A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: Good news and bad news for Gazprom: sales volumes rising but prices falling in 2015-16; European Commission and Gazprom continue on their dual-track approach to resolving the antimonopoly case; Stalemate over Gazprom’s use of the OPAL pipeline; EU Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy, Miguel Arias Cañete, warns against Nord Stream-II at European Parliament plenary session
• Nord Stream: Gazprom CEO suggests that Nord Stream-II gas could be delivered to south-eastern Europe; Nord Stream-II to enter Baltic Sea at Ust-Luga, not Vyborg; Nord Stream reaches milestone 100 bcm of deliveries, but continues to operate below capacity
• Turkish Stream: Turkish Botaş initiates gas price arbitration against Gazprom as Russia-Turkey relations come under strain
• Ukraine: Naftogaz prepays and resumes imports from Gazprom, without formally signing the ‘Winter Package’ agreement
• Asia: Gazprom launches construction of Amur gas processing plant (GPP) as part of the Power of Siberia project; Gazprom hosts working meetings with Mitsui and Mitsubishi to discuss Sakhalin-II LNG terminal expansion; Gazprom Marketing and Trading Singapore (GM&TS) signs 10-year LNG sale-and-purchase agreement with Singaporean state-owned Pavilion Gas for exports to the Asia-Pacific region
• Other: Gazprom launches construction of second line of Ukhta-Torzhok pipeline

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.11.2015  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
November – December 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Guest Analyst

Key Points:

• Predictions of the AKP’s demise have been greatly exaggerated as the party is swept back into power in the November elections.
• Months of renewed violence between the state, the PKK and terrorist attacks by the Islamic State plunge Turkey into an increasingly dangerous security situation.
• Turkey and Russia relations deteriorate as the former downed an encroaching Russian fighter as it crossed into Turkish air space.
• The Middle East closes the year with no end to the violent upheavals that have roiled the region since the uprisings of the Arab Spring. Yet security and economic necessities appear to be drawing Turkey and Israel closer to an agreement on the renewal of relations following the fallout from the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.11.2015  |  External Relations
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Issue # 76
10/12/2015
Kiev says elections in Donbas should be held after members of illegal armed gangs pass amnesty procedure. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 12.10.2015  |  External Relations
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Issue # 75
10/05/2015
It discussed local elections in Ukraine, immunity for separatist candidates, withdrawal of arms smaller than 100 mm in calibre and control over the border. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 05.10.2015  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
June - October 2015
By Ben McPherson, Principal Editor and Standing Expert on the Black Sea Region

Key Points:

• Surprising 7 June election results have led to extreme political measures, as President Erdoğan forces a do-over in an attempt to get a better result
• The PKK/government ceasefire breaks down, which offers political opportunity for Erdoğan and the AKP but comes at a steep price:
  • The outbreak of violence has killed between 150-500 soldiers and police, and reportedly over 2,000 PKK members
  • Sources differ on whether Erdoğan or the PKK deserve blame for the re-ignition of hostilities, while all parties attempt to use it to their advantage
• The Kurdish HDP and Selahattin Demirtaş walk a tightrope as they try to maintain their place as an accepted political party, while keeping their base of support
• The situation over the border in Syria threatens to overwhelm all plans, as both the US and Russia make recent moves that are taking the conflict out of Erdoğan"s control

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.10.2015  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: Gazprom submits response to EU antitrust ‘statement of objections’, one week after submitting its own proposals in the hope of an out-of-court settlement; Gazprom and Wintershall complete their asset swap; Gazprom and OMV sign preliminary agreement on asset-swap
• Nord Stream: OMV Gazprom signs shareholder agreement with Wintershall, E.ON, ENGIE, OMV and Shell for Nord Stream II
• Turkish Stream: Gazprom proposes reduction of Turkish Stream project to two lines with 32 bcm capacity, with negotiations on hold until after Turkish elections on 1st of November
• Ukraine: Uncertainty reigns for Gazprom and Naftogaz as winter approaches
• Asia: Gazprom continues to promote the expansion of the Sakhalin-II LNG export terminal; US sanctions against the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye gas field – clarification; The significance of US sanctions against the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye gas field; Power of Siberia Eastern Route: back to square one?; Gazprom hopes to sign deal on ‘Western Route’ of Power of Siberia in 2016
• Other: Gazprom Export holds its first auction for gas exports, marking the beginning of ‘spot price’ pipeline exports

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.10.2015  |  External Relations
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Issue # 74
09/28/2015
The president says Ukraine needs systemic reforms to counteract Russia's aggression.
An indefinite campaign to block cargo transport bringing goods to Crimea is under way on Ukraine's administrative border with the peninsula. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 28.09.2015  |  External Relations
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Issue # 73
09/22/2015
Ukraine publishes list of people and companies affected by sanctions.
With the constitutional majority of votes, parliament has voted in favour of restructuring Ukraine's public debt in line with agreements reached with the IMF. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 21.09.2015  |  External Relations
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Issue # 72
09/14/2015
The foreign ministers of the Normandy Four countries, including Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia, met in Berlin on 12 September 2015. According to an Interfax-Ukraine report, all participants in the meeting agreed that it was necessary to reach and implement an agreement on the withdrawal of light and heavy weapons from the line of contact as soon as possible. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 14.09.2015  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: Gazprom-PGNiG gas price talks at ‘an advanced stage’; Gazprom and Eni pledge to continue close cooperation; Calm before the storm: Gazprom Deputy Chairman meets EU Competition Commissioner, with Gazprom due to reply to EU antimonopoly ‘Statement of Objections’ by the 28th of September
• Nord Stream: OMV CEO Seele confident of EU approval for Nord Stream II, meets with Gazprom CEO Miller to discuss joint venture for the project
• Turkish Stream: Stop and go – Russia and Turkey continue trading proposals, but real progress not expected until formation of new Turkish government in November; SE European Foreign Ministers could meet in September to discuss the ‘Tesla’ extension to Turkish Stream
• Ukraine: EU Commissioner for Energy Union meets with Ukrainian Energy Minister and Naftogaz CEO, and plans meeting with Russian Energy Minister in September ahead of next round of trilateral talks; Gazprom CEO expresses concerns over Naftogaz winter gas storage
• Belarus: Gazprom begins construction of Gazprom Centre in Minsk, set to be ‘the tallest building in Belarus’
• Asia: Shell participation in Sakhalin-III in doubt as US imposes sanctions on the project; Gazprom reports ‘good dynamics’ in ongoing negotiations with PetroChina and CNPC over pipeline deliveries of Russian gas to China, despite concerns over the commercial viability of the projects
• Other: Gazprom’s annual gas production could reach record low in 2015, as the company also cuts its sales price forecast

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.09.2015  |  External Relations
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