Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 2011

Key Points:

• The TSK mistakenly bombs unarmed Kurdish smugglers near the Iraqi border, adding yet another incident that sets back Turkish-Kurdish relations and possibly fueling further violence.
• Military, economic and political ties are severed between France and NATO ally Turkey following the National Assembly’s vote to move an Armenian genocide bill forward.
• Turkey’s Central Bank sells off over $1 billion in dollars to combat rising inflation, though by month’s end the rate had surpassed 10%.
• Azerbaijan and Turkey agree to a new gas transport and supply deal for the Shah Deniz field, upsetting some in Brussels who feel the new pipeline could undermine the time consuming progress for NABUCCO. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 21.01.2012  |  Published on EGF: 21.01.2012  |  External Relations
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Following the earthquake on October 23, 2011, a second powerful tremor struck eastern Turkey on November 9, killing 40 people including a Japanese rescue worker and two Turkish journalists who were covering the aftermath of the October quake.
The strong quake came on top of a severe cold snap that left much of the province of Van covered in snow, as refugees in the stricken city of Ecris continued to live out of tents. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 02.01.2012  |  Published on EGF: 30.12.2011  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 2011
Key developments:

• Turkey is shaken by the abrupt early retirement of the four highest-ranking military officials in the country just prior to the August meeting of the Supreme Military Council. The generals’ resignations, requesting retirement, are in protest at the continued detention of military officers as part of the “Sledgehammer” coup plot investigation.
  
• The domestic political scene calms as the Republican People’s Party (CHP) ends its parliamentary boycott, although the “independent” Peace and Democratic Party (BDP) delegates continue to refuse to be sworn in.
  
• Despite the fact that over 10,000 Syrians have crossed the border and sought refuge in Turkey, in July Ankara maintained a muted stance towards the Syrian crackdown as no viable alternative to the Assad regime has emerged.
  
• Iran, Syria and Iraq announce the Islamic Gas Pipeline project that will compete with Nabucco, while Turkey and Azerbaijan continue to argue over energy issues that could threaten the progress of the Nabucco gas pipeline
  

• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 12.08.2011  |  Published on EGF: 12.08.2011  |  External Relations
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There is a certain understanding amongst Middle East politics experts that a game breaking event of cataclysmic proportions hits the region once every ten years or so. September of this year will mark the 10th anniversary of the unimaginable acts of terrorism which were perpetrated in New York in September 2001 by Arab suicide bombers.

• Dr. Marat Terterov  |  Date: 18.07.2011  |  Published on EGF: 18.07.2011  |  External Relations
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By Naim Ameur,
Senior Manager, Prime Ministry of Tunisia
EGF Affiliated Expert on Maghreb politics

Tunisia embarks upon the process of transition to democracy

It is now a well established fact amongst both the general public as well as the specialist of Middle Eastern politics that Tunisia under the almost-quarter century long rule of former President, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, was managed by a highly restrictive and rather authoritarian political system. The system empowered key pro-regime political instruments such as the Constitutional Democratic Rally simultaneously to ensuring that opposition political parties remained largely powerless or even being loyal to the regime. Other regime opponents, such as Tunisia’s Islamists, found themselves in exile and for the most part expelled from the country. While this is not surprising, given the dearth of democratic political culture in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), this likewise ensured that the country remained a “political wasteland” under its former president, who created what some local scholars now refer to as “political desertification”. READ MORE

• Naim Ameur  |  Date: 12.07.2011  |  Published on EGF: 11.07.2011  |  External Relations
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Jordan has always been a moderate monarchy and, taking into account the role of the British Empire in the foundation of the Hashemite Kingdom, one of the most pro-Western regimes in the Arab East. Jordan’s well-established relations with Russia, which have become even closer and warmer during the last decade, might therefore seem surprising. However, in the Middle East, perhaps even more than in any geopolitical regions, neither generalizations nor stereotypes are able to reflect complex realities. Moscow and Amman have a number of reasons to preserve and cultivate their cooperation

• Andrej Kreutz  |  Date: 13.07.2010  |  Published on EGF: 13.07.2010  |  External Relations
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Summary of Panel I: The Future of the Energy Charter and the Debate over the Third Package
The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.

• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 14.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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Summary of Panel II: Russia’s Arctic Uncertainty
The discussion in the second panel of the online session, which focused on the future of upstream energy exploration projects in the Russian Arctic, brought out the following messages for European policy makers and was supported by the ensuing extended commentary. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 14.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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Energy Roundtable Summary Document

The EU-Russia energy roundtable discussion held at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) on February 26, 2010, brought together a significant number of well known experts and policy makers engaged in the EU-Russia energy relationship in order to assess some of the challenges which presently exist in this sphere. Some of these challenges are summarised below. The objectives of the seminar organisers were to create an environment in which experts and policy makers could openly and candidly discuss the challenges standing before the EU-Russia energy relationship. The roundtable was also attended by a large number of participants from academia, government, energy companies and the diplomatic community.

• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 17.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 17.05.2010  |  Energy
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• Andrej Kreutz  |  Date: 05.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 05.05.2010  |  External Relations
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