February 2011

Key positions:

• Former Turkish Prime Minister, Necmettin Erbakan, passed away Sunday 27 February. He was 84. Erbakan, the first Islamist prime minister of the Turkish Republic, was forced to resign after only a year into his reign by the military, in what is called the first ‘post-modern coup’.

• Under the guidance of current Prime Minister Erdogan, Turkey has stayed on the sidelines throughout much of the past weeks while protests raged throughout the Middle East. Ankara is finding its new position as a dominant regional actor as having less impact than previously thought, but has been forced to act pragmatically due to the proximity of its own citizens and financial interests in the affected nations.

• Prime Minister Erdogan recently spoke in Dusseldorf, Germany, telling Turks there that while they should learn the (German) language and participate in wider culture of their new homeland; assimilation would be an affront to their human rights. The prime minister also spoke positively about Turkey’s accession to the EU, surprising some for the positive manner in which the AKP leader addressed the issue after years of European rejection.

• The Nabucco gas pipeline still appears to be up in the air as none of the participating companies have yet signed any construction agreements, while a Russian delegation has put pressure on the Brussels-EU whilst addressing its own energy security concerns. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 18.03.2011  |  Energy
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ISSUE #04
02/15/2011

The President of Ukraine does not agree with the statements that the fight against corruption in Ukraine only targets the people that are in opposition to the current Government.
The Head of State says the corrupt individuals, trying to avoid responsibility, are using various lobbying groups in the country as well as overseas with the purpose of discrediting the actions of the Ukrainian authorities. The President reminded that everybody should be held responsible for corrupt acts regardless of what political party they belong to. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 17.02.2011  |  External Relations
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The Gorhenin Institute held a round table discussion - Prospects for Ukrainian Business in Russia - on 8 February. Experts and businessmen discussed the most promising areas of cooperation for Russian and Ukrainian business.
President of UPEC Industrial Group Anatoliy Girshfeld considers that Ukrainian business has prospects in Russia in the knowledge-based industry sector while operations in raw material sectors may hampered with strong government regulation. ‘The government actively regulates the raw materials and associated industry sectors and it won’t loose it’s hands on it. This is the main source of the budget income’, - O.Girshfeld said. ‘The state of the knowledge-based industry is a common problem to the entire post-Soviet space. That is why Russia has to allow entering its markets the companies developing in the knowledge-based industry, even in strategic sectors,’ – A.Girshfeld said. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 15.02.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #0
01/31/2011

Prosecutor General's Office (PGO) of the Czech Republic sees impossible the extradition of the former Minister of Economy of Ukraine Bohdan Danylyshyn. On January 21st, 2011, Czech authorities submitted a petition to the Prague City Court asking not to allow the extradition of B.Danylyshyn from the Czech Republic to Ukraine due to his getting a political asylum in the Czech Republic. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 02.02.2011  |  External Relations
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Tectonic changes are occurring not only in the world financial system, trading and investment, energy, geopolitics, and technology; a fundamental transformation is also underway in the way the cities have been managed and regenerated, creating profound implications for mega-cities such as Istanbul. The global population is congregating in our cities. Eighty per cent of the world’s estimated nine billion people in 2050 are expected to live in urban areas. Our cities and urban areas face many challenges from social to health to environmental. The impacts of cities and urban areas are felt in other regions which supply cities with food, water and energy and absorb pollution and waste. However, the proximity of people, businesses and services associated with the very word ‘city’ means that there are also huge opportunities. Indeed, well designed, well managed urban settings offer a key opportunity for sustainable living.

Myriad trends indicate that the current world energy system is far from being sustainable. It will be shaped by rising demand over the long term, dominance of fossil fuels, inaccessible supplies, price volatility, inadequate investment, geopolitical tensions, and climate change. The most pressing decision facing the next generation may be how best to accelerate the transition from a fossil-fuel-based energy system to a system based on climate-friendly energy alternatives. Turkey has emerged as an important actor to reckon with as a consumer, transporter, investor, regional hub, and security provider in world energy and geopolitics. Likewise, Istanbul as a global city and gateway to the world’s major producers and consumers offers so much opportunities for energy investment, conservation, efficiency, distribution and shipment. It also faces serious energy-related challenges including from climate change, congestion, power black-outs, and local pollution. READ MORE

• Mehmet Öğütçü  |  Published on EGF: 02.02.2011  |  Energy
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Today I would like to talk about Turkey in the foreign policy of the EU. I am not going to talk about the European approach to Turkey as it is already well known – especially here in Europe; but I will talk about the position of Turkey in its region, and from the Turkish point of view.

