George Vlad Niculescu
Following closely after the ground-breaking Turkey-Russia gas export/pipeline MoU announced last week, another agreement was publicized between the Iraqi government and the KRG that could send additional KRG gas to Turkey. Some argue that, if the KRG ramps up and exports significant volumes, it could pose problems for Putin’s new plan. EGF Affiliated Expert Ahmed Mousa Jiyad explains why this is unlikely. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.12.2014  |  Energy
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George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Just like other parts of Eurasia, the South Caucasus is facing the challenge of a renewed East-West geopolitical competition underpinned by three evolving challenges: 1) a growing ideological gap between Russia and the West; 2) the chronic persistence of protracted conflicts; 3) the dilemma of post-Soviet states: European vs. Eurasian integration.
More specifically, the South Caucasus geopolitical landscape is shaped by:

• the competition between Russia and the West in the wake of the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, which effectively brought the European cooperative security era to an end;
• growing Russian regional assertiveness, whereby the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is increasingly used as a vehicle for countering strides towards European integration, while OSCE-led conflict resolution is manipulated to create geopolitical leverage over the regional states;
• a tacit Russian-Turkish partnership of convenience, which is basically motivated by... READ MORE

• George Niculescu  |   |  Security
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EGF has released a combined summary document, including analysis, pictures, and other information from both the Brussels and Berlin Stakeholder Consultation rounds. Please click here for the PDF publication.

• EGF Editorial  |   |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
16 Sep. – 15 Nov. 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Syrian border town of Kobane becomes a symbolic battleground between the Islamic State (ISIS) and the American-backed Kurdish fighters of the YPG. Turkey sits out the fight, deeming both sides to be terrorists.
• Ankara, while insisting on increased American involvement in the form of regime change in Damascus, allows Kurdish Peshmerga from Iraq to cross into the besieged town.
• The ruling AKP’s attempts to curb free speech on the Internet draw the ire of domestic and international observers.
• Fitch remains reassured of Turkey’s stability for the time being, but a host of issues stemming from the country’s unstable neighbourhood threaten to undermine medium-term growth prospects.
• Turkey remains vulnerable to gas cuts due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. However, Turkey’s work on diversifying energy imports continues. The Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq is set to increase oil exports to the Turkish port of Ceyhan before the New Year, while improved relations with Greece may give Turkey another foot in the European energy market.
• Despite setbacks in early October, the PKK peace process remains intact. The government must take another step in giving Turkey’s Kurds a reason to stay at the table, though the final decision on whether the peace holds may be left to imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.
• TANAP moves forward, but the inclusion of Turkmen gas may likely require the completion of a Trans-Caspian pipeline.
• Turkish-owned Genel signs an agreement to begin preparations for the production of two Kurdish Regional Government gas fields in Iraqi Kurdistan. The news comes as Baghdad and Erbil finally agree to revenue and budget sharing, after months of strife.
• President Erdogan offers bold pronouncements on the history of the Americas and Western duplicity in Syria at a conference of Latin American Islamic scholars.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.11.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• European Commission further postpones ruling on use of OPAL pipeline
• Gazprom and Wintershall finalise asset-swap, as Gazprom gains control of Europe’s largest underground gas storage facility (UGSF)
• Lithuania breaks free of Gazprom monopoly with first LNG delivery
• Gazprom and Naftogaz agree on short-term ‘winter package’ until March 2015 to ensure gas supplies and transit during the upcoming winter
• Nord Stream: Nord Stream AG deny reports that plans to extend Nord Stream to the UK will be shelved amid tensions between Russia and the EU
• South Stream: Hungarian MVM shows its support for Gazprom with gas storage deal; MVM also pledges to complete the Hungarian section of South Stream by 2017
• Gazprom CEO holds talks, discusses funding from Chinese banks and gas supply via the ‘Western Route’
• Gazprom refills Serbian gas storage facility to capacity in preparation for winter

