Jul. 2014. EGF Gazprom Monitor (394 Kb) A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas
Key points:
- Gazprom and the EU – EU antitrust investigators continue to prepare ‘statement of objections’; Gazprom excluded from expanded EU sanctions list
- Nord Stream – Planned capacity auction for OPAL cancelled, as European Commission postpones ruling indefinitely
- South Stream - Gazprom subsidiary Centrgaz is awarded the construction contract for South Stream in Serbia; Bulgarian government willing to listen to the European Commission over South Stream; European Commission recommends that Serbia halt work on South Stream pending legal clarifications
- Gazprom and Ukraine - Naftogaz and Ukrainian government announce plan to avoid Russian gas imports until March 2015; Ukrainian government and Naftogaz disagree over reports of reduced gas deliveries from Europe to Ukraine; Gazprom and Naftogaz arbitration cases could be combined
- Asia-Pacific region - Gazprom continues design process for proposed Vladivostok LNG terminal
- Elena Burmistrova replaces Alexander Medvedev as Director-General of Gazprom Export
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 12.08.2014
| External Relations
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May. 2014. EGF Turkey File (496 Kb) Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics between 16 May – 16 July 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
- Iraq implodes as the Islamic State (IS, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant or alternatively the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) allies with Iraqi Sunnis to overtake large swaths of the country’s northwest, including the city of Mosul. Turkish hostages are taken in the city, and the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq halts IS’s march towards oil-rich Kirkuk.
- Turkey balks at an independent Kurdistan, but in the long run, a stable and secular Kurdish state might become a better alternative to IS on its borders.
- The CHP and MHP nominate religiously conservative Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu as their presidential candidate, while the Kurdish HDP’s Selahattin Demirtas may play kingmaker if Prime Minister Erdogan enters a runoff in the August election.
- Parliament passes groundbreaking law moving the PKK peace talks forward, just in time for the presidential election.
- The Central Bank continues to resist demands by the prime minister to sharply cut interest rates.
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 23.07.2014
| External Relations
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Jun. 2014. EGF Gazprom Monitor (402 Kb) A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas
Key points:
- Lithuania’s competition authority fines Gazprom $48m for ‘failing to comply with merger conditions’ in relation
to its shareholding in Lietuvos Dujos, thus stifling competition in Lithuania’s gas market
- Gazprom sells its stakes in Lietuvos Dujos and Amber Grid
- European gas companies negotiated an average discount of 20 percent in 2013-14, according to Cedigaz
- Gazprom implements prepayment in Ukraine, meaning that Naftogaz will only receive gas for which it has
already paid. Given that Naftogaz failed to pay up front for its June gas supplies, the practical result was the
suspension of Gazprom deliveries to Naftogaz
- Bulgaria halts construction of South Stream, pending EU concerns over the tender process for its construction
on Bulgarian territory
- Gazprom and OMV confirm Austria’s entry into the South Stream project
- Gazprom expects $25bn pre-payment in China gas deal, but terms yet to be finalised
- Rosneft claims that a Gazprom monopoly on domestic pipelines in the Russian Far East would be illegal, and
promises legal action to secure its right to supply Russian consumers in the region
- Results of Gazprom's Annual General Meeting of Shareholders
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 15.07.2014
| External Relations
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Stakeholder Consultation Round Two - Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context (957 Kb)
The second stakeholder consultation round in EGF's ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh research took place on 06-08 July 2014 in Berlin (Germany), including introduction of a post-conflict scenario building workshop. More than 30 experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and international partner NGOs and institutions attended this highly successful event, held in a constructive atmosphere of exchange. It has been the first step towards exploring the idea of a roadmap leading towards an economically integrated South Caucasus, and created a platform for exchange of information between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts. During the post-conflict scenario building workshop, regional participants simulated the negotiation of a roadmap for the implementation of economic components of a peace agreement built upon the Madrid principles, encompassing joint economic measures in areas such as energy, transport, trade, rehabilitation of the territories affected by the conflict, and the return of IDPs to their homeland. Click here to see the agenda of the seminar, and participants’ biographies. Click here to see the EGF presentation on this research. A summary of conclusions, as well as other related information will be published soon.
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 11.07.2014
| Markets
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Stakeholder Consultation Round Two - Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context [UPDATED]
The second stakeholder consultation round in EGF's ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh research took place on 06-08 July 2014 in Berlin (Germany), including introduction of a post-conflict scenario building workshop. More than 30 experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and international partner NGOs and institutions attended this highly successful event, held in a constructive atmosphere of exchange. It has been the first step towards exploring the idea of a roadmap leading towards an economically integrated South Caucasus, and created a platform for exchange of information between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts. During the post-conflict scenario building workshop, regional participants simulated the negotiation of a roadmap for the implementation of economic components of a peace agreement built upon the Madrid principles, encompassing joint economic measures in areas such as energy, transport, trade, rehabilitation of the territories affected by the conflict, and the return of IDPs to their homeland.
