By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The South Caucasus is facing multiple security challenges with no clear path to overcome them in the foreseeable future. The conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are hampering any efforts to have an inclusive regional cooperation, and are the key reasons for the strained Russia - Georgia relations and absence of relations between Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, there are no immediately apparent ways to move towards the settlement of these conflicts. Russia deployed military bases in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and demanded from Georgia to accept the geopolitical facts on the ground. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 09.05.2018  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The April 14 US, UK and France joint strikes in Syria and the heated debates in the UN Security Council just before and after the military action once more emphasized the growing disagreements between Russia and the Western powers on Syria. However, the targeted and limited military strikes have no ability to alter the course of the conflict. Since the launch of the Russian military operation in September 2015, Syrian government forces, with the active support of Russian and Iranian units, have made tangible successes, including the establishment of full control over Aleppo and pushing back rebel groups from the suburbs of Damascus. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2018  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

On April 11, the incumbent President of Azerbaijan lham Aliyev was re-elected for his fourth term in office. Despite a boycott by the Azerbaijani opposition, as well as a tough assessment on elections from western observers, very few doubt that Aliyev will continue to rule in Azerbaijan. On April 9, Armenia finalized its transformation from semi-presidential system of government to a parliamentary one. The Parliament elected a new President - former Armenian ambassador in the UK Armen Sarkissian. His role defined by the new constitution is purely ceremonial. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 27.04.2018  |  Security
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By Fuad Sahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Armenia’s dependence on Russia makes it a pivotal foothold of Moscow in the South Caucasus, as the only host country of a Russian military base in the region, as well as a member in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). While the growing arms race in the region and the recent escalation of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh increased the vulnerability of Armenia, Russia seems to have reinforced its ability to ensure full control over Armenia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 11.04.2018  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

US attempts to change the provisions of the nuclear deal with Iran will intensify over the next months, but things are only likely to come to a head in 2019.
Since the election of President Trump, US-Iran relations have deteriorated significantly. The new US administration has ratcheted up pressure against Tehran threatening to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal, also known as JCPOA. The key members of President Trump national security team have accused Iran of supporting terrorism, sowing chaos in the Middle East, and creating a vast network of non-state actors vehemently countering US interests in the region. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 04.04.2018  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the number one national security priority for Armenia. Armenia guarantees the security of the people of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic, having supported Karabakh during the 1992–94 war with Azerbaijan and through the years of cease-fire. Since 1994, Armenia has been involved in negotiation process in order to resolve the conflict with Azerbaijan. In recent years talks focused on the so-called Madrid Principles prepared by international mediators. Armenia accepted these principles as a basis for settlement and expressed willingness to sign a framework agreement during the summit in Kazan, Russia in 2011. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 27.03.2018  |  Security
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By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

The Black Sea region is one of the regions in which Turkey has lost its influence to Russia. NATO and the EU have no influence on relations between Russia and Turkey, as NATO has no mechanism for excluding Turkey as a member state, while the EU, although it has implicitly suspended negotiations on Turkey's possible membership, it is not prepared to make a clear statement that Turkey will not join the Union in the foreseeable future. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |   |  Security
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By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Most international analysts agree that Western relations with Russia are at their worst in thirty years, and that they are unlikely to improve unless significant geopolitical changes are going to emerge. More recently, a new academic debate has started on whether, and how, to restore the EU-Russia dialogue to meet the interests of both parties, while trying to reconcile respect for international law with principled pragmatism into creating a new European security architecture. It might be therefore worth looking at the prospects of restoring EU-Russia dialogue through the lens of security scenario planning. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 09.02.2018  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The Afrin events are being used to assert the notion that without Russian military guarantees, and a Russian military base deployed in Armenia, Yerevan will be under a constant threat from a potential Turkish offensive.
Turkey's military operation in Afrin proved once more that in the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East nothing can be excluded. Obviously, Turkey had made its own calculations when it launched the offensive, and the muted reaction of the main players of the region can be perceived as a proof that some preliminary discussions had taken place before the start of the operation. The nonlinear relations between powers involved in the Middle East makes it really complicated to understand what lies beneath the surface in terms of motives and assessments. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 02.02.2018  |  Security
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By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

The declaration that Russia and Iran are strategic partners lacks both solid foundation and strategic perspective. Despite the sense of urgency generated by regional and global concerns, Russia and Iran have failed to establish broad-based economic, scientific, technical, educational and societal ties. In terms of arms exports, Russia still sees Iran as a customer, while Iran is doing its best to distance itself from Russia and to become self-reliant; Iran has recently turned to China in order to diversify its weapons imports away from Russia. Whether this divergence will continue remains to be seen. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 09.01.2018  |  Security
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