A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: Gazprom-PGNiG gas price talks at ‘an advanced stage’; Gazprom and Eni pledge to continue close cooperation; Calm before the storm: Gazprom Deputy Chairman meets EU Competition Commissioner, with Gazprom due to reply to EU antimonopoly ‘Statement of Objections’ by the 28th of September
• Nord Stream: OMV CEO Seele confident of EU approval for Nord Stream II, meets with Gazprom CEO Miller to discuss joint venture for the project
• Turkish Stream: Stop and go – Russia and Turkey continue trading proposals, but real progress not expected until formation of new Turkish government in November; SE European Foreign Ministers could meet in September to discuss the ‘Tesla’ extension to Turkish Stream
• Ukraine: EU Commissioner for Energy Union meets with Ukrainian Energy Minister and Naftogaz CEO, and plans meeting with Russian Energy Minister in September ahead of next round of trilateral talks; Gazprom CEO expresses concerns over Naftogaz winter gas storage
• Belarus: Gazprom begins construction of Gazprom Centre in Minsk, set to be ‘the tallest building in Belarus’
• Asia: Shell participation in Sakhalin-III in doubt as US imposes sanctions on the project; Gazprom reports ‘good dynamics’ in ongoing negotiations with PetroChina and CNPC over pipeline deliveries of Russian gas to China, despite concerns over the commercial viability of the projects
• Other: Gazprom’s annual gas production could reach record low in 2015, as the company also cuts its sales price forecast

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.09.2015  |  External Relations
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Joining the dots and making sense of the key Geopolitical developments in Europe, Eurasia and MENA
By George Vlad NICULESCU, Head of Research, European Geopolitical Forum

• America’s acquiescence to Russian military involvement in Syria may reflect a fundamental change in US regional strategy in the Middle East.
• The Russian bet on Syria makes a broad-based political compromise on the governance of post-conflict Syria more necessary than ever.
• The stalemate in implementing Minsk 2 epitomizes the Ukrainian Donbas dilemma: bring Donetsk and Luhansk back into the fold of a federal state, or keep them out, as contested territories.
• The Iranian nuclear deal has brought both good and bad news, while Middle Eastern geopolitics is in full swing.
• The Nord Stream 2 corporate agreement: an interesting business opportunity likely to be mired with geopolitical concerns in Central-Eastern Europe and beyond.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.09.2015  |  External Relations
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Issue # 71
09/07/2015
Three National Guard officers were killed after a grenade was thrown from a crowd protesting against the changes to the constitution.
Media have reported that Russia might have changed its position on Donbass. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 07.09.2015  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: Stockholm Arbitration Institute completes oral hearing in Gazprom-Lithuania case; Polish state-owned PGNiG gains controlling stake in EuroPolGaz, operator of the Yamal-Europe pipeline in Poland, leaving Gazprom with minority stake; Greek Energy minister announces €2bn pipe dream project with Russia
• Nord Stream: Gazprom courts BASF and ENGIE (formerly GDF Suez) for Nord Stream II
• Turkish Stream: the Turkish government grants permission for Gazprom to conduct engineering surveys in its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, but Gazprom and Botaş yet to reach agreement on gas price discount; Russia and Greece sign Memorandum on extension to Turkish Stream in Greece
• Ukraine: Naftogaz maintains suspension of gas imports from Russia; Gazprom softens its tone on gas transit via Ukraine after 2019; Gazprom remains locked in transit contracts with Slovakia and Bulgaria, regardless of its transit contract with Naftogaz
• Belarus: Gazprom to invest $2-2.5bn in Belarusian gas infrastructure by 2020; Gas transit via Belarus reached 11.1 bcm in Q1 2015 – exactly the same as in Q1 2014
• Asia: Gazprom turns to South Korean expertise for floating LNG terminal in Kaliningrad, and continues to promote its planned Baltic LNG terminal as a source of small-scale deliveries to Kaliningrad
• Other: Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Ministry criticises Gazprom for accruing debts for Turkmen gas in 2015; Gazprom’s gas production in H1 2015 falls 13 percent year-on-year

