By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

There is a preconceived and very inaccurate perception in the West at large that the Russian Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) has and will continue to have difficulties in the coming years because Russia faces domestic economic challenges caused by the low price of oil, continuing economic sanctions imposed by the EU and the US and the breakdown of defence industrial relations with Ukraine.
There is very little understanding in the West that for President Vladimir Putin the issue of rearmament and well-functioning of the MIC are of crucial importance, and that the Russian president is not ready to give up an inch in tenaciously pursuing this ambitious items on his domestic agenda. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 14.09.2017  |  Markets
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Expert-advisor, Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Azerbaijan Republic

Baku hosted the first joint gathering of the heads of the railway administrations of Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine and Poland, on June 19. The meeting was dedicated to the newly-launched “South-West Transport Corridor,” which links into the broader Trans-Caspian International Route project launched in 2016. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |   |  Markets
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On 10-12 November 2016, our Head of Research, George Niculescu, will attend a workshop of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes, to be held in Reichenau (Austria), on: “Building an Energy Policy Management Institution for the South Caucasus”. He will moderate a panel, and will give a briefing on "A Model for Regional Cooperation on Early Recovery and Consequence Management in the Aftermath of Disasters".

• EGF Editor  |   |  Markets
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The second stakeholder consultation round in EGF's ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh research took place on 06-08 July 2014 in Berlin (Germany), including introduction of a post-conflict scenario building workshop. More than 30 experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and international partner NGOs and institutions attended this highly successful event, held in a constructive atmosphere of exchange. It has been the first step towards exploring the idea of a roadmap leading towards an economically integrated South Caucasus, and created a platform for exchange of information between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts. During the post-conflict scenario building workshop, regional participants simulated the negotiation of a roadmap for the implementation of economic components of a peace agreement built upon the Madrid principles, encompassing joint economic measures in areas such as energy, transport, trade, rehabilitation of the territories affected by the conflict, and the return of IDPs to their homeland. Click here to see the agenda of the seminar, and participants’ biographies. Click here to see the EGF presentation on this research. A summary of conclusions, as well as other related information will be published soon.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 11.07.2014  |  Markets
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The second stakeholder consultation round in EGF's ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh research took place on 06-08 July 2014 in Berlin (Germany), including introduction of a post-conflict scenario building workshop. More than 30 experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and international partner NGOs and institutions attended this highly successful event, held in a constructive atmosphere of exchange. It has been the first step towards exploring the idea of a roadmap leading towards an economically integrated South Caucasus, and created a platform for exchange of information between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts. During the post-conflict scenario building workshop, regional participants simulated the negotiation of a roadmap for the implementation of economic components of a peace agreement built upon the Madrid principles, encompassing joint economic measures in areas such as energy, transport, trade, rehabilitation of the territories affected by the conflict, and the return of IDPs to their homeland.

Please click here for the summary of conclusions.
Please click here to see the agenda of the seminar, and participants’ biographies.
Please click here to see the EGF presentation on this research.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 11.07.2014  |  Markets
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By George Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

Why use the OSCE to take a “jibe” at you know who ?

When on 6 December 2012, in the margins of the OSCE ministerial meeting in Dublin, the US state secretary Ms. Hillary Clinton warned about "a new effort by oppressive governments to "re-Sovietize" much of Eastern Europe and Central Asia" , many observers of Eurasian affairs might have wondered why she lashed out at Russia just before meeting foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss the Syrian crisis. READ MORE

• George Niculescu  |  Published on EGF: 08.01.2013  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 2012

Key Points:

• Turkey continues to work with Arab and Western allies to intensify pressure on Syria. After hosting the 1 April 2012, Friends of Syria group meeting, Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan responds to Syrian forces firing on a Turkish refugee camp by openly considering invoking NATO’s Article 5 on mutual defence.
• The Fethullah Gulen Movement’s influence on Turkey is re-examined following a somewhat controversial expose in the 24 April edition of The New York Times.
• A pricing dispute between the Kurdish Autonomous Government in Northern Iraq and the national government threatens Turkish crude supplies, while the TANAP pipeline agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkey should be signed by the end of the month.
• NABUCCO loses a Hungarian stakeholder while Turkish gas pipelines operator, BOTAS, cuts down its own stake in Brussels’ pipeline project. However, all is not lost in breaking Gazprom’s dominant grip on European gas supplies, as TANAP will likely connect to the revamped NABUCCO West project.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.05.2012  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 2012

Key Points:

• Turkey closes its embassy in Syria and openly discusses establishing buffer zones inside its southern neighbour for refugees fleeing the conflict zones.
• There is discontent within Turkey’s Shia Muslim minority about the AKP government’s criticism of the Alawite Assad regime, raising concern about possible ethnic tension in areas near the Turkey-Syria border.
• Turkey releases two high profile journalists under investigation in the Ergenekon trial, but opens a second investigation into comments made by one of them to the press upon his release.
• Iraqi leaders envisage future export routes for the country’s oil through Turkey in case of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the two countries’ economic ties grow as the Kurdish north becomes a prime export market for Turkish products.
• Turkey will go forward with its lawsuit against Iran for short-supplying on a natural gas contract.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.04.2012  |  Markets
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by Naim Ameur
Expert on political transition in Tunisia and the Maghreb

One year after the Jasmine Revolution of January 14, 2011, Tunisia has successfully advanced in its democratic transition and political reform process. The election of the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) held on October 23, 2011 was well organised, and for the first time in history, it was fair. Al-Nahdha (which means “renaissance” in Arabic), a moderate Islamic party, won 41 per cent of the NCA seats. READ MORE

• Naim Ameur  |  Published on EGF: 08.03.2012  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
February 2012

Key Points:

• A crisis erupted between state prosecutors and the intelligence service, when members from the latter refused to turn up for questioning regarding an investigation into ties to the PKK. The intervention of prime minister and the parliament have calmed matters for now, but some experts speculate the incident is a result of a break between the AKP and the Gulenist movement.
• Bloodshed in Syria continues while Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu travels to capitals throughout the world in an attempt to drum up support for an UN resolution to stop the violence there. Syrian refugees continue to flood into Turkey’s southern provinces, where the Free Syrian Army is said to be organizing the armed resistance to the regime in Damascus.
• France’s Constitutional Council invalidates the Armenian Genocide draft law passed in January, though both presidential candidates have vowed to push a reworded version upon entering office.
• The cold spell in Turkey shows the weakness in the country’s position as a net importer of gas, while supply issues with Azerbaijan and Iran drastically cut imports amidst increased use in the month. Energy Minister Taner Yildiz met with NABUCCO’s board of partners to discuss the link up of it and TANAP.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.03.2012  |  Markets
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