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 05.11.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• EU antitrust investigation: suspended but not finished
• Lithuanian government continues with arbitration case against Gazprom
• Gazprom struggles to meet European gas demand beyond contracted levels as winter approaches
• European gas prices continue to fall – Gazprom could face revenue shortage
• Gazprom and Ukraine – new round of trilateral gas talks imminent as winter approaches
• Gazprom reduces gas supplies to Poland, Slovakia, and Austria – a warning against ‘reverse flow’?
• Hungary sides with Gazprom against Ukraine
• Nord Stream: European Commission delays decision on OPAL pipeline until 31st of October
• South Stream: EU cannot halt South Stream construction, but threatens action upon completion of the pipeline
• South Stream: EU puts pressure on Serbia to halt South Stream construction
• Gazprom could sign second contract for gas deliveries to China, this time via the ‘Western Route’
• Gazprom agrees to expand the capacity of Blue Stream pipeline from 16 bcm to 19 bcm per year

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 14.10.2014  |  External Relations
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The second stakeholder consultation round in EGF's ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh research took place on 06-08 July 2014 in Berlin (Germany), including introduction of a post-conflict scenario building workshop. More than 30 experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and international partner NGOs and institutions attended this highly successful event, held in a constructive atmosphere of exchange. It has been the first step towards exploring the idea of a roadmap leading towards an economically integrated South Caucasus, and created a platform for exchange of information between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts. During the post-conflict scenario building workshop, regional participants simulated the negotiation of a roadmap for the implementation of economic components of a peace agreement built upon the Madrid principles, encompassing joint economic measures in areas such as energy, transport, trade, rehabilitation of the territories affected by the conflict, and the return of IDPs to their homeland.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 29.09.2014  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during Aug. 16th - Sept. 15th 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• New Prime Minister Ahmet Davuglotu announces his cabinet with few surprises, save the re-appointment of economic policy heads Ali Babacan and Mehmet Simsek. The cabinet will continue to carry out its predecessor’s policies, though Turkey’s de facto leader remains President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
• Turkey declines to actively support American-led airstrikes against the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria. Its reluctance, despite the continued imprisonment of 49 hostages by IS, has drawn the ire of critics in the West, who accuse it of failing to confront the jihadist fighters.
• Syria’s refugees in Turkey look to swell to 1.5 million by the end of 2014. Their presence outside of the few refugee camps is giving rise to resentment amongst Turkey’s citizens.
• The Babacan and Simsek appointments to the prime minister’s cabinet have soothed market concerns about the stewardship of the country’s economy, though slower growth in the coming years looks to be the next great challenge for the ruling AKP.
• Turkish national oil company TPAO secures a 19 percent stake in the Shah Deniz-2 gas field, while Kurdish oil continues to flow to the Turkish port of Ceyhan despite the protestations of the Iraqi central government in Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 24.09.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• EU antitrust investigation into Gazprom – victim of the deterioration in EU-Russia relations?
• Nord Stream - Russian sources report imminent ruling from European Commission on OPAL pipeline
• South Stream - Bulgaria halts work on South Stream for a second time. Or does it?; Srbijagas announces that work is proceeding as scheduled, despite last month’s warning from the EU that the project should be halted
• Gazprom and Ukraine - Ukrainian Energy Ministry proposes ‘interim’ agreement with Gazprom, pending results of arbitration; Naftogaz opens pipeline from Slovakia; Ukrainian parliament votes to allow leasing of gas transmission system; Naftogaz returns $10m of ‘unused’ transit fees to Gazprom
• Asia-Pacific region - Gazprom launches construction of ‘Power of Siberia’ gas pipeline to China
• Gazprom takes delivery of its fifth LNG tanker, brings fleet capacity to 800,000 m3; Gazprom gas production in 2014 expected to fall vs. 2013

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 11.09.2014  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 16th-Aug 15th-2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan becomes the first popularly elected president of the Turkish Republic, capturing 51.7 percent of the vote and avoiding a run off.
• Since the Presidency is still a largely ceremonial post, expect President-elect Erdogan to push hard for the 2015 parliamentary elections where an AKP majority win could pave the way for a constitutional change that empowers the executive branch.
• Turkey tries to help the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq hold the line, while negotiations continue for Turkish hostages held by the Islamic State (IS).
• Following the latest Hamas-Israeli clash in the Gaza Strip, Turkey foreswears all cooperation with the Jewish state until the combat stops.
• Turkey continues to balance economic ties between Erbil and Baghdad over oil shipments from the KRG, while the South Stream gas pipeline passes an environmental impact study off the Turkish Black Sea coast.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.08.2014  |  External Relations
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