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 05.08.2015  |  External Relations
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On 22 July 2015, EGF convened a further dialogue event between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts in its ongoing sequence on "What the South Caucasus Region Could Be: Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context" in Tbilisi (Georgia). Similar to previous events of this nature held in 2014, the Tbilisi meeting unfolded in a constructive atmosphere and aimed to assess the role of economic initiatives in building peace in the Nagorno-Karabakh context. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 30.07.2015  |  Security
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: European Commission extends deadline for Gazprom’s response to the Statement of Objections to mid-September 2015; Gazprom and Gasunie sign framework agreement on small-scale LNG cooperation
• Nord Stream: Gazprom announces signing of Memorandum of Intent for third and fourth lines of Nord Stream; Russia opens up possibility of non-Gazprom exports via Nord Stream through gas export auctions
• Turkish Stream: Turkish government grants permission for Gazprom to conduct engineering surveys in its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, but Gazprom and Botaş yet to reach agreement on gas price discount; Russia and Greece sign Memorandum on extension of Turkish Stream in Greece
• Ukraine: Naftogaz suspends gas imports from Russia on 1st of July, having failed to make pre-payment
• China: Gazprom and Shell sign Memorandum on adding third train to the Sakhalin-II LNG export project; Yamal LNG clinches two new LNG export deals as it seeks to pre-sell its export volumes; China officially launches construction of ‘Power of Siberia’ gas pipeline, as Gazprom and CNPC discuss possibility of Rouble-Yuan denominated contracts

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.07.2015  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
16 May – 17 June 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The AKP loses its parliamentary majority for the first time in 13 years, leaving the party in search of a coalition partner.
• As coalition talks begin, a nationalist AKP-MHP government appears to be the most likely scenario, though the MHP demands that Erdogan retain a ceremonial role and that investigations into AKP corruption be part of any agreement.
• An AKP-CHP “grand” coalition is possible, and, while less likely, might be a positive arrangement that could temper each party’s more extreme positions.
• The Kurdish HDP passes the parliamentary threshold, but the fate of the PKK peace process hangs in the balance as relations with the AKP have hit an all-time low.
• Uncertainty over the next government have put the brakes on the Turkish Stream Pipeline Project.
• Brussels congratulates Turkey on the elections, yet the country’s EU accession talks look unlikely to pick up speed any time soon.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 22.06.2015  |  External Relations
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Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor

The outcome of Turkey’s recent parliamentary elections may partly reduce tensions in relations with Armenia, stopping the mounting hostile rhetoric of recent months. A normalization of bilateral relations should not be expected at this stage, but the trend of increasing cooperation in the humanitarian area, and in culture, tourism, and the media in recent years will likely continue. At the same time, some policies may need READ MORE

This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.

• Armen Grigoryan  |  Published on EGF: 19.06.2015  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: PGNiG files a lawsuit in Stockholm arbitration court, seeks renegotiation of gas price formula; British energy company, Centrica, increases gas imports from Gazprom and Statoil
• Turkish Stream: Gazprom claims that Turkish Stream offshore construction will begin in first half of June 2015, and first gas supplies will be delivered by end of 2016; Greek government expresses support for all aspects of ‘Turkish Stream’ – except for the name, of course
• Ukraine: A curious mixture of threats and promises in the Gazprom-Naftogaz relationship:
  o Gazprom continues to provide gas to Naftogaz under pre-payment conditions, in line with extension of the ‘Winter Package’;
  o Naftogaz increases imports of Russian gas, benefits from continuation of discount and oil-indexed prices;
  o Gazprom agrees not to implement financial penalties for Naftogaz’s failure to meet its take-or-pay commitments during the winter package;
  o Naftogaz submits its Statement of Claim in its gas transit arbitration case against Gazprom – seeks $10bn in addition to its $6bn claim relating to ‘overpayment’ for gas supplies;
  o Gazprom CEO claims that company is seeking $29bn in its arbitration case with Naftogaz;
  o The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine launches its own investigation into Gazprom
  o Naftogaz begins stockpiling gas for the winter, but Gazprom express concerns that it is not storing enough to ensure a winter of risk-free gas transit
• Belarus: Gazprom Transgaz Belarus promotes development of natural gas powered vehicles at Belarusian Industrial Forum, supported by the Belarusian President
• China: Russian President ratifies Intergovernmental Agreement with China on gas supplies via the eastern route, as Gazprom and CNPC sign Heads of Agreement of gas supplies via the western (Altai) route

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 15.06.2015  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
15 April – 15 May 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Kurdish Peoples’ Democracy Party (HDP) looks set to be a king maker in June’s parliamentary elections, though its leader vows its election platform is “the nightmare of the sultan”—in reference to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
• The HDP makes a bold play to connect with voters outside of its core Kurdish constituency that, if successful, may siphon votes away from the Republican People’s Party (CHP). If it fails, however, the party risks being shut out of parliament entirely.
• After many years of competing interests, Saudi-Turkish political cooperation has the potential to impact the entire region.
• While the Turkish Stream project grabs headlines, progress on the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) draws the interest of potential new suppliers from Iraq and Iran.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.05.2015  |  External Relations
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