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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Monday 8 August 2022

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Context
Publications Iran’s "Game of Drones" in the Middle East

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Amid mounting domestic unrest and ongoing diplomatic standoffs with regional states, Iran has devoted a significant and increasing amount of national resources toward upgrading its national drone program. On May 17, the Iranian government officially inaugurated its first overseas drone factory in Dushanbe, Tajikistan; the facility manufactures the indigenous Ababil-2, a multipurpose drone model with reconnaissance, combat, and suicide capabilities. The Ababil-2 boasts a maximum range of 200 kilometres and can sustain roughly 90 minutes of flight time. The new drone factory will help Iran to improve relations with Tajikistan after a period of lingering diplomatic tension, and General Mohammad Bagheri described its inauguration as a turning point in bilateral military cooperation between the two countries. READ MORE

  • June 23, 2022
Publications Restoring Communication Links is an Important Confidence-building Measure

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

There is broad consensus in the region and in the international community on the need to restore communications in the South Caucasus and on the possibility of finding mutually accepted solutions for this to be achieved. However the constant focus on the routes passing via the Syunik region and connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhijevan has made the whole process of restoration of communications a bone of contention for both sides. The restoration of communications may still play a positive role in the establishment of good neighbourly relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, by creating conditions from which both societies can benefit. However, if the sides continue this tit-for-tat discussion around the "Zangezur corridor," blaming each other for violating previous agreements, the restoration of communications issue will only deepen the mistrust between them, he adds. Starting instead with a railway connection between Armenia and Nakhijevan via Yersakh on the other hand, requires only a further 1 km of railroad to be constructed, and will serve as a significant confidence-building measure between Armenia and Azerbaijan and will make it easier for Armenia and Azerbaijan to agree on the modalities for the restoration of other routes. READ MORE

  • June 23, 2022
News Kaliningrad row: Lithuania accuses Russia of lying about rail 'blockade'

Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte has said Russian claims of a rail blockade of its territorial outpost in Kaliningrad are a lie.

  • June 22, 2022
News Kaliningrad row: 'Sanctions have brought my factory to a standstill'

Igor Pleshkov gives me a tour of his concrete business in Kaliningrad.

  • June 22, 2022
News Europe told to prepare for Russia turning off gas

The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that Russia may stop supplying gas to Europe this winter.

  • June 22, 2022
News Russia's Putin condemns 'mad and thoughtless' Western sanctions

The sanctions imposed by the West on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine are "mad and thoughtless", President Vladimir Putin has said.

  • June 17, 2022
News Ukraine moves one step closer to EU membership

The European Commission has backed Ukraine's bid to be given candidacy status to join the EU - bringing it one step closer to joining the bloc.

  • June 17, 2022
Publications Scenarios for the Future of Nagorno Karabakh

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

In late May 2022, Armenia and Azerbaijan established national commissions for border delimitation and demarcation. The two countries are close to signing a deal on the restoration of communications and will soon launch negotiations on elaborating a bilateral agreement. Currently, experts and societies wonder what these developments mean for the future of the self-proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh Republic. Discussions are underway, and different ideas have been put forward. Some Azerbaijani experts started to circulate the possibility of autonomy for Nagorno Karabakh, hinting that Azerbaijan may change its post-2020 war rhetoric, denying the existence of Nagorno Karabakh and claiming that the issue of status was thrown into the dustbin of history. There is a lack of details on what this autonomy could be. READ MORE

  • June 16, 2022
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