehran to meet his Iranian counterpart Jabbar Ali Zakeri Sardroudi to discuss the construction of a railway line linking Azerbaijan’s East Zangezur region and its Nakhchivan exclave through Iran. The meeting came amid intensive diplomatic negotiations between Azerbaijan and Iran regarding the Aras Corridor transit route linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and further to Türkiye via Iran after a period of silence and diplomatic rifts between the two neighbors. The Aras Corridor project, strategically significant for both Baku and Tehran, emerged following Azerbaijan’s persistent efforts after the 2020 Karabakh War to establish regional communication lines, particularly a land route, through Armenia’s Syunik province to Nakhchivan and Türkiye, known as the Zangezur Corridor. The ongoing confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the land route through Syunik province has been a major point of contention, delaying the signing of a final peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan. READ MORE
Publications
The Future of Regional Corridors in the Middle East and India’s Role By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
With the future of key connectivity projects at stake, India must step up as a reliable mediator as the war in the Middle East escalates.
On 7 October 2023, Hamas launched the “al Aqsa Storm” operation against Israel, triggering a series of retaliatory military actions from both sides. Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Yemen also became involved, further escalating the conflict. With rising regional tensions and direct involvement from both Israel and Iran, instability across the Middle East has intensified. This conflict will also impact the future of economic corridors in the region in which India invests. In this context, the future of two important corridors—the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC)— is at stake. India initiated both corridors, emerging as a rising power in Eurasia.
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Publications
Armenia’s Constitutional Catch-22 By Tabib Huseynov, independent policy analyst and researcher
In October 2024, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan simultaneously approved a Protocol regulating the joint work of their respective border delimitation commissions. Originally signed in August, this Protocol sets the legal and procedural framework for the subsequent border delimitation process between the two South Caucasus neighbours, who have been locked in a territorial dispute for over three decades. The protocol’s enactment in both countries became possible after Armenia’s Constitutional Court issued a landmark Decision No. 1749 on 26 September 2024, confirming that the border delimitation agreement complied with Armenia’s Constitution. As border delimitation is a key issue in the post-war normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, this favourable decision was widely anticipated. However, the Court’s Decision is remarkable not for its outcome, but rather its legal rationale, which traps Armenia in a legal and political Catch-22. READ MORE