Issue 1: November/December 2010

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

Half a year after the gas dispute with Belarus, Gazprom has created a new ‘daughter’ company in Minsk, Gazprom Transgas West, as a potential operator of the Belarusian stretch of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. The current operator of the section in question is Beltransgaz, in which Gazprom holds a 50% stake. However, the new ‘daughter’ company, which will exercise complete control over the Belarusian section of the pipeline, will be completely controlled by Gazprom. Although few experts predicted that another gas dispute in 2010 was likely, since the current contract between Gazprom and Beltransgaz does not expire until the end of 2011, establishment of Transgas West implies that Moscow has been taking steps to prepare for the likelihood of future dispute scenarios. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.12.2010  |  Energy
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November 2010

Key positions:

• David Cameron’s forceful remarks over the summer on Turkey’s stagnant accession talks have hit a nerve in some circles in Brussels. Criticism of fellow German and French members of the EU by the prime minister on bias and playing to xenophobic political moods has addressed the elephant in the room over Turkey’s much debated membership application. Brussels is predicted to endorse the recent referendum results from Turkey as a positive step in its long standing bid to join the EU.

• A Turkish court struck down the headscarf ban in public universities recently, but no major social disturbances have been reported. The lack of social unrest over such a divisive issue seems to further demonstrate that Turkey is enshrining the values of a law based democratic society where sensitive political issues are settled in the courts and at the ballot box rather than in the streets. Meanwhile the Ergenekon trial (Turkey’s new national coup plot) has faded from national attention as the Istanbul prosecutor’s office has declined to pursue the case citing lack of verifiable evidence.

• The Turkish National Petroleum Corporation has recently won two major contracts in developing the two largest Iraqi gas fields, further increasing Turkey’s interests in its neighbour. This has not alleviated some concern in the business sector that warns a ballooning trade deficit over the past year has dire consequences for the long-term future of business growth.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.11.2010  |  Energy
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The publication of this collection of essays coincides with the second anniversary of the armed conflict between Russia and Georgia on August 8-12, 2009.

The first essay looks into the transformation of the Georgian armed forces under President Mikhail Saakashvili and details Tbilisi’s key preparations for the war.

• The Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies  |  Published on EGF: 16.08.2010  |  Energy
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Turkey’s importance to the EU should not be underestimated
Turkey’s unique geopolitical position, straddling both Europe and Asia (encompassing its proximity in the Middle East, Caucuses, Balkans, and Black & Caspian Sea regions specifically), has placed the country into a very advantageous position amongst all actors that are involved in any of these areas. Its longstanding membership in NATO and the Council of Europe, in addition to its historical military partnership with Israel, further underscores the fact that Turkey has long been, and continues to be, a partner of strategic importance to the West. Furthermore, with no end in sight to Europe’s reliance on imported Eurasian and Russian gas supplies, Turkey’s territory is the crossroads for the planned NABUCCO gas pipeline, which intends to decrease European reliance on Russian gas.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.06.2010  |  Energy
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Energy and security: Russia’s new obsession with the wider Black Sea region Revived by the economic recovery it has witnessed in recent years, and not necessarily weakened by the global financial crisis, Russia is demonstrating itself to be an increasingly assertive (political and economic) force in the wider-Black and Caspian Seas (BCS) basin. Exerting influence in the BCS region is a crucial element in the Russian geopolitical strategy, given the region’s importance both as an energy producer as well as its vitality as a primary corridor for the transit of oil and gas to international markets.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 26.05.2010  |  Energy
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Today, the European Parliament renewed its commitment to greater engagement by the European Union in the South Caucasus as it adopted a new resolution on EU policy in the region [1]. This is the first resolution dedicated to the South Caucasus countries since the launch, in 2009, of the EU’s landmark Eastern Partnership policy [2].

• AGBU Europe  |  Published on EGF: 24.05.2010  |  Energy
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Summary of Panel I: The Future of the Energy Charter and the Debate over the Third Package
The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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Summary of Panel II: Russia’s Arctic Uncertainty
The discussion in the second panel of the online session, which focused on the future of upstream energy exploration projects in the Russian Arctic, brought out the following messages for European policy makers and was supported by the ensuing extended commentary. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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“What lessons can we learn from the Soviet collapse and apply to the current situation in Russia?
First, we must remember that Russia today is an oil-dependent economy. No one can accurately predict the fluctuations of oil prices. The collapse of the Soviet Union should serve as a lesson to those who construct policy based on the assumption that oil prices will remain perpetually high. It would seem that in our country, which has lived through the collapse of the late 1980s and early 1990s, this fact would be evident. But as soon as the prices went up again at the beginning of 2000 and in 2004 became comparable in real terms to those at the beginning of the 1980s, the idea that ‘high oil revenues are forever’ has gained an even wider acceptance.

• Kari Liuhto  |  Published on EGF: 20.05.2010  |  Energy
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Energy Roundtable Summary Document

The EU-Russia energy roundtable discussion held at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) on February 26, 2010, brought together a significant number of well known experts and policy makers engaged in the EU-Russia energy relationship in order to assess some of the challenges which presently exist in this sphere. Some of these challenges are summarised below. The objectives of the seminar organisers were to create an environment in which experts and policy makers could openly and candidly discuss the challenges standing before the EU-Russia energy relationship. The roundtable was also attended by a large number of participants from academia, government, energy companies and the diplomatic community.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 17.05.2010  |  Energy
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