Publications
Exporting Power: Türkiye’s Defence Industry and the Politics of Strategic Autonomy
By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Over the last decade, the development of Turkey’s defence industry has become a crucial aspect of its soft power diplomacy in both regional and global politics. The country has made significant efforts to invest heavily in the development of its indigenous defence industry, reducing its dependence on imports and becoming a leading defence exporter in global markets. The rapidly changing regional and global geopolitical landscape, particularly after the Arab uprisings, has prompted Ankara to expand the country’s defence industry and reduce its reliance on overseas arms procurement and international supply chains. Since the ruling AKP government came to power, the country’s indigenous defence industry has undergone a significant transformation, steadily becoming the twelfth-largest arms exporter, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Given the regional instability marked by violent uprisings and sectarian conflicts, Türkiye’s pursuit of defence industry development can be understood as a primarily threat-driven strategy. This approach reflects an effort to enhance national defence capabilities and ensure strategic autonomy in response to both external security challenges and internal vulnerabilities. READ MORE
Publications
Post-Soviet Blues – Part 1 
By Alan WHITEHORN, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada
The collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, led to the emergence of a number of new, but vulnerable states. Russia, Belarus, and Georgia are three examples of cautionary tales. A decade and half ago in 2011, led by the charismatic opposition leader Alexei Navalny, tens of thousands of Russians gathered together in the capital city of Moscow to protest the continuing erosion of democratic safeguards and election fraud in the increasingly autocratic regime of Vladimir Putin. Tragically, Navalny’s fate proved to be poisoning, imprisonment and a suspicious death in a remote, gulag-like prison camp. READ MORE
Publications
Türkiye’s Policy in the South Caucasus: Navigating Normalization Efforts Amid Ankara’s “Azerbaijan First” Policy 
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and ensuing geopolitical developments revealed the paradoxes behind Türkiye’s motivations in the South Caucasus. This report examines the main directions of Türkiye’s foreign policy in the region, building on insights from desktop research, 18 interviews, and other convening opportunities.
Key findings:
- The importance of the South Caucasus for Türkiye is underestimated. The region has strong significance for Ankara from both a geopolitical and geoeconomic perspective.
- Türkiye’s policy in the South Caucasus is, and will likely remain, based on its strategic alliance with Azerbaijan and can be articulated as an “Azerbaijan first” policy.
- Azerbaijan–Türkiye ties consist of heavy interdependencies in many fields, from political to social and economic, rather than a “big brother/small brother” dynamic. If land access from Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan—and then directly to Türkiye—via Armenia’s Syunik region is established, Türkiye may lose any incentive to continue normalization and open borders with Armenia.
- Türkiye sees Russia as “an unavoidable evil” that will remain a constant factor in South Caucasus geopolitics, and Ankara aims to manage its relationship with Moscow, establish a Russia–Türkiye condominium, and substantially limit the presence and influence of the US, the EU, and NATO in the region. READ MORE
Publications
India at COP30: A Mismatch Between Grandstanding and Climate Action 
By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
India’s climate policy must demonstrate real achievements vis-à-vis fossil fuels while highlighting modest gains in the realm of green energy.
After attending COP30, the United Nations climate summit at the Brazilian city of Belem, India’s Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav declared on November 30 that the summit was “a significant milestone in advancing equity and climate justice.” He added that India had “achieved all its major goals at the global negotiations and its positions are reflected in all major decisions.” Despite this self-congratulatory message and India’s attempt to anoint itself as the leader of the developing world, New Delhi’s track record remains contradictory. Some impressive achievements sit alongside major loopholes in India’s climate policy and practice. As the Global South struggles to convince the developed world to play its part in climate financing, India has to do more to chart out a clear roadmap for reducing carbon footprints. READ MORE
