Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Prime Minister’s list of concerns grows as he rounds on cohabitation between male and female students in both state-run dormitories and private residences.
• It is a bizarre, if understandable issue to focus on, with the conservative Erdogan likely playing to social issues to stir up his base ahead of election season.
• A second theory behind Erdogan’s sudden concern for students’ lifestyles may be due to an ongoing split with the Gulen movement given its ownership of private schools and dormitories.
• Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq agree to a pipeline deal, but all may not be lost for Baghdad as practical concerns necessitate cooperation for all parties.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 29.11.2013  |  External Relations
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8th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”

On 07-09 November 2013, Mr. George Niculescu, the Head of Research of the European Geopolitical Forum, attended the 8th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau (Austria). Mr. Niculescu moderated the panel on “Alternative Models of Sovereignty in Practice” aiming to propose practical solutions for “joint political and administrative” governance in the South Caucasus. Distinguished panelists from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Germany and the United Kingdom put forward their thoughts on the subject, while the audience consisting of officials and experts from regional and international think tanks, education institutions, and civil society actively debated panelists’ proposals. Mr. Niculescu concluded that: “Rather than trying to impose unilateral solutions involving the final status of the unrecognized political entities in the South Caucasus, regional states and relevant international actors should rather focus creative energies on setting up transitional processes aimed at achieving multilateral governance over the regional commons. Moreover, as suggested by lessons learned in the Western Balkans, region building strategies should effectively complement international efforts for conflict transformation. However, a champion for regional integration is still missing in the South Caucasus. Potentially, the EU could revitalize its involvement in strengthening regionalism in the South Caucasus in strategic coordination with Russia and Turkey“. Click here to see an outline of the workshop and here to see the ensuing policy recommendations.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 14.11.2013
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Special In-Depth Report: Gazprom loses export monopoly as Novatek and Rosneft win the right to export LNG
• Gazprom’s exports to Europe in October jump 17% y-o-y as year-to-date exports increase 16% y-o-y; European Commission Antitrust Regulators prepare charges against Gazprom
• Gazprom demands that Naftogaz pay overdue $900m gas bill for August gas supplies a month ahead of the Ukrainian government’s planned signing of a Free Trade and Association Agreement with the European Union
• South Stream construction begins in Bulgaria with aim of December 2015 launch
• Gazprom and CNPC to finalise deal by year end: Russian Energy Minister
• Gazprom launches its first solo offshore gas production project

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.11.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 16-31st 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey slowly changes tactics in Syria, pulling back support for Islamist fighters who have begun to turn on other opposition forces in the Free Syrian Army and Kurdish militias.
• The Syrian offshoot of the PKK, the PYD, continues to push back groups like Jabhat al Nusra and Islamic State of Iraq and Al Sham. Its leader has called on Turkey to halt its complicity in helping these groups.
• A ceasefire continues to hold between the PKK and Turkish Security Forces, but time is running out for the government to offer substantive next steps at reconciliation. Complicating Turkey’s relations with its own Kurdish minority is the multiple breaks between Kurdish leaders throughout the region.
• Europe and Asia are now connected by rail via the Marmaray Tunnel, though the long term financial sustainability of the economy could be harmed by such projects. Turkey’s economy has slowed considerably, and with the U.S. Federal Reserve set to raise interest rates in 2014, financing the growing budget deficit could be a problem.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.11.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey agrees to a Chinese manufactured missile defense system, worrying its NATO allies.
• The European Commission says Turkey’s bid remains open to joining the EU while criticizing the government’s handling of the Gezi Park protests.
• Turkey’s EU negotiator expresses his doubts towards his Sisyphean task, saying that full membership is not likely.
• Abdullah Ocalan calls on the government to act on its promise to negotiate. The PKK’s military leader in the field has halted the organization’s withdrawal from Turkey, meaning that should talks fail, a resumption of violence would likely soon follow.
• TANAP and TAP pipeline projects move forward, while the KRG has made more than $1 billion in profits shipping oil overland to Turkish ports. The situation continues to draw the ire of Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 28.10.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Gazprom’s Q1 profits rise due to increased sales revenues and reduced ‘retroactive payments’ to European energy; Gas price negotiations between Gazprom & Lithuania continue; Russia and EU agree terms of use for OPAL; Gazprom commissions underground gas storage facility in Kaliningrad and may build Baltic LNG import and export terminals; EU prepares to charge Gazprom with abusing its dominant market position in Central and Eastern Europe; Gazprom asset-swap with BASF to be confirmed by early 2014
• Ukraine faces delay in beginning of gas supplies from Europe via Slovakia; Gazprom and Ukraine reach a compromise over the amount of gas needed to be kept in storage to ensure stable transit of Russian gas via Ukraine in winter 2013-14
• The EU leaves South Stream off its list of Projects of Common Interest
• Gazprom and CNPC agree major T&Cs for gas supplies to China except for price, resulting in a delay to the start of construction of a new pipeline from Russia to China
• Gazprom predicts losses of $16bn from planned freeze of domestic gas price increases, responds with call to freeze proposed Mineral Extraction Tax increases

