EGF Turkey File (91 Kb) Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 16-31st 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
- Turkey slowly changes tactics in Syria, pulling back support for Islamist fighters who have begun to turn on
other opposition forces in the Free Syrian Army and Kurdish militias.
- The Syrian offshoot of the PKK, the PYD, continues to push back groups like Jabhat al Nusra and Islamic State
of Iraq and Al Sham. Its leader has called on Turkey to halt its complicity in helping these groups.
- A ceasefire continues to hold between the PKK and Turkish Security Forces, but time is running out for the
government to offer substantive next steps at reconciliation. Complicating Turkey’s relations with its own
Kurdish minority is the multiple breaks between Kurdish leaders throughout the region.
- Europe and Asia are now connected by rail via the Marmaray Tunnel, though the long term financial
sustainability of the economy could be harmed by such projects. Turkey’s economy has slowed considerably,
and with the U.S. Federal Reserve set to raise interest rates in 2014, financing the growing budget deficit
could be a problem.
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 08.11.2013
| External Relations
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EGF Turkey File (96 Kb) Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
- Turkey agrees to a Chinese manufactured missile defense system, worrying its NATO allies.
- The European Commission says Turkey’s bid remains open to joining the EU while criticizing the government’s
handling of the Gezi Park protests.
- Turkey’s EU negotiator expresses his doubts towards his Sisyphean task, saying that full membership is not
likely.
- Abdullah Ocalan calls on the government to act on its promise to negotiate. The PKK’s military leader in the
field has halted the organization’s withdrawal from Turkey, meaning that should talks fail, a resumption of
violence would likely soon follow.
- TANAP and TAP pipeline projects move forward, while the KRG has made more than $1 billion in profits
shipping oil overland to Turkish ports. The situation continues to draw the ire of Baghdad.
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 28.10.2013
| External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor (141 Kb) A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas
Key points:
- Gazprom’s Q1 profits rise due to increased sales revenues and reduced ‘retroactive payments’ to European
energy; Gas price negotiations between Gazprom & Lithuania continue; Russia and EU agree terms of use for
OPAL; Gazprom commissions underground gas storage facility in Kaliningrad and may build Baltic LNG import
and export terminals; EU prepares to charge Gazprom with abusing its dominant market position in Central
and Eastern Europe; Gazprom asset-swap with BASF to be confirmed by early 2014
- Ukraine faces delay in beginning of gas supplies from Europe via Slovakia; Gazprom and Ukraine reach a
compromise over the amount of gas needed to be kept in storage to ensure stable transit of Russian gas via
Ukraine in winter 2013-14
- The EU leaves South Stream off its list of Projects of Common Interest
- Gazprom and CNPC agree major T&Cs for gas supplies to China except for price, resulting in a delay to the start
of construction of a new pipeline from Russia to China
- Gazprom predicts losses of $16bn from planned freeze of domestic gas price increases, responds with call to
freeze proposed Mineral Extraction Tax increases
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 21.10.2013
| External Relations
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EGF Turkey File (95 Kb) Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during September 1-30th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
- Prime Minister Erdogan announces the long-awaited democratization package. While a step in the right
direction, the proposal is lacking with regards to many of the challenges the Republic faces.
- The opposition CHP, MHP and BDP voice disappointment with the prime minister’s proposals, but none have
pulled out of negotiations at the Constitution Conciliation Commission thus far. A positive sign, if any, exists.
- Protests continue in the country’s major cities, albeit on a more sporadic basis than those in the summer.
Reasons behind each demonstration vary, yet the underlying dissatisfaction with the AKP remains a unifying
factor regardless of the location.
- Syria’s civil war shows no sign of ending as infighting continues between the opposition forces.
- Turkey tries a different track, making overtures to the PKK-affiliated PYD despite its connections to the
separatist group currently in the midst of a ceasefire with the Turkish government.
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 07.10.2013
| External Relations
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Russian Problem: Russia's Place in the World - an Attempt at Historical and Geopolitical Analysis (403 Kb)
by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security
A Long Western Debate and its Political Consequences
Although Russia has been part of the European system since the Westphalian Treaty of 1648, and after its victory in the Northern War with Sweden and the Nystad Treaty in 1721 started to be seen as of he major powers on the continent, both its internal nature and its role in international politics have often suffered Western doubts and uncertainties. READ MORE
- Andrej Kreutz |
Published on EGF: 19.09.2013
| External Relations
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EGF Turkey File (86 Kb) Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during August 16-31st 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
- A chemical attack is allegedly launched in Damascus’ suburbs, threatening to elicit a U.S. military response
and possibly a wider regional war. Turkey backs the Americans, with Prime Minister Erdogan and President
Abdullah Gul saying Bashar al-Assad must go.
