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Geopolitical Challenges: Prospects and Scenarios 2010 - Summary Document (158 Kb)
At the end of December 1999, as the world prepared to usher in a new Millennium, in Europe and other parts of the planet, there was widespread concern that the so called “Millennium Bug” would strike, causing unforeseen disruption and havoc. Ten years on, in December of last year, for many in Europe, the Millennium Bug was just a shade in the memory as a far more ominous concern was pressing home – the prospect of another gas crisis. Although the fact that the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute of January 2009 – and its knock-on effect of leaving much of Europe without natural gas in the peak of winter – did not repeat itself during the record cold European temperatures of January this year, the very fact that European attention has become so focused on this theme demonstrates how geopolitical developments in the European hinterlands have come to impact the day-to-day livelihood of all Europeans
Caspian Security Briefing: Azerbaijan (69 Kb)
The former-Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan has attracted a notable degree of attention amongst the international investor community due to the impressive potential of its hydrocarbons sector. The country’s vast (and still largely untapped) oil and gas fields, located in the strategically important Caspian Sea basin, provide the source for major energy transport arteries such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline. Future energy transport projects of strategic relevance to the European Union...
Risks, Threats and Advisory Briefing: Algeria
A steady stream of terrorist attacks and clashes between authorities and militants has continued to characterise the security landscape in Algeria in the beginning of 2010 and the latter phases of 2009...
North Caucasus Security Outlook
Russia during the Putin (and now Putin-Medvedev) years has, to a good degree, been successful in casting an image of increasing national wealth, external power and domestic stability...
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Political Prognosis
The former-Yugoslav entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina is gripped by deep political crisis at present. Divisions between Serb, Croat and Bosniak (Bosnian Muslims) minorities are deepening inside the country, undermining the work and institutions of government, scuttling any sense of national unity and threatening to plunge Bosnia into the vortex of ethnic conflict...
Uzbekistan foreign policy briefing
1. Human rights.
Turkey: Domestic Security Outlook
Political Risk and Threat Advisory Briefing: Putting Putin’s Russia Strategy into Perspective
In the spring of 2009 Russia remains in the midst of deep recession, as the country seeks to pull itself out of the biggest economic crisis faced since 1998. The political challenge this poses to the current Russian government of Prime Minister and former-President, Vladimir Putin, is substantial...
North African Security Outlook: Trans-national Islamic Extremism in the Maghreb
Ukraine foreign policy briefing