Turkey today is perceived as one of the region’s most sucessful countries. Although it is improving its relations with the east, such as Iran, Russia, Iraq, Syria; its relations with the EU is getting closer to a deadlock.

In my speech, I would like to focus on the new Turkish foreign policy focusing on Turkey’s complicated position as a “bridge” or as a “buffer” between the East and West, namely between the European Union and the Middle East.

• Dr Deniz Altinbaz  |  Published on EGF: 29.01.2011  |  Energy
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January 2011

Key Points:
• The Nabucco pipeline received several pieces of good news in January, but there is little sign of any movement towards commencement of construction works. Further, Italy’s ENI has rejected any possible suggestions that Nabucco could merge with Russia’s South Stream.

• Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Erdogan, has responded to criticisms that new laws advocating the restrictions of alcohol reflect an infringement on personal freedoms of Turkish citizens.

• The widely discussed “conspiracy” of the Sledgehammer coup plot is once again in the lime light, as prosecutors allege plans by the plotters to bomb two Istanbul mosques.

• Following the release of 5 members of the banned (Turkish) Hizbullah organisation in January, a fiery securitypolitical debate has erupted as to whether there is a link between the AKP government and the outlawed group.

• While Istanbul hosts talks between the P5 +1 and Iran over the latter’s nuclear ambitions, Turkey sits out the meeting. A settlement on Cyprus appears impossible after Turkey and the EU sit out January talks in Geneva, with some critics saying this is the end for Turkey’s own EU accession negotiations.

• A day after Saudi Arabia halted its efforts in support of the formation of a new government in Lebanon, the joint Turkish/Qatari mission followed suit, claiming that the disputing Lebanese factions indicated reservations with external proposals to help broker a deal. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.01.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #01
01/24/2011

On January 13-th, 2011, the Ministry of Foreign Affaires of the Czech republic has decided to grant political asylum to Bogdan Danylyshyn. As a reminder, the former Minister of Economy is accused of embezzlement in Ukraine. On October 2010, he was detained on the territory of the Czech Republic upon Interpol request. Later, Kiev demanded his extradition and the accused has asked for a political asylum in the Czech Republic. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 25.01.2011  |  External Relations
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Reviewed by Professor Andrej Kreutz

Markedly different from Helen Belopolski’s monograph ‘Russia and the Challengers: Russian Alignment with China, Iran, and Iraq in the Unipolar Era,’ which I have already reviewed, Jeffery Mankoff’s work, which was published as a Council on Foreign Relations Book, cannot claim to be a non-partisan and purely analytical study.

• Andrej Kreutz  |  Published on EGF: 22.12.2010  |  External Relations
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December 2010

Key positions:
• In recent months Turkey has witnessed harsh prison sentences and threats of litigation by Turkish authorities in response to Kurdish protests and unfavourable press respectively in the past months. This is a worrying sign in that after nearly a decade in power, AKP authorities have become just as reactionary as the military backed governments of previous decades, only this time with an Islamic tinge.

• At the NATO Lisbon Summit on November 19-20, Ankara claimed victory for swaying its allies away from designating Iran as the main threat facing the alliance with regards to a proposed missile defence system which NATO is currently considering. While Turkish government officials indicated prior to the conference that they would demand command and control of the system if based on their territory, in Lisbon, that decision was put off for future discussion.

• Wikileaks’ release of American diplomatic cables have detailed the gossip and personalities of leading AKP politicians, but offered little else that could be described as damaging.

• In regional energy developments, Russia and its energy subsidiary, Gazprom, have been opting for pragmatism over threats in recent months by signing deals throughout the region with Bulgaria, Serbia, and Ukraine in order to strengthen prospects of realising the South Stream gas pipeline. Brussels and Sofia, for their part, have reached an agreement on bank guarantees for Nabucco (the EU’s rival to South Stream). READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.12.2010  |  External Relations
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