- Kurdish fighters in northern Syria establish their own administrative areas in the country while continuing to
fight jihadist elements of the Free Syrian Army. Their autonomy may be a flashpoint should Turkey be forced
to make a ground incursion into Syria.
- Egypt’s military-backed government continues to snipe back at the Turkish prime minister, who has emerged
as its most vocal critic outside of Egypt.
- The poor relations between Ankara and Cairo may be costing Turkey influence and money with regional
partners who supported the military putsch that unseated Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 12.09.2013
| External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor (111 Kb) A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas
Key points:
- Russia warns EU over anti-monopoly investigation; OMV enters into price-revision talks with Gazprom and
Statoil; Gazprom and GDF Suez agree to revise their gas contract; Gazprom’s European exports rise 9.6 percent
y-o-y in H1 2013, but net profits fall 35 percent; Gazprom cancels calls for bids to prepare project
documentation for the Shtokman project; Gazprom subsidiary to enter the Italian fuel market as Gazprom
plans an expansion of its own natural gas vehicle (NGV) market
- Ukraine reduces its imports of Russian gas in favour of supplies from Europe
- Russian Stroytransgas to build the overland sections of South Stream in the Balkans
- No new developments in Gazprom-CNPC negotiations, but Putin’s meeting with the Chinese President, Xi
Jinping, at the G20 Summit could add fresh impetus
- Gazprom wins auction for Moscow power generation utility, MOEK
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 02.09.2013
| External Relations
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EGF Turkey File (494 Kb) Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-16 August 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
- The Ergenekon case reaches its expected finish, with 19 defendants facing decades in prison. Former Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug, faces life for his role in the conspiracy.
- The timing of the case’s conclusion with the recent military overthrow of Egypt’s democratically elected government appears to be a message to Turkey’s generals.
- Outside of the AKP camp, critics rounded on the lack of plausibility regarding the evidence and cast of players.
- Parliament’s Constitutional Commission speeds up its work, adding protections for women, children, and homosexuals to the draft document.
- Turkey’s economy slows as foreign investment pulls back from emerging markets.
- Yet the long term investment possibilities, specifically in the energy infrastructure sector, appear to be a solid bet.
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 02.09.2013
| External Relations
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EGF Turkey File (574 Kb) Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 16-31, 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:
- The Kurdish PYD seizes several towns in Syria’s northwest, ejecting Islamist groups from a Turkish border crossing.
- Turkey reaches out to the PYD, whose leader visits and meets with the country’s political and military representatives.
- Reporters Without Borders drops Turkey to 154 in its press freedom index.
- The PKK and AKP snipe at one another about adherence to the ceasefire. Progress on adjustment to legislation intended to ameliorate the Kurdish dilemma must be made soon, otherwise the momentum and dialogue gains made during recent months might slip away.
- Turkey’s energy import payments decreased in early 2013, while plans for a proposed nuclear plant are rejected by the Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning.
- Genel reports that the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq will have its own export pipeline by 2014. It remains to be seen what the next move of the Iraqi Government will be.
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 08.08.2013
| External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor (691 Kb) A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas
Key points:
- Lietuvos Dujos prepares to extend its current gas supply contract with Gazprom in exchange for lower prices and offtake commitments; Gazprom to amend its gas supply contract with RWE following Vienna arbitration ruling; Edison is next in line for arbitration with Gazprom following the RWE ruling; Gazprom announces an upward revision of its 2013 gas export forecast and a 29 percent increase in gas exports to Europe in July 2013 versus the same period in 2012
- Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukraine reach agreement on reliable gas transit via Ukraine for winter 2013-14
- The Armenian government considers handing over its remaining stake in the country’s natural gas monopoly to Gazprom in exchange for lower prices; Gazprom acquires Kyrgyzstan’s natural gas monopoly, Kyrgyzgaz, and pledges substantial investment
- The Bulgarian section of South Stream faces delays over environmental reports and construction permits, but Gazprom remains adamant that the project will be completed on schedule; Macedonia to get South Stream branch
- Gazprom Germania decides against new UGSF in Triepkendorf, but continues to investigate the possibility of new gas storage facilities near Nord Stream’s landfall; Gazprom continues to press for full use of the OPAL pipeline in Germany; Nederlandse Gasunie complains about the quality of Russian gas delivered via Nord Stream
- Gazprom takes delivery of second LNG tanker for the delivery of gas to the Asia-Pacific via the Northern Sea Route
- Rosneft increases gas production by 186 percent versus H1 2012, providing further competition for Gazprom in the Russian gas sector; The International Energy Agency (IEA) voices its support for a shift from oil-indexed to spot gas prices; Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering wins tender for up to 16 ice-class LNG tankers for the Yamal LNG project; Moscow hosts the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)
READ MORE
- EGF Editorial |
Published on EGF: 08.08.2013
| External Relations
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