Opinion on Geostrategic Implications of BREXIT
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
The United Kingdom (UK) is leaving the European Union (EU) on January 31, 2020. This move will not only have tremendous geostrategic implications for the UK and EU but possibly may influence the transformation of the Post-Cold War order. First of all, for the first time in at least the recent 400 hundred years, the UK is abandoning its status of the "first-tier country" and most probably, will never return to the elite club. Without the UK, the struggle between continental Europe and the Ocean powers (US and UK), may reemerge again. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 03.02.2020
| Security
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How the EU Could Help Re-energize Peace Processes in the Eastern Partnership
By Elkhan Nuriyev, Humboldt Senior Fellow, Centre for East European and International Studies
Almost three decades on from the fall of communism, the European Union’s Eastern neighborhood remains embroiled in protracted conflicts that have hampered regional integration, bred mistrust, and encouraged wasteful military spending. This is mainly because the leaders of the Eastern Partnership countries—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—lack flexible reconciliation strategies that may help build peace and foster political stability and economic prosperity.
Complex lingering conflicts have made the European Union’s Eastern partners the objects of a damaging geopolitical tussle between Russia and the EU.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 03.02.2020
| Security
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Madrid Principles and Elements Need New Update
By Benyamin Poghosyan, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies, Yerevan
Since the start of the negotiations for the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict all options suggested by the mediators have envisaged the return of some territories under the control of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, till now, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have managed to avoid such a scenario. However, this didn’t always happen for reasons under Armenian leaders’ control. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 24.12.2019
| Security
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Armenia and Azerbaijan: What’s Next After Bratislava?
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
On December 4, 2019, Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers held their last meeting for this year on the margins of the OSCE Ministerial Conference in Bratislava. According to Armenian and Azerbaijani sources, the current stage of negotiations, the necessity of ceasefire consolidation and the implementation of confidence-building measures were among the key topics of discussion. The Foreign Minister of Armenia highlighted the modest achievement reached within the framework of the agreement on preparing the populations for peace, through the implementation of an exchange program for media representatives from Armenia, Artsakh and Azerbaijan. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 10.12.2019
| Security
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Turkey-NATO Relations: Strained and Constrained By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
Turkey-NATO relations have a history of challenges more or less since Turkey’s accession to NATO in 1952. Strained relations between Turkey and NATO have begun long before Turkey’s alleged failed coup attempt on 15 July 2016. However, the failed coup attempt increased tensions further and it is fair to assume that these tense relations are likely to continue. At the same time, Turkey-NATO relations are constrained by a not yet amended North Atlantic Treaty of 4 April 1949. As long as the treaty remains not updated very little can be done to change the nature of Turkey-NATO relations. READ MORE.
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 20.11.2019
| Security
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Turkey’s Incursion into Syria: What Lessons Should Armenia Take?
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The eight and half years of Syrian conflict saw various, sometimes very strange, ups and downs. Everything started as an uprising against the authoritarian state with demands for democratic reforms. Later the situation transformed into civil war with growing influence of foreign fighters. In 2014, the Islamic State entered the stage making President Assad less evil for the West. Then Russia intervened militarily and changed the course of the war effectively saving Assad. In 2016 and 2018 Turkey launched two military operations taking under control parts of North-Western Syria. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 28.10.2019
| Security
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On Karabakh the Focus should Be on Confidence-Building Measures
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The Karabakh conflict settlement process continues to interest regional security pundits. Yet, despite the growing optimism after the "Velvet revolution" in Armenia, in recent months, the prevailing mood has been more pessimistic. The two meetings between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the beginning of 2019, and negotiations at the level of the foreign ministers, did not result in any breakthrough. The significant decrease in the number of incidents along the line of contact and on the Armenia-Azerbaijan international border since October 2018 is a positive step, although one can also see recent increases in clashes resulting in casualties on both sides. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 16.10.2019
| Security
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Gulf Tensions May Spill Over into the Caucasus
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The September 14th attacks against Saudi Arabia's oil facilities have dangerously increased tensions in the Middle East. Regardless of the author of these actions - the Houthi rebels from Yemen or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps using Iraqi or Iranian territories - a clear message was sent to the Gulf monarchies and the US: Iran on its own or through its proxy forces is capable of inflicting serious damage to the Gulf States’ vital interests, and the "maximum economic pressure" campaign led by the US since May 2018 has as yet failed to change Iranian regional policy. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 01.10.2019
| Security
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Pashinyan's New Tactic: 'Tougher in Public, Softer at the Negotiation Table'
By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku
The next meeting between the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Armenia and Azerbaijan will be held in the upcoming days, most likely during the UN General Assembly in New York. This is the first meeting following Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's "Unification" speech on 5 August in Nagorno-Karabakh, which contained an unprecedented hardline rhetoric, hurting both 'Track1' and 'Track2' processes, which shocked Baku. Following the speech, Azerbaijani officials called for a reaction from the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 24.09.2019
| Security
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NATO’s Strategy Towards the Black Sea Region
By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
Although the pursuit of compromises and negotiations with Russia are an unwritten rule for countries such as Bulgaria and Turkey, such pursuits damage NATO as a whole. Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey remind us of the famous fable ‘Swan, Pike and Crawfish’- by Ivan Krylov: “When partners can’t agree their dealings come to a naught and trouble is their labor’s only fruit,” while Russia is joyfully rubbing its hands and laughing behind NATO’s back. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 09.09.2019
| Security
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