By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

There should be realistic expectations of what can result from ongoing discussions on the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Turkey. Given the current situation in the South Caucasus, the region is far away from peace, and no one should have hopes that Armenia – Turkey normalization will solve conflicts and bring an era of peace to the region. However, in the current situation, even a contribution to regional stability is too significant an opportunity to miss.
The 2020 Karabakh war has significantly changed the geopolitics of the South Caucasus and triggered new processes. Turkey’s war involvement seemed to worsen further Armenia – Turkey relations. The Armenian government imposed a ban on imports from Turkey from January 2021 due to Turkey's open and evident promotion and support for the Azerbaijani war effort. However, after the early parliamentary elections in Armenia held in June 2021, Armenian officials started to speak about the necessity to normalize relations with Turkey. These discussions ended with the assignment of a special representatives to start negotiations, and the first meeting took place on January 14, 2022. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 21.07.2022  |  External Relations
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By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

With the unprovoked military intervention in Ukraine, Russia has been isolated economically and politically due to the Western-imposed sanctions. But while the sanctions banned Russia from trading with the Western states, particularly in the energy field, some nations still prefer to maintain trade relations with Moscow. Countries like Iran, China and India are seeking to strengthen trade turnover by pushing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project for a better connection via a multimodal transport network that spans rail, road, and sea. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 14.07.2022  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The election of Joe Biden as president in November 2020 raised hopes among the international community that the United States will restore the nuclear deal signed in 2015. Many architects of the deal returned to positions in the White House and State Department. The other signatories of the deal, including the three EU states, China and Russia, were ready to contribute to the restoration of the deal. Conventional wisdom said that Iran should be interested in restoring the deal, too. The economic downturn triggered by the re-imposition of the US sanctions created significant challenges for the Iranian government. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 06.07.2022  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Since the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022, discussions have been underway about the impact of the war on the evolving global order. The transformation of the world order is a very complicated and multi-layered process, and history tells us that it takes decades and is often accompanied by bloody conflicts between great powers. In the last decade, there were several prevailing predictions of the world order – a new bipolar world dominated by the US and China, a multipolar world with several equal players such as the US, China, Russia, India and the EU, and a nonpolar world characterized by constant conflicts and instability. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 01.07.2022  |  External Relations
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By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Even though Israel and Turkey normalised relations in June 2016 following the May 2010 Mavi Marmara Flotilla incident when Israeli soldiers killed ten people on board a Turkish vessel and the subsequent diplomatic rupture, Ankara’s support of the Hamas movement situated in the Gaza Strip continues to undermine bilateral relations.
The establishment of an official office in Istanbul in 2012 and its members are perceived as a thorn in the eye by the Israeli Government. Tel Aviv would like Erdoğan to close the Hamas office and expel its members from Turkey; however, this Israeli wish is not going to be granted any time soon since Erdoğan’s words do not translate into deeds. The signature of the Abraham Accords highlighted two divergent trends in the region: Turkey’s continued isolation and Israel’s strengthened position. This resulted in Erdoğan’s intention to improve relations with Israel. READ MORE.

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 23.06.2022  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

There is broad consensus in the region and in the international community on the need to restore communications in the South Caucasus and on the possibility of finding mutually accepted solutions for this to be achieved. However the constant focus on the routes passing via the Syunik region and connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhijevan has made the whole process of restoration of communications a bone of contention for both sides. The restoration of communications may still play a positive role in the establishment of good neighbourly relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, by creating conditions from which both societies can benefit. However, if the sides continue this tit-for-tat discussion around the "Zangezur corridor," blaming each other for violating previous agreements, the restoration of communications issue will only deepen the mistrust between them, he adds. Starting instead with a railway connection between Armenia and Nakhijevan via Yersakh on the other hand, requires only a further 1 km of railroad to be constructed, and will serve as a significant confidence-building measure between Armenia and Azerbaijan and will make it easier for Armenia and Azerbaijan to agree on the modalities for the restoration of other routes. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 23.06.2022  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

Despite Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s adherence to the ideology of pan-Turkism, the former-Soviet republic has long managed to successfully balance its relations between Russia, Turkey, and the west. However, the ‘frozen conflict’ with Armenia over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory, and the on-going conflict in Ukraine, have recently tested the limits of this balancing act. In January 2022, as Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s border was in full swing, Aliyev visited his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and reaffirmed Baku’s support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Then, the following month – just two days before Russia announced its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine – Aliyev was in Moscow signing a treaty of alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 16.06.2022  |  External Relations
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By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Tensions between Turkey and Iran were recently rekindled by the latter constructing a dam over transboundary waterways, namely the Aras, Tigris, and Euphrates rivers. Iran is accusing Turkey of intentionally triggering a regional drought and water shortage –– both of which have impacted Iran brutally. Ankara says Iran’s claims are a diversion.

A new round of disagreements between Iran and Turkey began when Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian criticized Turkey’s dam projects on the Aras and Tigris rivers –– the main transboundary waterways in the region –– citing the threats to water flow in the area and environmental damage to regional states in his speech before Iran’s Parliament on May 10. Abdollahian said he has called on “his Turkish counterpart at least three times over the past months to pay serious attention to the construction of dams on the Aras River.” READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 09.06.2022  |  External Relations
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By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Russian-Turkish relations are in large part based on the personal chemistry, affinity, and trust between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put these personal ties to the test. While President Erdoğan also maintains a close working relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Turkish-Ukrainian military ties are strong, it has become clear that Erdoğan is not willing to sacrifice relations with Putin for Zelenskyy’s sake. Moreover, Erdoğan’s efforts to mediate between the two leaders have been either rebuffed or ignored by Putin. As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, where things go from here is far from certain, but it is worth considering the range of possibilities. READ MORE.

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 01.06.2022  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

In recent months, Iran has engaged in active foreign policy in the South Caucasus to push its geo-economic interests forward. Meanwhile, Western-led economic sanctions have pushed Russia to realize the significance of the North-South trade route. Iran defused and refreshed its relations with Azerbaijan and by engaging with Armenia it decreased Baku’s political pressure on Yerevan. The following analysis will highlight the recent events and the role Armenia and Azerbaijan play in Iran’s regional trade and economic interests. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 01.06.2022  |  External Relations
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