The second stakeholder consultation round in EGF's ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh research took place on 06-08 July 2014 in Berlin (Germany), including introduction of a post-conflict scenario building workshop. More than 30 experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and international partner NGOs and institutions attended this highly successful event, held in a constructive atmosphere of exchange. It has been the first step towards exploring the idea of a roadmap leading towards an economically integrated South Caucasus, and created a platform for exchange of information between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts. During the post-conflict scenario building workshop, regional participants simulated the negotiation of a roadmap for the implementation of economic components of a peace agreement built upon the Madrid principles, encompassing joint economic measures in areas such as energy, transport, trade, rehabilitation of the territories affected by the conflict, and the return of IDPs to their homeland.

Please click here for the summary of conclusions.
Please click here to see the agenda of the seminar, and participants’ biographies.
Please click here to see the EGF presentation on this research.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 11.07.2014  |  Markets
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• Special report on the Gazprom-CNPC gas deal: Gazprom was always unlikely to achieve ‘European’ prices for its gas exports to China, but the deal with CNPC is crucial to the development of gas production and transportation in East Siberia and Russia’s Far East
• In-depth report on the latest developments in the Gazprom-Naftogaz dispute: Gazprom switches to pre-payment, and demands that Naftogaz pay up front for its June gas supplies. If Naftogaz fails to pay by the 2nd of June, Gazprom’s supplies to Naftogaz to could be halted the following day
• EU antitrust damages directive approved by European Parliament, and passed to EU Council of Ministers for final approval
• Gazprom and Lietuvos Dujos reach agreement on gas price for Lithuania, as Lithuania continues to negotiate for alternative supplies
• Eni signs landmark agreement with Gazprom to switch to spot pricing in existing long-term gas supply contract
• South Stream could get a 32 bcm spur from Hungary to Austria
• Gazprom Marketing and Trading Ltd and CNPC each agree to buy 3 million tonnes of LNG per year for the next 20 years from Novatek’s Yamal LNG project

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 03.06.2014  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics between 16 April – 15 May 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey faces up to the worst mining disaster in its history, while the prime minister bungles the official response. A deputy chief of staff for Erdogan is photographed kicking a protester, and accusations are levelled that the prime minister himself struck another.
• Turkey’s top judge, with the prime minister in attendance, rebukes Erdogan in public statements in light of government criticism of the country’s top courts.
• While Turkey’s economic growth relies on substantial imports of Russian energy, the fate of the Crimean Tatars seems to remain outside the Turkish regional agenda.
• Alawites and Alevis, two religious minorities who largely support the opposition CHP, face an increasingly uncertain political future.
• In remarks to an American journalist, Prime Minister Erdogan says the country will pursue extradition of Fethullah Gulen from the U.S.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 22.05.2014  |  External Relations
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A highly successful roundtable discussion on Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context took place on the 27th of March, 2014, at the European Parliament.  The event was organized by the European Geopolitical Forum and international NGO partners, and was attended by more than 40 experts from the South Caucasus region and Brussels-based think tanks and international organizations who engaged in discussion in a constructive, informal ‘atmosphere of exchange’. The roundtable focused constructive energies on discussing a common future in an economically integrated South Caucasus, as a way to build mutual trust aimed at helping to overcome the current stalemate within the political and security negotiations. Please click here for the summary of conclusions of the event. READ MORE. 

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.05.2014  |  Security
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By Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor

Armenia’s Russia-imposed self-isolation from the democratic international community continues and threatens to have economic and social consequences for the country. Russia is increasing its pressure in the South Caucasus, raising the specter of regional destabilization. While Russia already controls the most important sectors of Armenia’s economy, it seems set to reinforce its interests in the country so as to ensure that a fully dependent, loyal Armenia can constitute a tool for the projection of Russia’s political and military influence in the region. Russia’s overt attempt to fulfill its expansionist ambitions endangers the sovereignty of its neighbors, as well as regional stability and energy security. READ MORE

* This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.”

• Armen Grigoryan  |  Published on EGF: 13.05.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• Special report on Ukraine: Naftogaz, Gazprom, debts and prices: the saga continues
• In a bid to limit its dependence on Russian gas, Naftogaz seeks alternative supplies from Europe
• South Stream divides EU as OMV (Austria) breaks ranks to sign deal
• EU continues formulating ‘statement of objections’ in antitrust probe as Gazprom and EU representatives confirm interest in retaining mutually beneficial energy relations
• Russian government seeks talks with EU over energy legislation in possible first step towards WTO arbitration
• Gazprom claims progress in talks with CNPC, expects contract to be signed in May
• Gazprom reports 2013 financial results in accordance with international financial reporting standards (IFRS)
• Gazprom and Turkey consider expansion of Blue Stream from 16 bcm to 19 bc

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.05.2014  |  External Relations
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Issue # 16
05/05/2014
Pro-Russian insurgents have shot down two Ukrainian helicopters in the eastern Ukrainian city of Slovyansk and hit another one. There are victims. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 07.05.2014  |  External Relations
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Issue # 15
04/28/2014
In response, Russia starts an army drill on the Ukrainian border. Read more in SEPARATIST ACTS OF PROVOCATION IN SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 05.05.2014  |  External Relations
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by Dr. Radu Dudau, director of the Energy Policy Group Bucharest (EGF Information Partner)

Romania’s most important foreign energy policy project, the Nabucco gas pipeline, collapsed in June 2013 as the rivaling TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) won the bidding for transporting Azerbaijani gas to the EU. Hence, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) will link the Caspian Basin to Southern Italy via Turkey, Greece, Albania, and the Adriatic Sea. Shah Deniz consortium’s choice was predominantly commercial, yet it came to the detriment of Eastern Europe’s strategic necessities. But, although left with no large scale international project, Romania keeps significant options to improve its energy security on the medium term. This paper reviews Romania’s prospective new sources –internal and external – of primary energy. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.05.2014  |  Energy
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Issue # 14
04/21/2014
Over the last week, pro-Russian activists in the east of Ukraine continued armed seizures of buildings. In particular, the separatists stormed and seized the city police department in Horlivka (Donetsk Region), with several injured reported. The protesters put up a Russian flag on the building. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2014  |  External Relations
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