EGF Information Partner, Instituto Italiano Di Studi Strategici held its first Strategic Forum, "Arab Spring: Emerging Implication" on 13 Dec 2011 in Rome. Click here to read the Summary Report of this event. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.01.2012  |  Security
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Executive Summary
On Monday, May 16, 2011, The European Geopolitical Forum staged a roundtable discussion on the “Changing Dynamics of the Wider Black Sea in Regional Security and External Relations” at the Brussels School of International Studies, University of Kent. The roundtable featured key international speakers: Dr. Andrej Kreutz (Canada), renowned international relations specialist and author of the recent book, “Russia in the Middle East: Friend or Foe?”; and Igor Muradyan (Armenia), an acclaimed public commentator on the geopolitics and geo-economics of the Black Sea-Caucasus-Caspian area. The roundtable discussion also drew participation of officials from the Turkish Embassy in Belgium, NATO International Staff Political Affairs and Security Policy Division (IS PASP), the Mission of Ukraine to European Union, the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to NATO, the Energy Charter Secretariat, TUSIAD, the Armenian Federation of Europe, the Centre for East European and Asian Studies (Romania) and several other interested stakeholders. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.11.2011  |  Security
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by Mehmet Ogutcu,
Expert in global energy security matters

The Turkish leadership has committed itself to a tough position on Israel, Cyprus and Syria, and any backtracking or sign of weakness will seriously affect its credibility at home, with regional partners, the “Arab Street” and other major global powers, as well as high stakes involved in the Eastern Mediterranean. This represents a policy of principle, consistent with the values and goals the government pursues, but is also a risky one, which if not well managed may lead to some undesirable hot confrontation. The power comes with responsibility if it will be effectively harnessed.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 05.10.2011  |  Security
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In the wake of the “Arab Spring,” Algeria causes concerns as its less than democratic past faces the region’s democratic revolutions. Some eight months after the start of the unexpected uprisings in the region, however, Algeria remains relatively stable. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.10.2011  |  Security
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by Marat Terterov,
EGF Director

When a game breaking event takes place in the Middle East once each decade

There is a certain understanding amongst Middle East politics experts that a game breaking event of cataclysmic proportions hits the region once every ten years or so. September of this year will mark the 10^th anniversary of the unimaginable acts of terrorism which were perpetrated in New York in September 2001 by Arab suicide bombers.  These acts of violence catapulted America’s ‘War on Terror’ to the centre of Washington’s foreign policy agenda, opening the way for renewed civil war in Afghanistan and the US-led invasion of Iraq of 2003. READ MORE

• Marat Terterov  |  Published on EGF: 15.09.2011  |  Security
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Turkey's 17th general election was never an election about who would win; it was a foregone conclusion that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) would do that and that Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in his final term as the prime minister, would be given not only the mandate to govern but also the moral authority to forge Turkey’s future in the next four years and, arguably, beyond. READ MORE

• By Mehmet Ogutcu, Formely Turkish Diplomat, Head of OECD Global Forum and currently Multinational Executive and Sir David Logan, Former UK Ambassador to Turkey and Chairman of British Institute in Ankara  |  Published on EGF: 21.07.2011  |  Security
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Like all revolutionary movements, the Arab Awakening burst upon the world in early 2011 both with breathtaking suddenness and as an overdue response to long-neglected societal tensions. Almost overnight, authoritarian leaders were swept from power on a wave of mass - but notably peaceful - demonstrations calling for change. READ MORE

• Huseyn Gun  |  Published on EGF: 18.07.2011  |  Security
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A wide strip of mainland and continental shelf territory starting from the Rus- sian sector of the Arctic up to the Arabian Peninsula can be labelled an Arctic - Arabian hydrocarbon belt (CH-belt) of Eurasia. It is the strip where the major mainland oil and gas fields are located on the territory of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula countries. As the production of hydrocarbons has been developing, transport routes to the markets of their consumption, the major of which is the European Union, started to branch off this diagonal CH-belt of Eurasia in the latitudinal direction. Practically, these transport routes connect the area of production (upstream) with the consumption market (downstream).

• Mykhailo Gonchar, Alexander Duleba, Oleksandr Malynovskyi  |  Published on EGF: 27.06.2011  |  Energy
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Morocco’s stable security image shattered in April
Morocco witnessed a severe blow to its external image as one of the more stable and least dangerous North African Maghreb countries at the end of last month, when an apparent suicide bombing in the city of Marrakesh led to the deaths of 17 persons, including a number of foreign nationals. The fatal blast, which took place in a café in Marrakesh’s iconic Djemaa el-Fna square (a Unesco World Heritage site popular with European tourists) on April 28, was the first major, apparent act of terrorism in the country since the 2003 bombings in Casablanca which killed up to 45 people. READ MORE

• Marco Pantelakis and Mhamed Biygautane  |  Published on EGF: 16.05.2011  |  Security
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By Eugen Iladi, Independent Expert

The dramatic events in Tunisia and Egypt, where long-serving presidents have been ousted within weeks of each other by “street-led people’s revolts”, are inspiring demonstrators in other Muslim countries to demand structural political change. Libya is currently gripped by deep political crisis, as is the tiny Gulf Monarchy of Bahrain, whilst revolts are ongoing in Yemen, Morocco and Iran. Furthermore, Algeria seems to be one of the next countries possibly hanging in the balance, where the prospect of regime change must now be a question of serious concern.
Algeria is a country of vital importance both to the stability of the wider-Maghreb and Sahel-Sahara region as well as to European interests. The country is a major energy supplier to international markets. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national oil and gas champion is crucial to the country's ability to generate public revenues and any disruption would simply lead to more strife in the country. Sonatrach and Algerian oil and gas resources are important not just to Algeria: the European Union's security of energy supplies, U.S. energy interests, as well as Russia's energy investments all stand to suffer if Algeria becomes unreliable. Add to that fears of an Islamist resurgence in the country and, worse, the existing Al Qaeda threat in the Maghreb, and we are witnessing a very volatile concoction in a region not far removed from civil war and unresolved border disputes. READ MORE

• Eugen Iladi  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Security
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