Please click here for the summary of conclusions.
Please click here to see the agenda of the seminar, and participants’ biographies.
Please click here to see the EGF presentation on this research.
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 11.07.2014
| Markets
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May. 2014. EGF Gazprom Monitor (534 Kb) A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg
Key points:
- Special report on the Gazprom-CNPC gas deal: Gazprom was always unlikely to achieve ‘European’ prices for its gas exports to China, but the deal with CNPC is crucial to the development of gas production and transportation in East Siberia and Russia’s Far East
- In-depth report on the latest developments in the Gazprom-Naftogaz dispute: Gazprom switches to pre-payment, and demands that Naftogaz pay up front for its June gas supplies. If Naftogaz fails to pay by the 2nd of June, Gazprom’s supplies to Naftogaz to could be halted the following day
- EU antitrust damages directive approved by European Parliament, and passed to EU Council of Ministers for final approval
- Gazprom and Lietuvos Dujos reach agreement on gas price for Lithuania, as Lithuania continues to negotiate for alternative supplies
- Eni signs landmark agreement with Gazprom to switch to spot pricing in existing long-term gas supply contract
- South Stream could get a 32 bcm spur from Hungary to Austria
- Gazprom Marketing and Trading Ltd and CNPC each agree to buy 3 million tonnes of LNG per year for the next 20 years from Novatek’s Yamal LNG project
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 03.06.2014
| External Relations
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Apr. 2014. EGF Turkey File (417 Kb) Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics between 16 April – 15 May 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
- Turkey faces up to the worst mining disaster in its history, while the prime minister bungles the official response. A deputy chief of staff for Erdogan is photographed kicking a protester, and accusations are levelled that the prime minister himself struck another.
- Turkey’s top judge, with the prime minister in attendance, rebukes Erdogan in public statements in light of government criticism of the country’s top courts.
- While Turkey’s economic growth relies on substantial imports of Russian energy, the fate of the Crimean Tatars seems to remain outside the Turkish regional agenda.
- Alawites and Alevis, two religious minorities who largely support the opposition CHP, face an increasingly uncertain political future.
- In remarks to an American journalist, Prime Minister Erdogan says the country will pursue extradition of Fethullah Gulen from the U.S.
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 22.05.2014
| External Relations
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Brussels Seminar: Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context
A highly successful roundtable discussion on Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context took place on the 27th of March, 2014, at the European Parliament. The event was organized by the European Geopolitical Forum and international NGO partners, and was attended by more than 40 experts from the South Caucasus region and Brussels-based think tanks and international organizations who engaged in discussion in a constructive, informal ‘atmosphere of exchange’. The roundtable focused constructive energies on discussing a common future in an economically integrated South Caucasus, as a way to build mutual trust aimed at helping to overcome the current stalemate within the political and security negotiations. Please click here for the summary of conclusions of the event. READ MORE.
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 20.05.2014
| Security
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Armenia's Increasing Dependence on Russia*
By Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor
Armenia’s Russia-imposed self-isolation from the democratic international community continues and threatens to have economic and social consequences for the country. Russia is increasing its pressure in the South Caucasus, raising the specter of regional destabilization. While Russia already controls the most important sectors of Armenia’s economy, it seems set to reinforce its interests in the country so as to ensure that a fully dependent, loyal Armenia can constitute a tool for the projection of Russia’s political and military influence in the region. Russia’s overt attempt to fulfill its expansionist ambitions endangers the sovereignty of its neighbors, as well as regional stability and energy security. READ MORE
* This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.”
- Armen Grigoryan |
Published on EGF: 13.05.2014
| External Relations
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Apr. 2014. EGF Gazprom Monitor (528 Kb) A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics
at the European University of St Petersburg
Key points:
- Special report on Ukraine: Naftogaz, Gazprom, debts and prices: the saga continues
- In a bid to limit its dependence on Russian gas, Naftogaz seeks alternative supplies from Europe
- South Stream divides EU as OMV (Austria) breaks ranks to sign deal
- EU continues formulating ‘statement of objections’ in antitrust probe as Gazprom and EU representatives
confirm interest in retaining mutually beneficial energy relations
- Russian government seeks talks with EU over energy legislation in possible first step towards WTO arbitration
- Gazprom claims progress in talks with CNPC, expects contract to be signed in May
- Gazprom reports 2013 financial results in accordance with international financial reporting standards (IFRS)
- Gazprom and Turkey consider expansion of Blue Stream from 16 bcm to 19 bc
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 13.05.2014
| External Relations
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