ISSUE #17
11/05/2010

Many European observers expressed their opinion that local elections in Ukraine did not meet the standards set by the Council of Europe, in particular as to their transparency, fairness and professional conduct. This opinion was expressed namely by the Head of the Delegation of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe Gudrun Mosler-Tornstrom. The European Union (EU) Committee for Regions representative Teet Kallasvee notes that the election proved the weakness of the new law «On Local elections» adopted only three months prior to the elections. High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affaires and Security Policy Catherine Ashton expressed her concern regarding the accounts of violations in the course of voting in Ukraine which undermine people's trust in the electoral process. Similar concerned were also voiced by the European Parliament (EP) Deputy, Co- Chairman of the EU-Ukraine Parliamentary Cooperation Committee Pawel Kowal. He noted that the final report on Ukrainian local elections prepared by the EP observers would focus on the preparations for the elections, their conduct and the vote count. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 10.12.2010  |  External Relations
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Reviewed by Professor Andrej Kreutz

Due to both her theoretical approach and substantial arguments, Helen Belopolski’s monograph differs greatly from many other works, which have been published on the subject of the Russian Federation’s foreign policy.

• Andrej Kreutz  |  Published on EGF: 09.12.2010  |  External Relations
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The results of the NATO summit were as predictable as a Soviet Communist Party congress, with the word "peace" replaced by "war". NATO's embrace of the US agenda of missile defence, nuclear arms, and its new role as global policeman surprised no one. No word about the United Nations or peacekeeping. In deference to Russia, the only mention of eastern expansion was continued "partnerships" with former Soviet republics Ukraine and Georgia. Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand and Japan were also offered special status. The new Strategic Doctrine, replacing the more modest Euro-centric 1999 model, really just reaffirmed US control of the foreign policy of what Zbigniew Brzezinski called its "vassal states."

• Eric Walberg  |  Published on EGF: 27.11.2010  |  External Relations
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November 2010

Key positions:

• David Cameron’s forceful remarks over the summer on Turkey’s stagnant accession talks have hit a nerve in some circles in Brussels. Criticism of fellow German and French members of the EU by the prime minister on bias and playing to xenophobic political moods has addressed the elephant in the room over Turkey’s much debated membership application. Brussels is predicted to endorse the recent referendum results from Turkey as a positive step in its long standing bid to join the EU.

• A Turkish court struck down the headscarf ban in public universities recently, but no major social disturbances have been reported. The lack of social unrest over such a divisive issue seems to further demonstrate that Turkey is enshrining the values of a law based democratic society where sensitive political issues are settled in the courts and at the ballot box rather than in the streets. Meanwhile the Ergenekon trial (Turkey’s new national coup plot) has faded from national attention as the Istanbul prosecutor’s office has declined to pursue the case citing lack of verifiable evidence.

• The Turkish National Petroleum Corporation has recently won two major contracts in developing the two largest Iraqi gas fields, further increasing Turkey’s interests in its neighbour. This has not alleviated some concern in the business sector that warns a ballooning trade deficit over the past year has dire consequences for the long-term future of business growth.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.11.2010  |  Energy
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October 2010

Key Positions

• The 12 September referendum was seen as a vote of confidence for the ruling AKP, with several constitutional changes ratified by majority. However, a large opposition-voting bloc has emerged and appears to highlight the presence of a vibrant democratic atmosphere in the Republic.


• Kurdish-Turkish reconciliation has faltered in recent weeks, with large portions of the country’s Kurdish areas boycotting the 12 September vote.


• Rumours of a Gulenist-AKP split did not deter cooperation between these two leading Turkish political forces in the run up to the vote. However, with criticism of the AKP increasingly evident within Gulenist circles, there are signs that all is not well in the Islamist camp in Turkey. 


• Turkey and Russia’s Gazprom are attempting to negotiate the sharing of burdens and profits from the Samsun-Ceyan oil pipeline with Italy’s ENI. The American ambassador to Turkey has endorsed the Southern Energy Corridor project, but with the caveat that no Iranian gas runs through the Nabucco gas pipeline.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.10.2010  |  External Relations
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So – Keston has existed for 40 years – over half my life – and half of that time (exactly 20 years) I’ve  been living in    Oxford. It’s almost unbelievable to reflect that the Berlin Wall came down just after I came to St Edmund Hall, Oxford, with a visiting fellowship: my temporary absence from Keston College seemed to inaugurate the sensational collapse of communism. READ MORE

• Mikhail Roshchin  |  Published on EGF: 18.10.2010  |  External Relations
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September 2010
John Van Pool
EGF Turkey Geopolitics Analyst

Key positions:

• British Prime Minster David Cameron’s recent speech to the Turkish Parliament, which gave strong support for Ankara’s EU membership bid, is likely to have caused more reaction from European national leaders had it been delivered in Brussels 


• Last month’s agreement between Chevron and Turkish Petroleum to explore two deep-water wells in the Black Sea is a reflection of the Turkish government’s efforts to make the country self sufficient in oil and gas production by 2023 


• Italian energy company ENI has attempted to reach a compromise for its role in the competing Nabucco and South Stream pipelines by reaching an agreement with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan in which compressed natural gas reserves will be transported by ship across the Caspian Sea, which will provide supplies to both pipelines without alienating either project’s backers. 


• Turkey’s National Security Policy Document (also known as the ‘Secret Constitution’), which is due to be reviewed shortly, will identify energy security as the country’s most pressing strategic issue, and will remove Russia, amongst other neighbours, from the countries it would consider as potential enemies. READ MORE

• John Van Pool  |  Published on EGF: 06.09.2010  |  External Relations
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Over the last decade, two energy rings have been forming in the Balkan/Caspian oil and gas pipeline/energy supply route context, first in Turkey and then in Greece. As a result, both countries have been elevated to the role of strategic energy corridor territories, linking the energy-rich Caspian region with Europe. Both Turkey and Greece exhibit vast potential in connecting Caspian supply sources with Western markets, both independently of one another as well as in unison. Taking this into account, the EU and the US in particular have endorsed policies which have privileged Turkey as the main interconnector between Europe and the Caspian in the scramble for European energy security. However, Ankara’s current geopolitical reorientation towards Russia (with whom it has developed a pragmatic, yet strong energy partnership) and the Middle East, along with the several security-political shortcomings that undermine the stability of the Turkish energy grid, might lead toward a rethinking of Western energy policy toward the alternative, emergent Greek (energy) ring. READ MORE

• Marco Pantelakis  |  Published on EGF: 29.08.2010  |  External Relations
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• John Van Pool  |  Published on EGF: 29.08.2010  |  External Relations
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On June 11-12 2010 the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held their annual Summit in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, under the auspices of the (rotational) Uzbek presidency. The previous SCO Summit was held in 2009 in Yekaterinburg, Russia, where the agenda of the member states was dominated by the search for the right exit strategies out of the global economic-financial crisis, particularly those that would serve to minimise its nefarious consequences upon SCO members. In Tashkent, the agenda of SCO member country leaders was dominated by the following issues:

• Enhancement of regional stability and security
• Coordination of the intergovernmental struggle with international terrorism, extremism and separatism
• Contemporary problems relating to the above, including ongoing crisis in Afghanistan (a regional thorn for all of the SCO members) and the fallout of the political-security crisis in Kyrgyzstan
• Coordination of national and intergovernmental efforts to counter organised crime and narco-trafficking. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 29.08.2010  |  External Relations
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