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.10.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during September 1-30th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Prime Minister Erdogan announces the long-awaited democratization package. While a step in the right direction, the proposal is lacking with regards to many of the challenges the Republic faces.
• The opposition CHP, MHP and BDP voice disappointment with the prime minister’s proposals, but none have pulled out of negotiations at the Constitution Conciliation Commission thus far. A positive sign, if any, exists.
• Protests continue in the country’s major cities, albeit on a more sporadic basis than those in the summer. Reasons behind each demonstration vary, yet the underlying dissatisfaction with the AKP remains a unifying factor regardless of the location.
• Syria’s civil war shows no sign of ending as infighting continues between the opposition forces.
• Turkey tries a different track, making overtures to the PKK-affiliated PYD despite its connections to the separatist group currently in the midst of a ceasefire with the Turkish government.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 07.10.2013  |  External Relations
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by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security

A Long Western Debate and its Political Consequences
Although Russia has been part of the European system since the Westphalian Treaty of 1648, and after its victory in the Northern War with Sweden and the Nystad Treaty in 1721 started to be seen as of he major powers on the continent, both its internal nature and its role in international politics have often suffered Western doubts and uncertainties. READ MORE

• Andrej Kreutz  |  Published on EGF: 19.09.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during August 16-31st 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• A chemical attack is allegedly launched in Damascus’ suburbs, threatening to elicit a U.S. military response and possibly a wider regional war. Turkey backs the Americans, with Prime Minister Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul saying Bashar al-Assad must go.
• Kurdish fighters in northern Syria establish their own administrative areas in the country while continuing to fight jihadist elements of the Free Syrian Army. Their autonomy may be a flashpoint should Turkey be forced to make a ground incursion into Syria.
• Egypt’s military-backed government continues to snipe back at the Turkish prime minister, who has emerged as its most vocal critic outside of Egypt.
• The poor relations between Ankara and Cairo may be costing Turkey influence and money with regional partners who supported the military putsch that unseated Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.09.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Russia warns EU over anti-monopoly investigation; OMV enters into price-revision talks with Gazprom and Statoil; Gazprom and GDF Suez agree to revise their gas contract; Gazprom’s European exports rise 9.6 percent y-o-y in H1 2013, but net profits fall 35 percent; Gazprom cancels calls for bids to prepare project documentation for the Shtokman project; Gazprom subsidiary to enter the Italian fuel market as Gazprom plans an expansion of its own natural gas vehicle (NGV) market
• Ukraine reduces its imports of Russian gas in favour of supplies from Europe
• Russian Stroytransgas to build the overland sections of South Stream in the Balkans
• No new developments in Gazprom-CNPC negotiations, but Putin’s meeting with the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, at the G20 Summit could add fresh impetus
• Gazprom wins auction for Moscow power generation utility, MOEK

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.09.2013  |  External Relations
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