Within the framework of the IMEMO’s Oil and Gas Dialog Forum BP's chief economist Christof Rühl presented BP Energy Outlook 2030 to the audience of the Russian academics It was stressed that the outlook’s ‘base case’ reflects a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ assessment of the world’s likely path from today’s vantage point, drawing on expertise both within and outside the company. The outlook highlights the growing role of developing economies in global energy consumption, and the increasing share of non-fossil fuels in global energy supply. It emphasizes the central role markets and well-designed policy can play to meet the dual challenge of solving the energy needs of billions of people who aspire to better lifestyles, and doing so in a way that is sustainable and secure. It also notes the uncertainties attached to any long term projection. The discipline of building a numerical projection sharpens our thinking, but the precise numbers are less important than the underlying story of the challenges we all face and the choices we make in producing and consuming energy. To read the report please click EGF or BP

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.02.2012  |  Energy
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Within the framework of the IMEMO’s Oil and Gas Dialog Forum BP's chief economist Christof Rühl presented BP Energy Outlook 2030 to the audience of the Russian academics It was stressed that the outlook’s ‘base case’ reflects a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ assessment of the world’s likely path from today’s vantage point, drawing on expertise both within and outside the company. The outlook highlights the growing role of developing economies in global energy consumption, and the increasing share of non-fossil fuels in global energy supply. It emphasizes the central role markets and well-designed policy can play to meet the dual challenge of solving the energy needs of billions of people who aspire to better lifestyles, and doing so in a way that is sustainable and secure. It also notes the uncertainties attached to any long term projection. The discipline of building a numerical projection sharpens our thinking, but the precise numbers are less important than the underlying story of the challenges we all face and the choices we make in producing and consuming energy. To read the report please click EGF or BP

• BP  |  Published on EGF: 08.02.2012  |  Energy
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Issue 10: November-December 2011

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
Key points:

• Gazprom hasn’t given up on its attempts to break into South-East Asian gas markets. Its proposal for a potential trans-Korean pipeline has found support in both North and South Korea. However, North Korea’s change in leadership casts a shadow of doubt over the situation
• Gazprom’s purchase of the remaining 50 percent share in Beltransgaz brought a sigh of relief to European consumers, with transit disputes and Belarusian debts for Russian gas seemingly laid to rest. The purchase is one of several measures designed to bring Russia and Belarus closer together, and demonstrate to Ukraine the potential benefits of selling its gas transportation system to Gazprom
• Nord Stream was launched with great fanfare. The launch has a substantial impact on the current transit situation, with Ukraine looking like the loser of the piece as its transit volumes are increasingly likely to fall
• Gazprom intensified negotiations with Kiev over the possible sale of Ukraine’s gas transit system. Given the sale of Beltransgaz to Gazprom and the announcement that South Stream will go ahead as planned, there is a fair chance that Kiev will give up shares in its gas transport system
• The Turkish national gas pipelines operator, Botaş has refused to renew its 26-year contract to purchase 6 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian gas annually, which expired on the 31st of December 2011. Gazprom’s subsequent attempts to circumvent the national supplier have failed: The Turkish Ministry of Energy has refused applications by 26 companies for licences to import Russian gas
• PGNiG has filed an arbitration case against Gazprom for lower gas prices and greater spot-price element in contracts. Even if the Polish company ultimately succeeds in its aim, the process could drag on for months
• Gazprom plans to pay record dividends, estimated to be 200bn Roubles. However, shareholders should not expect such generosity from Gazprom next year: The size of Gazprom’s declared investment programme precludes similar profits next year.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 19.01.2012  |  Energy
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Issue 9: October 2011

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
Key points:

• In a somewhat surprising development for Gazprom, Turkish state-owned gas pipeline operator, Botaş, has declined to extend its contract for 6 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year. The move is seen by some as an attempt by Ankara to obtain gas price discounts.
• The Polish state-owned energy company, PGNiG, has joined its European counterparts in pressing for lower gas prices from Gazprom. Warsaw wants to change the gas price formula and tie it to spot gas market prices.
• Another recent, unpleasant surprise for Gazprom was the launch of an investigation into its European partners carried out by the European Commission (EC). Officially, the EC investigation concerns the potential violation of antimonopoly legislation, although some commentators see the investigation as an attempt to strengthen the position of European consumers in their negotiations with the Russian gas giant.
• Belarus has agreed terms with Gazprom for the sale of the remaining 50 percent stake in Beltransgaz. In return, Belarus President, Alexander Lukashenko, is demanding guarantees of transit through the Belarusian pipeline network and a reduction in gas import prices to the level of internal Russian prices.
• Ukraine President, Viktor Yanukovich’s attempt to destroy his political rival, Yulia Timoshenko, is playing into Gazprom’s hands. As Brussels toughens its stance towards Kiev, Ukraine is forced to be more amenable in its negotiations with Russia, especially those over the future of Ukraine’s Gas Transit System (GTS)
• Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s visit to China failed to produce a breakthrough in negotiations over the Altai gas pipeline and potential Russian gas deliveries to China. The price of gas exports via the Altai pipeline remains the main stumbling block, as Gazprom is currently seeking other ways of exporting gas to China, namely via the Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.11.2011  |  Energy
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 2011
Key Points:

