By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Moscow and Beijing are likely to discover that their initial joy over the US withdrawal from Afghanistan may be premature. Afghanistan under the Taliban remains divided, insecure and uncertain about its current and future path. Without stability and security, neither Beijing nor Moscow will provide economic assistance while the international community will continue to shun Afghanistan.
Russia’s Presidential Envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, noted that “The Taliban were easier to negotiate with than the old “puppet government” of the exiled President Ashraf Ghani.” The latter was seen by, and from Moscow, as a puppet of the West and contacts that Russia maintained with Hamid Karzai’s successor were either downgraded or revised. At the same time, contacts between Russia and the Taliban only increased. With the West’s departure, Moscow is seizing up the opportunity indirectly to recognise the authority of the Taliban, which it officially designated as a terrorist organisation back in 2003 though without burning its bridges with the militant group. READ MORE.

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 22.02.2022  |  Security
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By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Since its emergence in the 1980s, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has been a significant source of concern to the state of Turkey. With the escalation of conflict between the Turkish state and the ethnic Kurdish community in the 1990s, the level of violence explicitly increased, and the civilian death toll rose to its highest point. Though the PKK could not ensure absolute authority in large, predominantly Kurdish provinces in the southeast, it gradually shifted to a new strategy —urban violence— to undermine the Turkish state's authority in Kurdish regions.
According to theories of violent resistance, violence is the only practical and productive tool of mass mobilisation of ethnic insurgencies against political systems. In the case of Kurdish nationalism in Turkey, many scholars argue that Turkey's policy of ethnic nationalism has had a decisive role in shaping Kurdish ethnic nationalism throughout these years. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 22.02.2022  |  Security
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By Alan Whitehorn, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada

Without a doubt, Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin is the greatest factor in the risk of war between Russia and Ukraine. Yet paradoxically, Putin is perhaps the best hope for peace in the South Caucasus, at least as far as Azerbaijan and Armenia are concerned. The Georgian situation is, however, another matter. But one should take one step at a time in this exceptionally dangerous and conflict-prone region.
The recent 2020 Karabakh War between Azerbaijan and Armenia was, in effect, a continuation of the bitter 1990s ethno-religious territorial war over Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) that emerged between the two newly independent states in the midst of the break-up of the Soviet Union. The 1990s conflict produced thousands of casualties and hundreds of thousands of displaced civilian ethnic minority refugees. It was a humanitarian catastrophe for families on both sides of the border. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 16.01.2022  |  Security
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

In the past few years, Turkey has been gradually increasing its influence in Ukraine through trade and military cooperation amid escalating tensions between Moscow and Kyiv, challenging Moscow’s standing in the Black Sea region. The strategic cooperation between Ankara and Kyiv is not limited to political statements, but rather encompasses other important fields, such as the economy, security and defence industries. Moreover, relations between the two countries gained further impetus with Russia’s unification of Crimea in 2014 and reached their peak during the administration of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who assumed office in 2019. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 18.12.2021  |  Security
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

The current border tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia are not the first and likely not the last. Given this, a successful border demarcation/delimitation process could be a crucial point in paving the way for a final peace agreement between the two adversaries. Therefore, the resumption of direct peace talks is the only rational option. Last month, shortly after the first anniversary of the 44-day Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, saw a new phase of violent hostilities, and the fighting was far from conventional. Deadly skirmishes occurred on the Azerbaijan–Armenia's international border, in a place named Giziltapa (Tsitserrnakar) near Syunik province. According to the Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan, the tensions flared up due to the Armenian Armed Forces' intensive artillery fires at the positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. In response, the Armenian Ministry of Defence accused the Azerbaijani side of provocation, violating international borders, and spreading disinformation regarding the skirmishes. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 15.12.2021  |  Security
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Policy Recommendations from the 21st workshop of RSSC SG/PfP Consortium

The Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) was proud to resume its activities in a face-to face format in Rome, 7-10 September 2021. On that occasion, the Study Group discussed and subsequently agreed on a number of policy recommendations. The second Karabakh war was the catalyst for massive changes in the South Caucasus. Certainly, the new territorial realities fit better the internationally recognized territories of both countries, but important challenges remain, making it important for the RSSC SG to meet to spur thinking on the way forward. The conflict was also an opportunity for other regional actors. Georgia deployed uncommon diplomacy and peace-making skills in the aftermath of the combat phase between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While Georgia demonstrated its ability at being an effective bridge between the two belligerents, Russia established itself as the essential arbiter and guarantor of a fragile ceasefire, and of purveyor of security for new lines of demarcation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkey has not waited and sided with Azerbaijan in achieving and securing the new territorial realities. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 08.12.2021  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The developments of the last year proved that assessments according to which by taking some 8500 square km of territories in the 2020 Karabakh war, Azerbaijan will be satisfied and an era of peaceful development will be launched for Armenians, were highly exaggerated, and had little semblance to reality.
Since the end of the 2020 Karabakh war, Armenia has faced a new, harsh reality along its borders with Azerbaijan. Some in Armenia hoped that after taking back most of the territories which Baku lost during the first Karabakh war of 1992-1994, an era of regional peace would start in the South Caucasus, while Azerbaijan would agree to continue negotiations to fix the status of Nagorno Karabakh within its 1988 borders. Baku was quite quick to dampen such perceptions. Azerbaijan established an economic region of Karabakh in July 2021 and started to aggressively push forward the narrative that war had ended not only the conflict, but Nagorno Karabakh itself, and thus it was senseless to negotiate over the status of a non-existing entity. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 24.11.2021  |  Security
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By G.R. Malikova, Doctor of Legal Sciences, Professor at The Academy of the General Prosecutor’s Office of the Republic of Uzbekistan

The rule of law is ensured in a democratic society through a fair, impartial and effective administration of justice. This type of administration of justice requires independent and impartial judges and prosecutors who ensure the preservation of individual rights and freedoms as well as the maintenance of public order. Regardless of how different prosecutors’ systems are in different countries, they all have one element in common. Prosecutors must make decisions independently and carry out their responsibilities free of outside pressure or intervention, while adhering to the principles of separation of powers and accountability. As the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Sh. Mirziyoyev rightly noted: “Our people can endure any difficulties, but they will not tolerate injustice”. In this regard, the essence of the mission for prosecutors is to ensure social justice and the rule of law. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 04.11.2021  |  Security
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By Embassy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the Kingdom of Belgium

Today, the volunteer movement is an integral part of the social sphere, which provides gratuitous assistance to people in difficult life situations. Uzbekistan is at the stage of active reforms. Large-scale transformations open new opportunities for solving actual socio-economic, socio-political, cultural, and humanitarian problems. One of the priority directions of development of Uzbekistan, in addition to improving state and social construction, ensuring the rule of law, and reforming the judicial and legal system, developing and liberalizing the economy, ensuring security, interethnic harmony and religious tolerance, implementing a balanced, mutually beneficial and constructive foreign policy, is the development of the social sphere. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 25.10.2021  |  Security
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By Doniyor Turaev, Deputy Director of the Legislation and Parliamentary Research Institute under the Oliy Majlis of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Currently, systematic work is under way in Uzbekistan to implement the provisions of the Convention on the Rights of the Children, the legal and institutional framework for protecting the rights and interests of children is improving. As the international experience shows, today, more than twenty countries have a specialized and independent institution – the Ombudsman for Children. The first office of Ombudsman for Children was established in Norway in 1981. By the beginning of the 21st century, many countries had significantly intensified their work to protect the rights of the child and create some special authorized institutions in this area, and this was due to the need to better ensure the implementation of obligations under the Convention on the Rights of the Child. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 25.10.2021  |  Security
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