Oil Market Collapse Damages the Iraqi Economy
By Ahmed Mousa Jiyad, Development Consultancy & Research, Norway
The collapse of the global oil market is undoubtedly unprecedented in its timing, magnitude, spread and devastating impacts across the globe. A strange and unpredicted association of a few, but major, factors had contributed to the current threat, causing much uncertainty and vulnerability on national and global levels. The revised "OPEC+" production cut agreed on 12 April prompted initial minor improvement in oil price, but there remains very many serious concerns that such reduction is much below what is needed to bring stability to and balances a saturated global oil market. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 15.04.2020
| Markets
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Will Armenia Withstand the Global Economic Turmoil?
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
The world economy has been in troubled waters since late 2018. The US – China trade war rattled the markets and triggered the significant changes in global supply chains. Many industrial giants were actively discussing the dislocation of production facilities from China to South East Asia nations such as Vietnam and Cambodia seeking to decrease the negative impact of the trade war.[…] However, the novel Coronavirus (COVID – 19) outbreak, which started in Chinese Wuhan city, has launched its seemingly unstoppable march around the globe since late January 2020. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 26.03.2020
| Markets
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New Russian Embargo - Collapse for Georgian Economy or Historic Chance?
By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi
By Putin's order, flights to Georgia from Russia will be prohibited from July 8. Based on past experience, it can be mentioned, that this step from the official Kremlin may not be a catastrophe for Georgia and on the contrary, to be a chance for the better future. The opening of the Russian market during the last several years and the partial settlement of relations with Russia was considered as a means of growth of Georgia's economy, but the developments since 2013 have proved contradictory.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 12.07.2019
| Markets
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Ukrainian Gas Transit: Still Vital for Russian Gas Supplies to Europe
By Jack Sharples, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas
With European gas import demand having risen substantially since 2014, Gazprom has dramatically increased its sales on the European market. In Q1 2018, Gazprom reported record daily gas exports to Europe in late February and early March. This Comment addresses the question of how those volumes were delivered to the market, and the extent to which the infrastructure for delivery of those volumes was used, highlighting that, in times of peak European gas import demand, full utilisation of the Nord Stream and Yamal-Europe pipelines left Ukraine as the only transit route with spare capacity. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 16.05.2018
| Markets
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Status Report: The Ukrainian Navy By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
Undoubtedly, the Russian annexation of Crimea in March 2014 caused serious damage to the Ukrainian Naval Forces. About 70 per cent of the fleet has been lost and what remained is in poor shape and in need of repairs.
The resulting conflict in the Eastern part of Ukraine drew attention, energy and resources away from the difficult state of the Ukrainian Navy towards the urgent needs of the army and air force. The perilous state of the economy has further decreased financial support for the Navy’s needs. In addition, a debate on the conceptual vision of the Navy divided the expert community and top naval personnel for about 15 months. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 27.04.2018
| Markets
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The Other Side of Conflict Resolution: Mobilizing Peace Constituencies in the South Caucasus
By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert
The international community has so far paid little attention to the South Caucasus where the conflict resolution process is stuck in political limbo for years. This apparent neglect and the lack of understanding of the deep-rooted issues have created an informational landscape where fake news stories harm the ordinary people and violate their fundamental right to make informed choices on the basis of accurate information that is free of deception and manipulation. In effect, the current climate of disinformation aggravates regional tensions and makes incumbent authorities vulnerable to instability. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 27.03.2018
| Markets
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Armenia caught in a peculiar transit trap
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The South Caucasus is facing an infrastructure development boom. However, Armenia is in stark isolation, with no major project passing through the country.
The launch of new transit routes and transport infrastructure are key topics widely discussed within the context of the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Since the late 1990s several new pipelines, highways and railroads have been constructed traversing the region. Given the re-emergence of Russia as a key player in the post-Soviet space, since President Putin's ascendance to power in 2000, new transport corridors and large infrastructure projects have become factors in the wider competition between Russia and western countries. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 19.02.2018
| Markets
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New transport corridors in Eurasia leave Armenia with a dilemma
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Armenia should take additional steps to overcome its regional isolation and boost its economic cooperation with the outside world, otherwise in the long-term it would be more and more difficult for it to counter Azerbaijani and Turkish pressure.
On October 30, 2017 an opening ceremony for the newly constructed Baku - Tbilisi - Kars railway link was held in Baku. The Presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as the Prime Ministers of Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and representatives of Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, participated in the ceremony. The BTK was hailed as one of the shortest routes connecting Asia with Europe, with clear eye for it to be included in China's "One Belt - One Road" project. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 08.11.2017
| Markets
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Russian Defence Industry in the Era of Putin
By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
There is a preconceived and very inaccurate perception in the West at large that the Russian Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) has and will continue to have difficulties in the coming years because Russia faces domestic economic challenges caused by the low price of oil, continuing economic sanctions imposed by the EU and the US and the breakdown of defence industrial relations with Ukraine.
There is very little understanding in the West that for President Vladimir Putin the issue of rearmament and well-functioning of the MIC are of crucial importance, and that the Russian president is not ready to give up an inch in tenaciously pursuing this ambitious items on his domestic agenda. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 14.09.2017
| Markets
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The South-West Transport Corridor Project and the Geopolitical Reshaping of the South Caucasus
By Fuad Shahbazov, Expert-advisor, Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Azerbaijan Republic
Baku hosted the first joint gathering of the heads of the railway administrations of Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine and Poland, on June 19. The meeting was dedicated to the newly-launched “South-West Transport Corridor,” which links into the broader Trans-Caspian International Route project launched in 2016. READ MORE