The Western Confrontation with Russia: Scenario Planning in the Area from the Baltic Sea to the Wider Black Sea
by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum
Over the last few years, the confrontation between Russia and the West has made the headlines of plenty of academic and media analysis. Not surprisingly, the countries in-between located at the epi-center of this confrontation have been struggling to re-balance their positions against Washington, Brussels, and Moscow. What scenarios would most accurately outline the future of this confrontation in the geopolitical area between the Baltic Sea and the Wider Black Sea? READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 10.10.2017
| External Relations
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Kurdish referendum has wide regional implications
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The 25 September referendum in the Kurdish region may not lead to Kurdish independence any time soon, but neighbouring countries are apprehensive.
On September 25, 2017 the long-anticipated independence referendum took place in the region administered by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and other mainly Kurdish populated disputed areas of Iraq. Those areas are outside of KRG administered boundaries defined by the Iraqi constitution, but currently are under control of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters. According to preliminary official results voting turnout was 72 percent and approximately 93 percent of participants voted for independence. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 02.10.2017
| External Relations
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Relations with China may help Armenia reduce its dependence on Russia
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
China's growing involvement in the South Caucasus may provide Armenia a much needed flexibility in its foreign policy.
On August 9, 2017 work started on the construction of China's new Embassy building in Yerevan. Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, Yerevan's Mayor Taron Markarian, and visiting Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Li Huilai participated in the ground-breaking ceremony of the 40,000-square-meter embassy compound that should be completed by the end of 2019. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
| External Relations
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Armenia's Russian Hug
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Russia effectively uses the complicated geopolitical situation of Armenia to strengthen its grip on Yerevan, and uses its alliance with Armenia as an efficient tool to further its position in the South Caucasus.
Alliance with Russia is the cornerstone of Armenian foreign and security policy. Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Russia-led military block comprising six former Soviet republics. A Russian military base is deployed in Armenia, and will be there at least until 2044. Armenia has a joint air defense system with Russia, and in 2016 the two countries formed a joint military force. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
| External Relations
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Is a new U-turn possible in Armenia-EU relations?
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Chances that Armenia will change its mind again about its relations with the EU are low, but this can still happen if Russia's relations with the west deteriorate further.
On March 21, 2017, Armenia and the EU initialed a new Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. This achievement was perceived as a critical step forward in fostering bilateral relations following a period of bitter disappointment in both Brussels and among the pro-European Armenians after the abrupt decision by Armenia, in September 2013, to withdraw from its negotiated Association Agreement with the EU, while choosing to join instead the Russia led Eurasian Economic Union - EAEU. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 04.07.2017
| External Relations
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Fall-out from Trump's Middle East Policy in the South Caucasus?
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Trump's hard line approach towards Iran may derail ambitious plans to develop North-South trade and transport corridors in the South Caucasus.
On May 20, 2017, US President Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on his first stop of his week-long international trip. The new US President chose the Saudi visit as a focal point for presenting key pillars of his Middle East policy. Delivering a speech to the Arab - Islamic - American Summit, President Trump stressed the significance of the fight against terrorism and the important role regional states have to play in that struggle. Another key point of his speech was tough criticism directed against Iran. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 07.06.2017
| External Relations
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China's "Belt and Road" Initiative: Game Changer for the South Caucasus
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
On 14-15 May 2017, 29 world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan, gathered in Beijing for the international forum of the "Belt and Road" initiative. The Forum was the biggest event since the launch of the 'One belt one Road' initiative put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. China invited countries and regions to jointly build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road with at least five routes of economic cooperation. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 22.05.2017
| External Relations
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Iran-Russia Relations in the South Caucasus
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Russia and Iran for the moment have shared interest in containing western and Turkish influence in the South Caucasus. In the longer term, however, their relationship in the region is likely to become more competitive than cooperative. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 21.04.2017
| External Relations
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Is US–Russia Rapprochement Still Possible?
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The perspectives of the US – Russia relations under the Trump Administration is one of the key foreign policy issues hotly debated in political and expert circles both in the US, Russia and elsewhere. The steep deterioration of bilateral relations since the start of the third Presidential term of Vladimir Putin brought back into the scene almost forgotten terminology of “Cold War”, “containment”, “great power rivalry”. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 12.04.2017
| External Relations
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The EU May Play Vital Role in Transforming Armenia
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
On March 21, 2017 Armenia and the EU initialed a new bilateral Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. This is an important milestone in bilateral relations, especially taking into account Armenia's last minute withdrawal in 2013 from initialing its Association Agreement negotiated within the framework of the EU Eastern Partnership program. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 12.04.2017
| External Relations
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