• Turkey’s economy continues to flourish in comparison with other developed economies on its European periphery. The country gained over a million jobs and clocked an 11 percent growth rate in the first quarter of 2011 while its GDP grew by 8.8 percent.
• Germany’s Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, leant his support to the Turkish accession bid to the EU, saying that the EU should be “fair to Turkey in the negotiation process.”
• Ankara continues its condemnation of Syrian violence against opposition and activist members, and according to a number of reports, is now hosting a group of former Syrian soldiers called the Free Syrian Army.
• A large earthquake in the Van province has exacerbated Kurdish-Turkish relations with claims of bias being leveled at the government for the manner of its response to the disaster in the mainly Kurdish region.
• Turkish Security Forces (TSK) continue their assault on PKK strongholds in Iraq after a devastating attack in mid-October that left 24 TSK soldiers dead. On October 28, police arrested a number of pro-Kurdish BDP Party members in and around Istanbul, including member of the intra-party constitutional commission, Buşra Ersanli.
• Azerbaijan and Turkey finally conclude a natural gas supply agreement following two years of negotiations, while BOTAS informs Gazprom that it will not renew a key existing gas supply contract with Russia.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.11.2011  |  Energy
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during September 2011
Key developments:

• Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s September is filled with tumultuous foreign policy issues, coalescing disputes with Israel, Cyprus and the world’s stance towards Somalia in his statement to the UN General Assembly.
• The prime minister visited Libya, Egypt and Tunisia in a quick tour of countries touched by the Arab Spring while continuing his condemnation of Syrian repression of civilians and rebuffing Iranian and Russian anger at Ankara’s participation in NATO’s missile shield.
• Kurdish-related violence seizes the country through terrorist attacks and military operations between PKK fighters and the Turkish military. BDP Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party parliamentary deputies end their boycott of the parliament in order to end the hostilities.
• The European Commission instigates raids on Gazprom subsidiaries on suspected competition violations, with many calling it a political move to garner support for Nabucco and undermine South Stream and Nord Stream.
• Energy major BP announces a planned pipeline from the Shah Deniz II field in Azerbaijan traversing Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.10.2011  |  Energy
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Issue 8: August-September 2011

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
Key points:

• Gazprom partners raided by European Commission Anti-trust Inspectors
• The dispute between Moscow and Kiev continues. Ukraine knows that it has a weak bargaining position and is in no hurry to make concessions to Russia
• Prime Minister Vladimir Putin launched the first string of Nord Stream, meaning Ukraine is now in danger of losing its status as the main transit country for Russia’s European gas exports
• Gazprom has signed roadmap with South Korea's Kogas for the construction of a pipeline from Vladivostok to South Korea
• Gazprom may suspend its project in Nigeria because of the lack of a law governing the oil and gas industry, although experts say Gazprom may have lost interest in this project because of potential difficulties in selling Nigerian gas
• Gazprom is looking to acquire two state-owned oil and gas companies in Kyrgyzstan
• The Gazprom affiliate Vemex has acquired a 51% stake in RSP Energy, marking the first time a Gazprom Group company will sell gas and electricity to Czech households
• Gazprom has signed a legally-binding agreement with its European partners on the implementation of the South Stream project, but has attracted criticism from the EU. According to Russian sources, EU Energy Commissioner, Guenther Oettinger, views South Stream as an attempt by Moscow to derail the ‘Southern Corridor’ gas supply diversification concept
• In line with new oil production projects in the region, Gazprom Neft is considering the construction of a new oil refinery near Murmansk
• Gazprom expects a doubling of the Mineral Extraction Tax by 2013.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.10.2011  |  Energy
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during August 2011
Key developments:

• Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan visits Mogadishu on a famine aid mission, the first visit by a non-African head of state in nearly 20 years. The trip is a huge boost to Turkey’s international image.
  
• Violence in the south-east of the country continues, leading to Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) cross-border raids into Iraq.
  
• Following criticism from the US Secretary of State, the justice ministry contradicts the number of journalists said to be held by Turkish authorities.
  
• Ankara continues to condemn the Syrian regime despite not calling for the resignation of President Bashar al- Assad. The country wins a seat at the Paris meeting of the new Libyan government following the apparent collapse of the Gaddafi regime.
  
• Azerbaijan and Turkey continue to negotiate a gas transit agreement, while Turkey’s reliance on foreign energy imports has reportedly increased 5 % since the AKP came to power.
  

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 15.09.2011  |  Energy
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Issue 7: June-July 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

This year, Gazprom is likely to report an income of about $60 billion from the export of 158 bcm of gas to Europe, according to expert estimates. This represents a 12 percent growth in income compared to the previous year and, according to Alexander Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Gazprom’s Board of Executive Directors, the company’s profits will be close to the record-breaking levels of 2008, when its income from exports reached $65 bn. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.08.2011  |  Energy
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A wide strip of mainland and continental shelf territory starting from the Rus- sian sector of the Arctic up to the Arabian Peninsula can be labelled an Arctic - Arabian hydrocarbon belt (CH-belt) of Eurasia. It is the strip where the major mainland oil and gas fields are located on the territory of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula countries. As the production of hydrocarbons has been developing, transport routes to the markets of their consumption, the major of which is the European Union, started to branch off this diagonal CH-belt of Eurasia in the latitudinal direction. Practically, these transport routes connect the area of production (upstream) with the consumption market (downstream).

• Mykhailo Gonchar, Alexander Duleba, Oleksandr Malynovskyi  |  Published on EGF: 27.06.2011  |  Energy
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